ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cfisher]

Gonna be nuts when we have the dreaded -80s eyewall in a few hours.

[MGC]

As they say, never turn your back on the sea.....or in this case a storm in the GOM. Impressive intensification burst this morning. Trouble lies ahead. Sally looks to be in a favorable environment to continue to intensify.....little if any shear, moist atmosphere and plenty warm Gulf waters. Hold on to your hats....MGC

[DestinHurricane]

All bets are off once she closes at eyewall off. Hopefully she manages to come on shore quicker than expected because another 24+ hours for an RI'ing storm is just plain bad news.

This will almost certainly be a major once they eyewall closes off. The only thing that’ll stop her is a delayed closing of the eyewall.

Michael would like a word with you!

[NDG]

With a good 30-36 hrs before landfall somewhere between MS & AL, I would not doubt if Sally gets up to a Cat 3.
IMO.

[TheProfessor]

I'm just going to put this plainly. I've seen a lot of downplaying with this storm and as someone who is very interested how meteorologist communicate with the public and how what we say affects thought(Actually this is something I've been wondering if I can pursue a PHD in recently.), I think we need to be very careful what meteorologist, specifically tell the public. Yes this is a board of weather enthusiasts, however we are all on different paths in our weather knowledge and sometimes I see people take what a meteorologist says an run with it. We also get a ton of guests this year that may not be as knowledgeable about the weather. I think everyone on this board holds a bit more power than we might imagine and it does need to be used wisely. This goes either way as well when a storm is overhyped. It's best that we don't find ourselves wavering between each models run.

In regards to this particular setup I think it a great example of what Dr. Ariel Cohen always told us when he came to visit Ohio State. Although geared towards severe weather, it's best to stick to the basics and not get caught up in small variance that's impossible to forecast. For severe weather it was always, "Do you have Shear? Do you have Lift? Do you have Instability? Do you have Moisture? If yes, then you forecast severe weather." The setup was conducive for quick intensification of a storm, there's always a chance that it doesn't happen, but when the setup is clear, then you have the forecast that. I think the NHC did well with their initial estimate at 85 knots at landfall as they're always going to be a bit conservative with their forecast.

My final statement is the most important one. Everyone reading this should ALWAYS listen to your local NWS forecasters and the NHC over a random guy like me on the internet.

[Ivanhater]

.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[Florabamaman]

I saw alot of folks on here yesterday writing her off...never, ever underestimate the Gulf!

It's an unwritten rule of tropics gawking!

Also, your username. Going to pretend you're not a 'FLO-GROWN' Bama fan...

Born and raised in Bama...Florida transplant due to work. I've been through lots of tropical weather living in the gulf and the fact is you never know what's going to happen when these storms get into the bathtub.

[Stormgodess]

All bets are off once she closes at eyewall off. Hopefully she manages to come on shore quicker than expected because another 24+ hours for an RI'ing storm is just plain bad news.

And sadly many people will be caught off guard. As was mentioned above, just like here on the forum, many people blew her off days ago.

Down here often a Cat 1 is scoffed at.

I learned my lesson with Isaac. In an area that never flooded, and out of nowhere needing rescue from National Guard with a high water vehicle

[northjaxpro]

I'm just going to put this plainly. I've seen a lot of downplaying with this storm and as someone who is very interested how meteorologist communicate with the public and how what we say affects thought(Actually this is something I've been wondering if I can pursue a PHD in recently.), I think we need to be very careful what meteorologist, specifically tell the public. Yes this is a board of weather enthusiasts, however we are all on different paths in our weather knowledge and sometimes I see people take what a meteorologist says an run with it. We also get a ton of guests this year that may not be as knowledgeable about the weather. I think everyone on this board holds a bit more power than we might imagine and it does need to be used wisely. This goes either way as well when a storm is overhyped. It's best that we don't find ourselves wavering between each models run.

In regards to this particular setup I think it a great example of what Dr. Ariel Cohen always told us when he came to visit Ohio State. Although geared towards severe weather, it's best to stick to the basics and not get caught up in small variance that's impossible to forecast. For severe weather it was always, "Do you have Shear? Do you have Lift? Do you have Instability? Do you have Moisture? If yes, then you forecast severe weather." The setup was conducive for quick intensification of a storm, there's always a chance that it doesn't happen, but when the setup is clear, then you have the forecast that. I think the NHC did well with their initial estimate at 85 knots at landfall as they're always going to be a bit conservative with their forecast.

My final statement is the most important one. Everyone reading this should ALWAYS listen to your local NWS forecasters and the NHC over a random guy like me on the internet.

Well said Professor.

[KimmieLa]

All bets are off once she closes at eyewall off. Hopefully she manages to come on shore quicker than expected because another 24+ hours for an RI'ing storm is just plain bad news.

This will almost certainly be a major once they eyewall closes off. The only thing that’ll stop her is a delayed closing of the eyewall.

Seems like I remember yesterday that the NHC said this would happen and that before landfall shear would increase. She still appears to be rather lopsided with hardly any rain to her southwest. It's a wonder she has intensified this much in such a short span. Where is that shear? It needs to do its job.

[TheStormExpert]

So if Sally moves slower does that increase the likelihood of her making a run at major status?

[bella_may]

.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200914/bf6167919064314794ac724c1e3204f8.jpg

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

I’m about 30 miles north of Pascagoula (pretty close to the AL line). Think I’m in trouble either way lol

[ClarCari]

All bets are off once she closes at eyewall off. Hopefully she manages to come on shore quicker than expected because another 24+ hours for an RI'ing storm is just plain bad news.

This will almost certainly be a major once they eyewall closes off. The only thing that’ll stop her is a delayed closing of the eyewall.

Seems like I remember yesterday that the NHC said this would happen and that before landfall shear would increase. She still appears to be rather lopsided with hardly any rain to her southwest. It's a wonder she has intensified this much in such a short span. Where is that shear? It needs to do its job.

The stronger a storm is, the effect shear has on it decreases expontentially compared to the weaker a system is.

[Ian2401]

is a stronger sally more subject to moving poleward and thus perhaps turning north sooner? need someone smarter than me to answer this lol

[supercane4867]

Satellite presentation is very bloomy...

[p1nheadlarry]

I would guess they extend hurricane watches into FL this evening

[Aric Dunn]

That is one tiny eye..
lets hope it does not close off..

[cfisher]

That is one tiny eye..
lets hope it does not close off..

Eye seems fairly large?

[cheezyWXguy]

That is one tiny eye..
lets hope it does not close off..

Looks like it may be closing on mobile radar

[Aric Dunn]

That is one tiny eye..
lets hope it does not close off..

Eye seems fairly large?