ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3354
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1721 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:56 am

LLC likely being rocked around by that titanic burst of convection.
3 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

bella_may
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 908
Joined: Wed Dec 22, 2010 2:13 pm
Location: SE Mississippi coast

Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1722 Postby bella_may » Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:58 am

HWRF has been right on
0 likes   

xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2522
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1723 Postby xironman » Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:59 am

At least we have core

F. Eye Character: Open in the northwest
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
2 likes   

cfisher

Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1724 Postby cfisher » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:00 am

That 993 drop is from the last pass.
0 likes   

User avatar
PTPatrick
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1831
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:38 am

Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1725 Postby PTPatrick » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:01 am

Looks like landfall around ocean springs on this advisory...and once again they phoned in the surge forecast for Jackson county, still showing 5-8 ft but have higher values west of where they have center coming in. Makes no sense. Jackson county would be in the 7-11 range if their track verifies
Last edited by PTPatrick on Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:03 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11501
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1726 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:01 am

Miss Piggy is running at 700mb - hurricane mode.
1 likes   

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2587
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1727 Postby kevin » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:01 am

Pressure down to 991 mbar in the latest NHC advisory with 65 mph winds. The current NHC forecast peaks at 80 knots, up 5 knots from the previous discussion.
Last edited by kevin on Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   

User avatar
Extratropical94
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3538
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany
Contact:

Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1728 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:02 am

991.3 mb extrapolated,

the last pass had 994.9 and the dropsonde showed 993/20 -> 991.

Smells like sub-990 to me.
4 likes   
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1729 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:02 am

Full on 3/4 eyewall forming...

and pressure down to 991 ish..
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

hurricaneCW
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1794
Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2010 6:20 am
Location: Toms River, NJ

Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1730 Postby hurricaneCW » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:04 am

wxman57 wrote:Center is still near western edge of convection. That is NOT the center in that black circle above. We have landfall near Gulfport as a 75-85 mph hurricane around 8pm tomorrow.


Concur with what others have stated. It's certainly possible the center is getting bounced around but it's clearly much closer to that convective burst. Recon has confirmed as well.

I think 75-85mph is rather conservative if the center is indeed close to the convective burst.
0 likes   

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2587
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1731 Postby kevin » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:05 am

Is recon gonna make another pass?
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1732 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:06 am

I'll be honest: the recent convective evolution over the last 3 h is deeply concerning. Radar now shows convection building into the upshear quadrants. Pressure has been dropping like a rock. These are all signs we are in the midst of an RI event. It is possible shear can disrupt the primitive inner core before it closes off, but that is seemingly less and less likely. The HWRF solution looks quite realistic right now. This system poses multiple threats (rainfall, wind, and surge).

I'm just going to re-iterate the NHC key messages below, as I cannot say them any better myself:

KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is too early to determine where Sally's center will move
onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's
northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus
on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average
forecast error at 48 hours is around 80 miles, and dangerous storm
surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the
center.

2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and
Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to
the Alabama/Florida border, where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight within the Hurricane
Warning area in southeastern Louisiana and are expected by late
Tuesday within the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and
Alabama coastline. Tropical storm conditions are likely to begin
later today and this evening in these areas and preparations
should be rushed to completion.

4. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely, as well as widespread
minor to isolated major flooding, on area rivers along and just
inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban
flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is
likely across Mississippi and Alabama through the middle of the
week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across the
Southeast through the week. Sally could continue to produce flash
flooding across the Florida peninsula and prolong existing minor
river flooding across west-central Florida through today.
3 likes   

User avatar
FLpanhandle91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1033
Age: 34
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1733 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:07 am

Recon's center fix is about 15 miles northeast of the NHC 1000AM CDT position
2 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11501
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1734 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:07 am

Very small, very cold-top tower now firing.
This may go sub 10nm pinhole eye.
1 likes   

cfisher

Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1735 Postby cfisher » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:09 am

GCANE wrote:Very small, very cold-top tower now firing.
This may go sub 10nm pinhole eye.

A pinhole for now. I'd expect it to widen given the warming tops near convection further south
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1736 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:11 am

FLpanhandle91 wrote:Recon's center fix is about 15 miles northeast of the NHC 1000AM CDT position


They should.

but there is also another plane that just took off.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

3090
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 549
Age: 65
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2011 4:01 pm

Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1737 Postby 3090 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:11 am

Still too close for comfort for the eastern side of lower Louisiana coast for first landfall. We'll see. It could miss the entire eastern side of the Louisiana coast altogether.
1 likes   

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3391
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1738 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:12 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
FLpanhandle91 wrote:Recon's center fix is about 15 miles northeast of the NHC 1000AM CDT position


They should.

but there is also another plane that just took off.


Hope this is still the center getting its act together and not actual movement.
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5899
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1739 Postby MGC » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:13 am

With the reformation of the center to the NE and into the deep convection I think the chances of Sally becoming a hurricane now are near 100%. Sally's 5KTS forward speed is either due to center reformation or the storm is nearing where it will start to recurve. Sally is looking better on sat loop....might be getting ready to take off......MGC
0 likes   

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6108
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1740 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:14 am

GCANE wrote:Very small, very cold-top tower now firing.
This may go sub 10nm pinhole eye.

Think you're right. There is a very small core forming on radar now.
1 likes   


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 169 guests