ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

New Levi Cowan video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZM6U84xWOY

So Sally could end up making landfall significantly later than the expected late Monday/early Tuesday time frame depending on how slow it is . That’s a little worrying to say the least, because it means extra time over water.

[Visioen]

New Levi Cowan video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZM6U84xWOY

So Sally could end up making landfall significantly later than the expected late Monday/early Tuesday time frame depending on how slow it is . That’s a little worrying to say the least, because it means extra time over water.

Basically nothing is set in stone yet. Tricky forecast so close to landfall.

[tropicwatch]

Looking like shower activity filling in on the north side now.

[EquusStorm]

If I were on the Mississippi coast or the AL barrier islands I would probably reserve a room inland anyway just in case the rather aggressive HMON/HWRF scenarios verify. Usually would not be too keen on their exact tracking but the HWRF has nailed the evolution of the storm thus far and it's too close to take the chance of coastal flooding cutting off escape routes should the eastward/stronger shift verify. Not a fun forecast to have to make.

[PandaCitrus]

Yeah, first with Michael, then Laura, there's something odd going on about storms strengthening in the north gulf upon landfall the last couple years. Typically, they break apart approaching the continental landmass sucking in all that dry air. We'll see what happens with Sally but strengthening approaching land is not ideal.

If I were on the Mississippi coast or the AL barrier islands I would probably reserve a room inland anyway just in case the rather aggressive HMON/HWRF scenarios verify. Usually would not be too keen on their exact tracking but the HWRF has nailed the evolution of the storm thus far and it's too close to take the chance of coastal flooding cutting off escape routes should the eastward/stronger shift verify. Not a fun forecast to have to make.

[Jr0d]

Sanibel island is getting absolutely crushed by that feeder band. Radar estimates of 12" already per the flash flood warning text. Now they have a band stuck over them with torrential rain rates and tornadic potential. you don't need to be in the sustained gales of a system for a high end impact. amazing..

I have been watching that. The SE quadrant bias been dropping a lot of rain. For a relatively small storm the flooding impacts have already been fairly widespread. Hopefully those in the warning areas are aware of this and taking precautions.

Had I known how much rain we had it store, I would have gotten sandbags.

[tolakram]

Yeah, first with Michael, then Laura, there's something odd going on about storms strengthening in the north gulf upon landfall the last couple years. Typically, they break apart approaching the continental landmass sucking in all that dry air. We'll see what happens with Sally but strengthening approaching land is not ideal.

If I were on the Mississippi coast or the AL barrier islands I would probably reserve a room inland anyway just in case the rather aggressive HMON/HWRF scenarios verify. Usually would not be too keen on their exact tracking but the HWRF has nailed the evolution of the storm thus far and it's too close to take the chance of coastal flooding cutting off escape routes should the eastward/stronger shift verify. Not a fun forecast to have to make.

The persistent idea that storms in the gulf weaken close to landfall came up because a few in a row did therefor it seemed normal. Just like everything it all depends on weather patterns at the time of landfall. In 2018 we had this crop up when Michael was approaching land, even had one poster making up inland low temps as proof of why storms weakened. I suggest there is no normal or evidence of typical behavior. There is no magic property in the gulf that usually makes storms weaken.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definitely one of those situations where every jog west/east matters significantly, especially as the storm will be crawling once it approaches the coastline. If it makes landfall in LA, we'll be looking at a weaker Cat 1/2 storm. If it makes landfall in MS, Cat 2/3 is possible.

[tropicwatch]

Approaching center and HH appears to have comm problems, great.

[DestinHurricane]

Yeah, first with Michael, then Laura, there's something odd going on about storms strengthening in the north gulf upon landfall the last couple years. Typically, they break apart approaching the continental landmass sucking in all that dry air. We'll see what happens with Sally but strengthening approaching land is not ideal.

If I were on the Mississippi coast or the AL barrier islands I would probably reserve a room inland anyway just in case the rather aggressive HMON/HWRF scenarios verify. Usually would not be too keen on their exact tracking but the HWRF has nailed the evolution of the storm thus far and it's too close to take the chance of coastal flooding cutting off escape routes should the eastward/stronger shift verify. Not a fun forecast to have to make.

The trend of storms strengthening as they approach the northern gulf coast is not unprecedented. Yes, Ivan, Dennis, Opal, Katrina weakened but storms like Eloise and Camille and others strengthened up until landfall.

[Visioen]

To me it looks like towers are wrapping around the center.

[ClarCari]

Yeah, first with Michael, then Laura, there's something odd going on about storms strengthening in the north gulf upon landfall the last couple years. Typically, they break apart approaching the continental landmass sucking in all that dry air. We'll see what happens with Sally but strengthening approaching land is not ideal.

If I were on the Mississippi coast or the AL barrier islands I would probably reserve a room inland anyway just in case the rather aggressive HMON/HWRF scenarios verify. Usually would not be too keen on their exact tracking but the HWRF has nailed the evolution of the storm thus far and it's too close to take the chance of coastal flooding cutting off escape routes should the eastward/stronger shift verify. Not a fun forecast to have to make.

The trend of storms strengthening as they approach the northern gulf coast is not unprecedented. Yes, Ivan, Dennis, Opal, Katrina weakened but storms like Eloise and Camille and others strengthened up until landfall.

I think 2005 drilled it into alot of people that storms weaken upon landfall in the gulf. Wilma actually strengthened to Cat.3 at landfall but since the rest of the gulf storms that made landfall that year weakened to a Cat.3 that didn’t matter.

[AnnularCane]

Yeah, first with Michael, then Laura, there's something odd going on about storms strengthening in the north gulf upon landfall the last couple years. Typically, they break apart approaching the continental landmass sucking in all that dry air. We'll see what happens with Sally but strengthening approaching land is not ideal.

The trend of storms strengthening as they approach the northern gulf coast is not unprecedented. Yes, Ivan, Dennis, Opal, Katrina weakened but storms like Eloise and Camille and others strengthened up until landfall.

I think 2005 drilled it into alot of people that storms weaken upon landfall in the gulf. Wilma actually strengthened to Cat.3 at landfall but since the rest of the gulf storms that made landfall that year weakened to a Cat.3 that didn’t matter.

I think it's mainly northern Gulf storms that are thought to weaken before landfall? Wilma didn't hit the northern Gulf.

But yeah, I used to have that notion myself, up until Michael. Even though I think I knew that not all of them did. Heck, look at Cindy 2005 as another example. I had been through that one, so I probably should have known better.

[bella_may]

I’m still not ruling out Sally becoming cat 3 before landfall

[ClarCari]

The trend of storms strengthening as they approach the northern gulf coast is not unprecedented. Yes, Ivan, Dennis, Opal, Katrina weakened but storms like Eloise and Camille and others strengthened up until landfall.

I think 2005 drilled it into alot of people that storms weaken upon landfall in the gulf. Wilma actually strengthened to Cat.3 at landfall but since the rest of the gulf storms that made landfall that year weakened to a Cat.3 that didn’t matter.

I think it's mainly northern Gulf storms that are thought to weaken before landfall? Wilma didn't hit the northern Gulf.

I’d say It was on the borderish of the gulf/caribbean lol Either way it didn’t help the precedent that all the rest U.S. major landfalls in that historic year weakened upon landfall.

[TheStormExpert]

The trend of storms strengthening as they approach the northern gulf coast is not unprecedented. Yes, Ivan, Dennis, Opal, Katrina weakened but storms like Eloise and Camille and others strengthened up until landfall.

I think 2005 drilled it into alot of people that storms weaken upon landfall in the gulf. Wilma actually strengthened to Cat.3 at landfall but since the rest of the gulf storms that made landfall that year weakened to a Cat.3 that didn’t matter.

I think it's mainly northern Gulf storms that are thought to weaken before landfall? Wilma didn't hit the northern Gulf.

But yeah, I used to have that notion myself, up until Michael. Even though I think I knew that not all of them did. Heck, look at Cindy 2005 as another example. I had been through that one, so I probably should have known better.

La Niñas tend to feature more shear in the GoM. Michael in 2018 happened in a warm-neutral ENSO. Although 2005 was cool-neutral it behaved much more like a La Niña.

[Nimbus]

Approaching center and HH appears to have comm problems, great.

They found pressures down around 998 MB's but the profile is kind of shallow which is a good thing because it means RI is not imminent.

[bella_may]

Hearing some thunder now

[TheStormExpert]

To me it looks like towers are wrapping around the center.

https://i.imgur.com/Z4bUdYV.gif

Still has quite a bit of work to do if it wants to become a hurricane. But this is the best she’s looked all day!

[RL3AO]

First time the convection has made it to the north side of the LL center (blue x).