CV Season

[Frank2]

We are very fortunate the easterlies did break down early this year. The CV season actually starts around July 4th and ends in September - sometimes by the third week or sometimes around Labor Day, like it did this year.

Bertha (1996) was a good example of a rare early long-track CV hurricane that formed July 5.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bertha

Once the easterlies break down, they may reignite for brief periods until early October, but once the summertime period of sustained easterlies end, waves that move off Africa can take many days before they migrate west, unless they move northward into the break in the subtropical ridge.

Since shear is usually strong in July, it means the true CV season is less than 8 weeks in length.

Considering everything that's been happening, we are very fortunate so far this season.

P.S. Again, this was the forecaster's argument against seasonal forecasts when they began to appear over 35 years ago - there are so many variables a potential busy season might be mitigated for any number of reasons.

[sma10]

We are very fortunate the easterlies did break down early this year. The CV season actually starts around July 4th and ends in September - sometimes by the third week or sometimes around Labor Day, like it did this year.

Bertha (1996) was a good example of a rare early long-track CV hurricane that formed July 5.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bertha

Once the easterlies break down, they may reignite for brief periods until early October, but once the summertime period of sustained easterlies end, waves that move off Africa can take many days before they migrate west, unless they move northward into the break in the subtropical ridge.

Since shear is usually strong in July, it means the true CV season is less than 8 weeks in length.

Considering everything that's been happening, we are very fortunate so far this season.

P.S. Again, this was the forecaster's argument against seasonal forecasts when they began to appear over 35 years ago - there are so many variables a potential busy season might be mitigated for any number of reasons.

This post confuses me
Are you arguing that "we are very fortunate"? If so, why?

Bermuda just got blasted by a hurricane and will have to sweat out Teddy. The gulf is just about to deal with their 3rd landfalling hurricane of the season. Is this a "east coast of Florida only" post?

[ElectricStorm]

We are very fortunate the easterlies did break down early this year. The CV season actually starts around July 4th and ends in September - sometimes by the third week or sometimes around Labor Day, like it did this year.

Bertha (1996) was a good example of a rare early long-track CV hurricane that formed July 5.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bertha

Once the easterlies break down, they may reignite for brief periods until early October, but once the summertime period of sustained easterlies end, waves that move off Africa can take many days before they migrate west, unless they move northward into the break in the subtropical ridge.

Since shear is usually strong in July, it means the true CV season is less than 8 weeks in length.

Considering everything that's been happening, we are very fortunate so far this season.

P.S. Again, this was the forecaster's argument against seasonal forecasts when they began to appear over 35 years ago - there are so many variables a potential busy season might be mitigated for any number of reasons.

Sally is going to be the FOURTH landfalling hurricane in the US this season so far, not to mention everyone else affected by the rest of the storms. Also, I'm not sure what your point is about past forecasters not issuing full season forecasts and how that relates to this year's forecast? Literally all the experts called for a very active season and here we are on Sept. 14 on the V storm...

[CyclonicFury]

We are very fortunate the easterlies did break down early this year. The CV season actually starts around July 4th and ends in September - sometimes by the third week or sometimes around Labor Day, like it did this year.

Bertha (1996) was a good example of a rare early long-track CV hurricane that formed July 5.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bertha

Once the easterlies break down, they may reignite for brief periods until early October, but once the summertime period of sustained easterlies end, waves that move off Africa can take many days before they migrate west, unless they move northward into the break in the subtropical ridge.

Since shear is usually strong in July, it means the true CV season is less than 8 weeks in length.

Considering everything that's been happening, we are very fortunate so far this season.

P.S. Again, this was the forecaster's argument against seasonal forecasts when they began to appear over 35 years ago - there are so many variables a potential busy season might be mitigated for any number of reasons.

Yeah, the CV season ended on Labor Day, we've only had 4 MDR storms since Labor Day

I'd assume you are talking about land impacts specifically to Florida, but still. This season is far from over as we have a rapidly intensifying hurricane threatening the Gulf Coast. Just because Florida has been lucky doesn't mean it has been a quiet season for the entire basin. Seasonal forecasts are intended to predict overall activity for the basin, not just landfalls for Florida.

[sma10]

We are very fortunate the easterlies did break down early this year. The CV season actually starts around July 4th and ends in September - sometimes by the third week or sometimes around Labor Day, like it did this year.

Bertha (1996) was a good example of a rare early long-track CV hurricane that formed July 5.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bertha

Once the easterlies break down, they may reignite for brief periods until early October, but once the summertime period of sustained easterlies end, waves that move off Africa can take many days before they migrate west, unless they move northward into the break in the subtropical ridge.

Since shear is usually strong in July, it means the true CV season is less than 8 weeks in length.

Considering everything that's been happening, we are very fortunate so far this season.

P.S. Again, this was the forecaster's argument against seasonal forecasts when they began to appear over 35 years ago - there are so many variables a potential busy season might be mitigated for any number of reasons.

Yeah, the CV season ended on Labor Day, we've only had 4 MDR storms since Labor Day

I'd assume you are talking about land impacts specifically to Florida, but still. This season is far from over as we have a rapidly intensifying hurricane threatening the Gulf Coast. Just because Florida has been lucky doesn't mean it has been a quiet season for the entire basin. Seasonal forecasts are intended to predict overall activity for the basin, not just landfalls for Florida.

Furthermore, fate should not be tempted. With the base state of this season leaning to hyperactivity, don't be too surprised if the Caribbean starts pumping out cyclones in October and let's see how Florida deals with that

[toad strangler]

We are very fortunate the easterlies did break down early this year. The CV season actually starts around July 4th and ends in September - sometimes by the third week or sometimes around Labor Day, like it did this year.

Bertha (1996) was a good example of a rare early long-track CV hurricane that formed July 5.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bertha

Once the easterlies break down, they may reignite for brief periods until early October, but once the summertime period of sustained easterlies end, waves that move off Africa can take many days before they migrate west, unless they move northward into the break in the subtropical ridge.

Since shear is usually strong in July, it means the true CV season is less than 8 weeks in length.

Considering everything that's been happening, we are very fortunate so far this season.

P.S. Again, this was the forecaster's argument against seasonal forecasts when they began to appear over 35 years ago - there are so many variables a potential busy season might be mitigated for any number of reasons.

This post confuses me
Are you arguing that "we are very fortunate"? If so, why?

Bermuda just got blasted by a hurricane and will have to sweat out Teddy. The gulf is just about to deal with their 3rd landfalling hurricane of the season. Is this a "east coast of Florida only" post?

we are about to get the FOURTH hurricane CONUS landfall and possible 2nd major CONUS landfall and it's only 9/14.

SICK SEASON and it may just unseat 2005. Maybe he meant to post in the FL thread ...

[Frank2]

We forget things could be much worse.

For as long as this site has existed it's been known to be a pro-landfalling strong hurricane people I disagree with haven, but that is not what meteorology is all about. Meteorology is about understanding why the atmosphere behaves as it does, not wishing it would do what a person desires.

If the easterlies had maintained themselves, the four CV systems out there today could be headed west, but instead have or are forecast to recurve. We have to be very thankful for that timing.

I did monitor the observations from Bermuda overnight through TWC, and what they received could have been much worse, the hurricane just in the past few hours intensifying rapidly - after the very ragged eye had already cleared the island.

The other two Cat 1 hurricanes earlier in the season also could have been much worse and were low in the ACE numbers.

Laura was the strongest landfall so far, and even then the massive storm surge that was forecast did not happen even though it was considered an almost sure thing by every forecaster.

It's a very busy time but hoping soon to end - I'm not a JB fan but this morning he stated this might be the final hyperactive burst of the season.

Let's hope so.

[ClarCari]

We forget things could be much worse.

As long as this site has existed it's been known to be a pro-landfalling strong hurricane people I disagree with haven, but that's not what meteorology is all about. Meteorology is about understanding why the atmosphere behaves as it does, not wishing it would do what a person desires.

If the easterlies had maintained themselves, the four CV systems out there today could be headed west, but instead have or are forecast to recurve. We have to be very thankful for that timing.

I did monitor the observations from Bermuda overnight through TWC, and what they received could have been much worse, the hurricane just in the past few hours intensifying rapidly - after the very ragged eye had already cleared the island.

The other two Cat 1 hurricanes earlier in the season also could have been much worse and were low in the ACE numbers.

Laura was the strongest landfall so far, and even then the massive storm surge that was forecast did not happen far inland as was thought an almost sure thing by everyone.

It's a very busy time but hoping soon to end - I'm not a JB fan but this morning he stated this might be the final hyperactive burst of the season.

Let's hope so.

But then you have wishful thinkers who do just what you said. Only they’re -removed- for it to end and looking for any sliver of hope that it might end soon.

It’s also about understanding the now and right now this hyperactive burst doesn’t have an end in sight that we can truthfully see and there is still over a month and a half left of the most active part of hurricane season and then some.
These storms are dangerous and can ruin many lives, but hope for the best and prepare for the worst is always the necessary thing to do.
Pretending the season is gonna go away and not be worse yet isn’t going to help anybody face what lies ahead.

[Frank2]

The season continues through November, but now that the seasonal easterlies have weakened the threat shifts west and that is the next hurdle.

There's a difference between wishing something would disappear and being thankful that what did happen could have been much worse.

[FireRat]

It is deep into the CV season but still some ways to go, especially with this La Niña year, I suspect the CV season may extend into early October.

While rare, CV monsters can come in October. The most infamous example is The Great Hurricane of 1780, also known as San Calixto, which wrecked the Lesser Antilles and PR in Mid-October that year. The storm was likely Cat 5 too.

Now for places like Florida, October is a big month but for Caribbean systems heading north. 2020 is not a typical year, so anything goes IMO.

[psyclone]

These threads serve as a reminder that weather desires go unheard. the weather doesn't know that anyone is interested in it. It also wouldn't care if it did know. Your deep met desires...be they good or bad...make absolutely no difference to the ultimate outcome. the weather does what it is going to do. in this case it is doing a lot...as was expected. That validates seasonal forecasting. the last thing it represents is an argument against it.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

We forget things could be much worse.

For as long as this site has existed it's been known to be a pro-landfalling strong hurricane people I disagree with haven, but that is not what meteorology is all about. Meteorology is about understanding why the atmosphere behaves as it does, not wishing it would do what a person desires.

If the easterlies had maintained themselves, the four CV systems out there today could be headed west, but instead have or are forecast to recurve. We have to be very thankful for that timing.

I did monitor the observations from Bermuda overnight through TWC, and what they received could have been much worse, the hurricane just in the past few hours intensifying rapidly - after the very ragged eye had already cleared the island.

The other two Cat 1 hurricanes earlier in the season also could have been much worse and were low in the ACE numbers.

Laura was the strongest landfall so far, and even then the massive storm surge that was forecast did not happen even though it was considered an almost sure thing by every forecaster.

It's a very busy time but hoping soon to end - I'm not a JB fan but this morning he stated this might be the final hyperactive burst of the season.

Let's hope so.

One small thing - the surge forecast for Laura did in fact verify, just a bit east of predicted. Otherwise, this is a good post that points out that while reality has been pretty terrible in terms of impacts, it could've been worse, and we're lucky to not have to live in that timeline.