ATL: SALLY - Models

[PTPatrick]

Canadian coming in....do we still look at Canadian? Slightly east of previous run out to 36...but it is the weird One to bring it way west to just west of the tip of the mouth of the miss river before it shoots north

Edit: basically final landfall 48 hrs in bay St. Louis via the far eastern parishes, a good shift East for the Canadian all around

[Steve]

HMON is out to 9h on TT. 985 and about to cross 87W at about 28.7N. Crazy how many storms have been west of 70/80/85/90 this season.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91400&fh=9

[PTPatrick]

Out to 18 hrs an not much change on the HMON. But I’m guessing it’s a tad west this time...it landfalled in Pascagoula earlier.

At 30 it’s a few miles west, and a bit stronger...depicting 107 knots. Not nice

[Steve]

How to 18 hrs an not much change on the HMON. But I’m guessing it’s a tad west this time...it landfalled in Pascagoula earlier.

It should be close. HWRF is also running but only out to 3h.

[PTPatrick]

Hwrf coming in now too, a tad stronger at 15 hrs and again, a tad west. HMoN coming in to Jackson Count again at 960 mb.

Edit. Well We have consistency? Hmon and HWRF barely budged off their landfall strengths or locations. 100 mph on hwrf landfall Gulfport, 110 HMON into Pascagoula

[smw1981]

Hwrf coming in now too, a tad stronger at 15 hrs and again, a tad west. HMoN coming in to Jackson Count again at 960 mb.

When does the HMON have it coming into Jackson County (at what hour)? Thanks!

[bella_may]

HMON is almost 5-10mb lower at landfall this run

[smw1981]

HMON is almost 5-10mb lower at landfall this run

Where does it end up? I am also in Mobile so just wondering if it is closer to us or further west..

[bella_may]

HMON and HWRF are consistent. Still have borderline cat 3 hitting the MS coast

[PTPatrick]

Hwrf coming in now too, a tad stronger at 15 hrs and again, a tad west. HMoN coming in to Jackson Count again at 960 mb.

When does the HMON have it coming into Jackson County (at what hour)? Thanks!

39 hrs...Tuesday afternoon

[bella_may]

HMON is almost 5-10mb lower at landfall this run

Where does it end up? I am also in Mobile so just wondering if it is closer to us or further west..

Pascagoula. Pretty much the same as the last run

[Steve]

HWRF hits Harrison County Tuesday morning upper 960’s. A once in a while daytime landfall.

[PTPatrick]

Nearing some consensus on Mississippi but especially 12z model rundown

Trend: Globals (CMC, GFS and Euro) all clip south eastern parishs to some extent on the way into MS. Hurricane models are a bit more East and stronger

Icon: slows down more than others shunts it East toward Gulf shores...nam similar. Not really buying them at this point but if it stalls bears watching.

GFS: Tuesday afternoon landfall Bay St Louis. Barely shifted west.
HMON: cat2 bordering 3 into Pascagoula Tuesday afternoon no change
Hwrf: solid cat1/2 into Gulfport. No change
CMC: Bay St Louis ...shifted East
Euro: Ocean Springs/Pascagoula...shifted East

[bella_may]

00z euro initialized at least 10mb too weak

[PTPatrick]

Would love to see what kinda strength Euro hits Jackson County with. I don’t have access to those maps. But landfall on it just a bit west of the HMON so wondering if it’s higher res maps depict a cat 2

[bella_may]

Big shift east on the 00Z euro. Landfall close to the MS/AL border. Stronger as well

[bella_may]

Would love to see what kinda strength Euro hits Jackson County with. I don’t have access to those maps. But landfall on it just a bit west of the HMON so wondering if it’s higher res maps depict a cat 2

Was wondering the same thing. Hopefully someone in here has it

[shah83]

Big difference between Euro and other models, the landfall process is materially slower. Bigger rainfall totals.

[PTPatrick]

Big difference between Euro and other models, the landfall process is materially slower. Bigger rainfall totals.

Yes just realized that! A full day to get from Buras LA to Northeast Jackson county...that would suck...

[Audrey2Katrina]

Sure would like to see the next models. The NHC has the storm moving at 270°-- due west. This could change the whole game.