ATL: SALLY - Models

[tolakram]

12Z GFS

[PTPatrick]

Wow, gfs depicts 970 at landfall in ocean springs, that’s a low pressure for gfs, and quite a shift East. Expect Hwrf will have a doozy of storm hitting jackson county

[NDG]

12z GFS is fairly close to the 06z Euro's landfall, it slows it down closer to the Euro's timing of landfall.
We are starting to get a consensus on timing.

[Ivanhater]

Wow, gfs depicts 970 at landfall in ocean springs, that’s a low pressure for gfs, and quite a shift East. Expect Hwrf will have a doozy of storm hitting jackson county

Also looks like it initialized the old center

[chris_fit]

Posted this in the Global Model thread in Talkin' Tropics, but I think it belongs here too...

A quick mention about the Models and how quickly things can change.

As of the 9/11 00Z Model Runs - Not one ensemble member, Euro nor GFS, had anything close to a system in the GoM out there for Today 9/14.

That's a little over 3 days out, and not one of the Major models had a clue here... And here we are with a Hurricane threatening the Northern Gulf Coast.


Euro:



GFS:

[PTPatrick]

Wow, gfs depicts 970 at landfall in ocean springs, that’s a low pressure for gfs, and quite a shift East. Expect Hwrf will have a doozy of storm hitting jackson county

Also looks like it initialized the old center

Yeah, I wonder how much of an effect that will have. Could easily see gfs end up over Pascagoula or east on the 18z....but it may just all be a wash of wobbles at this point. Fortunately my family is ready and leaving the bayou soon. Best case for them at this point is a dead on AL/MS Line or East landfall, so maybe that still comes to pass. Bayou Le batre and grand bay are not as populated as Pascagoula and don’t have all the expensive waterfront industry...and the have the dauphin island barrier that way...so damage wise probably lower if it hits East of Pascagoula.

[Stormcenter]

Excellent post

Posted this in the Global Model thread in Talkin' Tropics, but I think it belongs here too...

A quick mention about the Models and how quickly things can change.

As of the 9/11 00Z Model Runs - Not one ensemble member, Euro nor GFS, had anything close to a system in the GoM out there for Today 9/14.

That's a little over 3 days out, and not one of the Major models had a clue here... And here we are with a Hurricane threatening the Northern Gulf Coast.


Euro:
https://i.imgur.com/NAdcMh2.png


GFS:
https://i.imgur.com/i1p0EDu.png

[xironman]

Will really have to wait for the 18z models that have had the ability to ingest all the new data to have a skillful forecast.

[bella_may]

12Z GFS into Gulfport at 973mb. Much stronger

[Ivanhater]

12Z guidance with new center location

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[p1nheadlarry]

Wow, gfs depicts 970 at landfall in ocean springs, that’s a low pressure for gfs, and quite a shift East. Expect Hwrf will have a doozy of storm hitting jackson county

Also looks like it initialized the old center

Not completely unexpected; observations are assimilated with previous model output is used as the first guess (eg 'cycling') and to update boundary conditions, plus interpolating everything to proper grid res. More recent obs will eventually nudge it to a more accurate intensity/location.

I feel it's fairly common knowledge here, but just sharing as a reminder. In the past I'd sometimes see "the model initialized the storm wrong" posts, which kinda grinds my gears; they don't just plop a 985 storm in the domain because the HH data says so lol. You're not guilty of that btw. Again, just thought I'd share.

[Ivanhater]

Wow, gfs depicts 970 at landfall in ocean springs, that’s a low pressure for gfs, and quite a shift East. Expect Hwrf will have a doozy of storm hitting jackson county

Also looks like it initialized the old center

Not completely unexpected; observations are assimilated with previous model output is used as the first guess (eg 'cycling') and to update boundary conditions, plus interpolating everything to proper grid res. More recent obs will eventually nudge it to a more accurate intensity/location.

I feel it's fairly common knowledge here, but just sharing as a reminder. In the past I'd sometimes see "the model initialized the storm wrong" posts, which kinda grinds my gears; they don't just plop a 985 storm in the domain because the HH data says so lol. You're not guilty of that btw. Again, just thought I'd share.

No worries. Absolutely great post. Thank you!

[chris_fit]

Are all 3 of those loops the hurricane models that bring it back down south?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Still has ~36 hours left over water if the GFS is to be believed.

[PTPatrick]

Looks like hwrf going for 960 borderline 2/3 into state line area

[bella_may]

Looks like hwrf going for 960 borderline 2/3 into state line area

Also goes due North after landfall instead of hooking right. Interesting

[Ivanhater]

Looks like hwrf going for 960 borderline 2/3 into state line area

Pretty big shift east. Alabama state line is looking more and more like the target as the 12 guidance I posted shows.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Looks like hwrf going for 960 borderline 2/3 into state line area

Pretty big shift east. Alabama state line is looking more and more like the target as the 12 guidance I posted shows.

IH I have been reading your posts for around 15 years now, and have always considered yours to hold a lot of weight, but honestly Brother you aren't doing a thing for my health this afternoon!

[Ivanhater]

Looks like hwrf going for 960 borderline 2/3 into state line area

Pretty big shift east. Alabama state line is looking more and more like the target as the 12 guidance I posted shows.

IH I have been reading your posts for around 15 years now, and have always considered yours to hold a lot of weight, but honestly Brother you aren't doing a thing for my health this afternoon!

I think everyone in Mississppi Alabama and NW Florida are right there with you right now!

[Ivanhater]

12Z Ukmet into Pensacola ..965 mb

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