ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Now forecast to become a major hurricane.

Given that Paulette is also forecast to become a major hurricane, this would be our third major of the season.

[aspen]

Now forecast to become a major hurricane.

Given that Paulette is also forecast to become a major hurricane, this would be our third major of the season.

There’s a good chance Teddy is able to bomb out into another Cat 4. Most models are really aggressive with this and so is the normally conservative NHC, and this’ll have plenty of time to rapidly intensify.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Now forecast to become a major hurricane.

Given that Paulette is also forecast to become a major hurricane, this would be our third major of the season.

There’s a good chance Teddy is able to bomb out into another Cat 4. Most models are really aggressive with this and so is the normally conservative NHC, and this’ll have plenty of time to rapidly intensify.

Agreed, the bar looks very high for this one. Should be our long-tracked, high-ACE scoring storm of the season.

[cycloneye]

If it happens, will be impressive RI.

the GFS-based SHIPS guidance indicates
that there is a 50-50 chance that the depression will strengthen
by at least 65 kt during the next 3 days, which is 10 times higher
than the climatological mean.

[aspen]

If TD20’s path in 72-120 hours shifts just a little over to the west, it’ll go over much higher OHC and help the likely phase of RI in a few days.

[plasticup]

If TD20’s path in 72-120 hours shifts just a little over to the west, it’ll go over much higher OHC and help the likely phase of RI in a few days.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al20/ohcnfcst/2020al20_ohcnfcst_202009131800.gif

And the trend has been to the west. I think Bermuda needs to keep an eye on this one too

[us89]

If not for Paulette and Sally currently threatening land, this thread would probably be a lot more active and filled with people predicting the likelihood of this storm reaching cat 5 status. (Either that or people writing it off because it's not a TS yet.)

Instead, this thread sits relatively quiet.

[ClarCari]

If not for Paulette and Sally currently threatening land, this thread would probably be a lot more active and filled with people predicting the likelihood of this storm reaching cat 5 status. (Either that or people writing it off because it's not a TS yet.)

Instead, this thread sits relatively quiet.

Maybe for the best too. I’d rather not hype this up to an extremely powerful fish ACE generator only to jinx it..
Let’s let this one surprise us

[plasticup]

I’m not 100% convinced that TD20 will recurve but we will see.

Why not? All indications for the past few days are that this will likely be a fish storm with little if any land threat.

GFS-parallel has a Bermuda landfall.

[TheStormExpert]

I’m not 100% convinced that TD20 will recurve but we will see.

Why not? All indications for the past few days are that this will likely be a fish storm with little if any land threat.

GFS-parallel has a Bermuda landfall.

That model hasn’t been run since 00z Wednesday on Tropical Tidbits?

All other reliable models such as the current-GFS, Euro, and CMC recurve this well East of Bermuda.

[plasticup]

Why not? All indications for the past few days are that this will likely be a fish storm with little if any land threat.

GFS-parallel has a Bermuda landfall.

That model hasn’t been run since 00z Wednesday on Tropical Tidbits?

All other reliable models such as the current-GFS, Euro, and CMC recurve this well East of Bermuda.

Fair point! Thanks for correcting me

[CrazyC83]

I know Sally, and to a lesser extent Paulette, are really stealing the spotlight...but if this can take off and bomb out, I think attention would turn back.

[Blinhart]

I think this will be the one that gets to Cat 5, jut hopes it doesn't hit any land.

[Ptarmigan]

I would not be surprised if this becomes a Category 5 hurricane.

[aspen]

I think this will be the one that gets to Cat 5, jut hopes it doesn't hit any land.

I’m not excluding that possibility either. If it’s a little further west (56-58W instead of 52-54W by the time it hits 18-20N), it’ll hit waters that are without a doubt warm enough for a Cat 5. At the very least, 115-125 kt seems reasonable.

[CrazyC83]

We just need to hope it doesn't run into a building ridge. I agree the ceiling is quite high here.

[SconnieCane]

We just need to hope it doesn't run into a building ridge. I agree the ceiling is quite high here.

I believe I saw one Euro run that showed it bumping into a ridge around 30N and getting forced back to the west. Future for this one not set in stone by any means.

[ElectricStorm]

I think this will be the one that gets to Cat 5, jut hopes it doesn't hit any land.

Welp if there's any storm to do it, then the 20th storm of 2020 with the 20th letter of the alphabet would be the one to do it lol

[Fancy1001]

We should all be happy that Paullete and Rene are preventing Teddy from being able to go into the carribian.

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 20, 2020091406, , BEST, 0, 133N, 398W, 35, 1004, TS,