ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2141 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:08 pm

LowerAlabamaTider wrote:Mobile has now gone into official hurricane mode.


They sure better get things done and do it expeditiously to boot!!!
Last edited by northjaxpro on Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:10 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2142 Postby us89 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:08 pm

This is shaping up to be the biggest tropical impact we've seen in Atlanta since Irma.

Sally might be undergoing extratropical transition by the time it gets up here, but even then we have a 13% chance of TS force winds.

But even if those turn out to be stronger, the big thing with this will be rain. Current forecast calls for the potential of 6 inches of rain here, with even more in the northern suburbs:

Image

Accordingly there is a moderate risk of flash flooding extending well up through northeast Georgia.

Image
Last edited by us89 on Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2143 Postby cfisher » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:08 pm

Image
New eye forming northwest of old eye?
Last edited by cfisher on Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2144 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:08 pm

Jag95 wrote:
Jag95 wrote:
xironman wrote:Tiny eye

F. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 4 nautical miles


I didn't think 4 miles was even possible.


Well, Wilma's was 2.3 (record) and Opal's 10, but 4 miles is really tiny.

It won’t last long if that’s really correct, radar already shows the eye at about 13 miles wide.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2145 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:11 pm

I deleted the weather channel posts. Stay on topic please, there's no need to rehash that every single storm.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2146 Postby xironman » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:12 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
LowerAlabamaTider wrote:Mobile has now gone into official hurricane mode.


They sure better get things done and do it expeditiously to boot!!!


The shape of the bay just looks like it is asking for surge.
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ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2147 Postby Sanibel » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:14 pm

Loop Current does its magic again...

You knew it was doing something when it displayed the circular outflow feathering in the upper...

Looks like a TD that transited Florida made good...

Look at the classic cornucopia shape...
Last edited by Sanibel on Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2148 Postby LowerAlabamaTider » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:15 pm

xironman wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
LowerAlabamaTider wrote:Mobile has now gone into official hurricane mode.


They sure better get things done and do it expeditiously to boot!!!


The shape of the bay just looks like it is asking for surge.


It's like as vacuum. Dauphin Island, at the mouth of the bay, is already starting to get hammered.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2149 Postby Stormgodess » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:18 pm

xironman wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
LowerAlabamaTider wrote:Mobile has now gone into official hurricane mode.


They sure better get things done and do it expeditiously to boot!!!


The shape of the bay just looks like it is asking for surge.



The surge gets trapped in there too, and with this storm moving so slow, it will be there for a long time
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2150 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:20 pm

Mobile NWS is now forecasting storm surge of 6 to 9 feet potential for Mobile Bay at time of aporoach to landfall.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2151 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:21 pm

Looks like an outer eyewall is starting to form.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2152 Postby drezee » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:21 pm

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1305609849082982402


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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2153 Postby Shell Mound » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:23 pm

 https://twitter.com/MasielloCameron/status/1305370349526110208



 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1305537601751977985



 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1305585036134100993



 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1305610276520239104



 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1305616361947889664


Last edited by Shell Mound on Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2154 Postby AlabamaDave » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:23 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Mobile NWS is now forecasting storm surge of 6 to 9 feet potential for Mobile Bay at time of aporoach tol landfall.


Anyone remember how much surge Mobile Bay experienced during Katrina? That day was so chaotic, I feel like I remember downtown Mobile being flooded, but I never know what really happened and what was rumor.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2155 Postby shiny-pebble » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:24 pm

Looks like a pretty big outer eyewall. Will probably level off for a little bit

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2156 Postby edu2703 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:25 pm

AlabamaDave wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:Mobile NWS is now forecasting storm surge of 6 to 9 feet potential for Mobile Bay at time of aporoach tol landfall.


Anyone remember how much surge Mobile Bay experienced during Katrina?


12 feet

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2157 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:26 pm

:spam:
AlabamaDave wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:Mobile NWS is now forecasting storm surge of 6 to 9 feet potential for Mobile Bay at time of aporoach tol landfall.


Anyone remember how much surge Mobile Bay experienced during Katrina? That day was so chaotic, I feel like I remember downtown Mobile being flooded, but I never know what really happened and what was rumor.


Looking back in archives I have, Mobile Bay had a surge of just under 11.5 feet.during Katrina.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2158 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:27 pm

Pressure will need to drop further for the winds to continue to increase.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2159 Postby PTPatrick » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:28 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Mobile NWS is now forecasting storm surge of 6 to 9 feet potential for Mobile Bay at time of aporoach to landfall.


With length of onshore flow and landfall location near state Line, almost a given it would be over 10 in Mobile bay...but they have been slow to up these numbers through the day. It could be lower though if the eye goes over dauphin island as Fort Morgan East would take the surge brunt. For reference Katrina produced 12+ in mobile bay hitting Waveland, and Georges produced 9 there hitting Biloxi.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2160 Postby Jag95 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:33 pm

AlabamaDave wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:Mobile NWS is now forecasting storm surge of 6 to 9 feet potential for Mobile Bay at time of aporoach tol landfall.


Anyone remember how much surge Mobile Bay experienced during Katrina? That day was so chaotic, I feel like I remember downtown Mobile being flooded, but I never know what really happened and what was rumor.


I remember it. I believe Kat's surge was higher than even Frederic's even though she was 100 miles to the west. I was working downtown at the time and the water came all the way up to Beauregard and Water.
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