ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Jag95
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1821 Postby Jag95 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:54 am

Unless it starts taking more of a westward tilt, I'm thinking this may be going to end up closer to the MS/AL line.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1822 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:55 am

Whoa this escalated quickly :eek:
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1823 Postby Buck » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:55 am

Might have a long day ahead of us... I'm already struggling to focus on the work I need to get done... dang Sally...

Also, I just discovered this forum has a feature where you can ignore users!
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1824 Postby Jonny » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:56 am

Big/Mustang Sally is coming!
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1825 Postby Kazmit » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:56 am

Wow, it's really RI'ing now. :eek:
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1826 Postby us89 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:56 am

DestinHurricane wrote:
cfisher wrote:This is definitely already a Cat 2 in the NE quadrant.


Not quite. FL winds are higher than surface.


Recon data would support surface winds of 80 kt - so a high end, 90 mph category 1.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1827 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:57 am

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1828 Postby cfisher » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:57 am

GFS initialized a whole degree latitude too far west. Yikes
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1829 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:57 am

That center location from the earlier 991mb reading is definitely a short term at least NW movement.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1830 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:58 am

Sally is going through RI at the moment! :eek:

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1305535792274644995


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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1831 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:59 am

eyewall wrapping around to the west and SW side now..

not good. if that closes off..

talk about a rude awakening for northern gulf coast people

and the North/NE turn from the stronger ensemble members is looking more likely now.. so Mobile and even western panhandle are back in play..
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1832 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:59 am

Weather Dude wrote:Whoa this escalated quickly :eek:

Be thankful the shear kept her in check all day yesterday or we’d likely be looking at another Laura or worse.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1833 Postby gfsperpendicular » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:00 am

Buck wrote:Also, I just discovered this forum has a feature where you can ignore users!


This is ominously enthusiastic lol
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1834 Postby hurricaneCW » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:00 am

Landfall could end up over or just east of Mobile, AL

Massive swath of flooding will be greatest danger, surge risks will increase as well. I think the impacts could be much worse than Laura.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1835 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:01 am

After the VDM, I'd expect a Special Advisory - probably about 11:30 am CT.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1836 Postby tiger_deF » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:01 am

It might be worse that it only just started seriously intensifying now while it looked like slop for days, better chance of inner core features causing some weakening and people would expect it. If this becomes a major cane, people will be totally unprepared, especially to the west
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1837 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:03 am

Hurricane now! 85 mph!

Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1100 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT SALLY HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED
TO A HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Sally
indicate the system has rapidly strengthened to a hurricane,
with maximum sustained winds of around 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09
inches).

A Special Advisory will be issued shortly to update the intensity
forecast for Sally.


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 86.9W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
Last edited by galaxy401 on Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1838 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:03 am

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT SALLY HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED TO A HURRICANE...
11:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 14
Location: 28.6°N 86.9°W
Moving: WNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1839 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:04 am

Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1100 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT SALLY HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED
TO A HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Sally
indicate the system has rapidly strengthened to a hurricane,
with maximum sustained winds of around 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09
inches).

A Special Advisory will be issued shortly to update the intensity
forecast for Sally.


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 86.9W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1840 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:04 am

Image
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