ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Keldeo1997 · #2201 Postby **Keldeo1997** » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:38 pm

Pinhole intensifying

#2202 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:39 pm

#2203 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:40 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
tolakram wrote:
GCANE wrote:
In what terms? Cloud top temperature?

Just about everything. IR degraded, visible degraded, but pressure seems to be holding near 987mb for now.

https://imgur.com/VeaqrnF

https://imgur.com/SZVltUV

https://imgur.com/R9HZbA2

it seems like this is due to ongoing structural changes that some of the hurricane models have showed. at least some strengthening should resume later tonight.

Towers don't constantly fire. They wash themselves out. Especially if there is shear, as I mentioned before.
There is not much of a warm core as I can tell from sounder analysis.
The cold pool however is very deep.
If there was a much warmer core, then I think there would be more sustained eyewall convection.
However, this appears not the case.
This is more pulsing type of convection due in large part to the shear.

Aric Dunn · #2204 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:44 pm

This has been a classic pulse down phase.. its has to happen to some extent in every deepening hurricane.

#2205 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:46 pm

[youtube]https://youtu.be/5daY0lh8XRw[/youtube]

eastcoastFL · #2206 Postby **eastcoastFL** » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:46 pm

Wolf Blitzer just said Sally could be a cat 3 at landfall. Did I miss something? I didn’t see that in the NHC advisory and don’t see an M on the map

bella_may · #2207 Postby **bella_may** » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:47 pm

https://twitter.com/margaretorr/status/ ... 60992?s=21 Sorry I don’t know how to post pictures but look at that rainfall total from the GFS for southeast ms and SW Alabama :eek:

Keldeo1997 · #2208 Postby **Keldeo1997** » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:49 pm

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1305636120802349058

Hypercane_Kyle · #2209 Postby **Hypercane_Kyle** » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:50 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:Wolf Blitzer just said Sally could be a cat 3 at landfall. Did I miss something? I didn’t see that in the NHC advisory and don’t see an M on the map

Predicted to be 110 MPH, so 115 MPH is very possible.

#2210 Postby **ronyan** » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:50 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:Wolf Blitzer just said Sally could be a cat 3 at landfall. Did I miss something? I didn’t see that in the NHC advisory and don’t see an M on the map

This seems pretty simple, "could be" doesn't mean is forecast to be.

Nimbus · #2211 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:50 pm

If it keeps the small eye that leaves open the possibility of an EWRC near landfall.
The slow motion and flooding problems aren't going away without a lot more dry air.

#2212 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:50 pm

2 hrs and hardly budged

#2213 Postby **Steve** » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:52 pm

Lots of high storms are firing off near the core. Some of the cape juice is seen with rising cloud tops in the feeder bands. Good call on that from earlier G.

#2214 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:54 pm

Eye drop
74% RH - increasing, could be an indication of upcoming EWRC.
Watch next drop if trend continues.

Eye 6nm wide, open on the south

#2215 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:55 pm

Steve wrote:Lots of high storms are firing off near the core. Some of the cape juice is seen with rising cloud tops in the feeder bands. Good call on that from earlier G.

Thanks Steve

Nuno · #2216 Postby **Nuno** » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:57 pm

If it continues to move this slowly, could upwelling potentially come into play?

Sanibel · #2217 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:58 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:This has been a classic pulse down phase.. its has to happen to some extent in every deepening hurricane.

Or systems whose strengthening gulps in dry air...

#2218 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:59 pm

Already getting some helicity onshore.
Continued strengthening may start to spawn some tornadoes.
Stay tuned if you are in this area.

Nimbus · #2219 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:59 pm

GCANE wrote:2 hrs and hardly budged

https://i.imgur.com/6g0C7p4.png

Its trying to decide what size eye it needs to exhaust the inflow, reminds me of an old girlfriend shopping for a dress.
Nothing fits!

supercane4867 · #2220 Postby **supercane4867** » Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:02 pm

18z HWRF continues to be very aggressive with Sally. Down to 958mb at 24hr near the coast and with a larger eye emerging.

ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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