ATL: SALLY - Models

[kevin]

06z HWRF and HMON have started

[kevin]

06z HMON slightly weaker than 00z, but still peaks as a 90 kt (104 mph, 167 kmh) cat 2 hurricane. Last frame before landfall is 970 mbar, 87 kots. The frame shown below is the furthest West it gets, landfall is even further East in this run, near Bayou La Batre and later into Mobile, even though the storm is also considerably weaker at that time.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

06z HMON slightly weaker than 00z, but still peaks as a 90 kt (104 mph, 167 kmh) cat 2 hurricane. Last frame before landfall is 970 mbar, 87 kots. The frame shown below is the furthest West it gets, landfall is even further East in this run, near Bayou La Batre and later into Mobile, even though the storm is also considerably weaker at that time.

https://i.imgur.com/weLEHAH.png

Don’t really like waking up to that this morning

[kevin]

06z HWRF slightly stronger than 00z. Peaks as a high end cat 2 hurricane: 965 mbar, 94 kts (108 mph, 174 kmh). So taking 06z HMON and HWRF together, it doesn't look like they're backing down and they're still forecasting a high end cat 2 landfall. However, the path is still very uncertain with HWRF coming in even West of Gulfport.

[N2FSU]

0z Euro


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[Ivanhater]

12Z Early guidance

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[cjrciadt]

Hmmm at the thought of a loopy loop...

[PTPatrick]

Kinda think euro location may be where we end for landfall. Esp if this has any kind of reorg of the center to the ne...which we are watching now.
I would not be amazed to see models shift East a bit more once it pulls around south of Mississippi tonight and slows. Seems like many are now in East Harrison/Jackson county and kinda expecting gfs/hwrf to join soon
Amazing to watch this traverse prime real estate for 3 days and not strengthen. Lucky we are...Were it not for shear.

[Steve]

It's pretty trippy that a few landfalling systems this year have had uncertain tracks within 1-2 days of landfall. While it seems most likely that the MS Gulf Coast will take the hit, we don't even know that for sure. NAM's are jumpy with centers, but 3km keeps edging with a westward component possibly with the inner core close to Boothville'/Venice and then moves toward the MGC landfalling at 10PM local time in Hancock or Harrison Count y tomorrow night.

NAM 12km is still offshore at 39 hours (landfall time of the 3km) south of the MS/AL border with a NE component to landfall (toward AL or NWFL).

HRRR 12z has landfall around Mobile Bay at 7pm tomorrow night.

ICON 12z should be next

[PTPatrick]

I agree Mobile county is not out of the question. If it does go East of Pascagoula would be a huge win for some of these lesser watched models (icon, nam)...now every clock is right twice a day, and wether they get it right for the right reason would be interesting to watch. When you look at the models all of them kind of bumped this around a bit on its way toward the mouth though so I remain unconvinced the center reformation will result in any “huge” swings East or west. BUT storms approaching the northern gulf coast almost always hook East at the last minute, so I will be watching closely as miles mean the differenfe of whether my home town of Pascagoula takes the eye wall and surge , get the dry side, or get far enough to the east to avoid the worst East eyewall effects and surge .

[PTPatrick]

Icon going for Mobile bay again on the 12z

[Steve]

ICON moves WNW toward the Mouth of the MS River and then pulls up toward Mobile County. Landfall @ 979mb or so.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1412&fh=30

[NDG]

06z Euro did a beautiful job forecasting the NE drift towards the MLC.
WNW heading towards the mouth of the MS river after that.

[Steve]

That’s a little too close for comfort. I know it ends up hitting around Harrison County, so it must pull it up N/NNE after that hit on Plaquemines Parish.

[SoupBone]

06z Euro did a beautiful job forecasting the NE drift towards the MLC.
WNW heading towards the mouth of the MS river after that.

https://i.imgur.com/MoLlMd2.gif

Is it just sitting on top of Plaquemines Parish and churning?

[NDG]

06z Euro did a beautiful job forecasting the NE drift towards the MLC.
WNW heading towards the mouth of the MS river after that.

https://i.imgur.com/MoLlMd2.gif

Is it just sitting on top of Plaquemines Parish and churning?

Yes, it shows it churning around for several hours before lifting north to Harrison County.

[Ivanhater]

Yep, most models get to the birdsfoot and start a turn north and north east now, including the every shifting east NHC track, which they say are still on the western side of guidance

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[DestinHurricane]

Yep, most models get to the birdsfoot and start a turn north and north east now, including the every shifting east NHC track, which they say are still on the western side of guidance https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200914/79038aa9b5d6de00403cbdc3d3650dcd.jpg

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Those initialized the previous center.

[Ivanhater]

Yep, most models get to the birdsfoot and start a turn north and north east now, including the every shifting east NHC track, which they say are still on the western side of guidance https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200914/79038aa9b5d6de00403cbdc3d3650dcd.jpg

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Those initialized the previous center.

That's true

[SoupBone]

Yep, most models get to the birdsfoot and start a turn north and north east now, including the every shifting east NHC track, which they say are still on the western side of guidance https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200914/79038aa9b5d6de00403cbdc3d3650dcd.jpg

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Those initialized the previous center.

That's true

And not to inject discussion into the models thread, but Aric's image on the discussion thread would indicate a near due west movement to reach Plaquemines Parish. Kind of like what the Euro was showing, but certainly doesn't seem all that realistic right now.