ATL: SALLY - Models

[p1nheadlarry]

12Z Ukmet into Pensacola ..965 mb

Well that's not cool (if verifies). Somebody sandbag the Tin Cow stat!

[NDG]

12z Euro continues with its eastward trend, is aiming eastern MS, for now.

[PTPatrick]

Yup. Think euro is going to be a State line landfall. Still 48 hrs out! And strong.

[ColdMiser123]

12z Euro continues with its eastward trend, is aiming eastern MS, for now.

Still >2 days over water if the Euro is correct. That would be remarkable, and the ceiling for this would be raised if that happened.

[NDG]

Wow, I hope Gulfshores and Pensacola is getting ready for this if the latest 12z Euro continues with its trend.
Much stronger run.

[NDG]

Euro is pointing towards Mobile Bay!

[PTPatrick]

12z Euro continues with its eastward trend, is aiming eastern MS, for now.

Still >2 days over water if the Euro is correct. That would be remarkable, and the ceiling for this would be raised if that happened.

Ceiling raised but sheer should kick tomorrow at some time. Could perhaps bring wind back to cat 2 ....but wouldn’t help the water situation

[ColdMiser123]

Keep in mind too that the Euro is ~10 mb too weak with Sally at this point. So the vortex is stronger than forecast, and should be more resilient to any kind of increase in shear as it approaches the Gulf Coast than what the Euro shows.

[Ivanhater]

I think I am going to be sick

[PTPatrick]

Euro is pointing towards Mobile Bay!

https://i.imgur.com/G4ME2ld.png

Wednesday afternoon still not on shore...such a stupid storm. Not sure I buy it but Alabama is now firmly in the high risk zone if it wasn’t already.

[PTPatrick]

Keep in mind too that the Euro is ~10 mb too weak with Sally at this point. So the vortex is stronger than forecast, and should be more resilient to any kind of increase in shear as it approaches the Gulf Coast than what the Euro shows.

If it’s undergoes RI today...would that portend it getting either west or turn quicker?

[NDG]

MS/AL state line, but not until past midnight Wednesday night!

[DestinHurricane]

Euro is still a little weak considering current organizational trends. If it is stronger it could end up even more east. Ensembles will be interesting.

[bella_may]

So that’s three (I think) models that take it into Pascagoula now

[NDG]

Euro is still a little weak considering current organizational trends. If it is stronger it could end up even more east. Ensembles will be interesting.

It does strengthens it prior to landfall while it stalls south of MS, down 973 mb.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro makes the right turn over water and comes back to AL/FL as a weakening storm. Interesting. Pics soon.

[FixySLN]

Going to see a bit of a windshield wiper effect as Sally speeds up and slows down, wobble occur, sheer effect, etc.. Anybody between SE LA and Pensacola should be on their toes. TONS of rain, lots of storm surge, some wind.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[Dean4Storms]

That 12z ECM run is very concerning.