ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Pretty much stationary. HH just went through again and Sally has moved maybe a wopping two miles in the past hour and a half.

Yikes. At that pace even if she does do an EWRC soon she would still have time to intensify again when it's complete

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Explosive development of convection in the SW eyewall as Sally attempts to become more symmetrical. Expect the 6 nm eye to disappear and a larger eye to become evident throughout the night with a more circular windfield.

[FLpanhandle91]

Although not the traditional way, it appears that Sally is currently replacing the existing pinhole eye wall. It looks like has finally disappated on radar as the hot towers to the northeast and southwest begin to consolidate into a much larger eye.

[Nuno]

:froze:

Recon indicates winds may be 70 kts, possibly 75 kts, though recon found only 73 kts with 61 kt FL wind. Don't see any evidence of 85 kts. Eye 6nm across - watch for ERC tonight with weakening during the process. Upwelling of cooler water along with increasing wind shear could cause weakening at landfall. Note that consensus model is now into Alabama coast in western Mobile Bay.

Wow. I don’t think I’ve ever seen Wxman so Bearish on a storm before. I hope he’s right!!!!

I know that he predicts 75 to 85mph at landfall. I hope he’s right about that as well...

To be fair I think he predicted a tropical storm tops, at landfall.

[FLpanhandle91]

To hit the next forecast point for NHC (0100 CDT), Sally would have to start moving northwest at almost 10mph starting now. That ain't happening.

[DestinHurricane]

To hit the next forecast point for NHC (0100 CDT), Sally would have to start moving northwest at almost 10mph starting now. That ain't happening.

Yeah it won't even be close to that. Sally is barely moving. Bad news for us panhandle folks.

[GCANE]

Looks like a lot of helicity with it.
Smack dab on the money.

[HurryKane]

2 hrs and hardly budged

https://i.imgur.com/6g0C7p4.png

Its trying to decide what size eye it needs to exhaust the inflow, reminds me of an old girlfriend shopping for a dress.
Nothing fits!

Hey now, it's hard for a girl to look good in 2020.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

:froze:

Recon indicates winds may be 70 kts, possibly 75 kts, though recon found only 73 kts with 61 kt FL wind. Don't see any evidence of 85 kts. Eye 6nm across - watch for ERC tonight with weakening during the process. Upwelling of cooler water along with increasing wind shear could cause weakening at landfall. Note that consensus model is now into Alabama coast in western Mobile Bay.

Wow. I don’t think I’ve ever seen Wxman so Bearish on a storm before. I hope he’s right!!!!

I know that he predicts 75 to 85mph at landfall. I hope he’s right about that as well...

To be fair I think he predicted a tropical storm tops, at landfall.

I don't think anyone expected this to be more than a weak tropical storm when it was an invest.

[eastcoastFL]

Wolf Blitzer just said Sally could be a cat 3 at landfall. Did I miss something? I didn’t see that in the NHC advisory and don’t see an M on the map

This seems pretty simple, "could be" doesn't mean is forecast to be.

I took could be as “forecasted to be”. I just wasn’t sure if I missed an update calling for a major.

[cfisher]

Eye clearing out on radar.

[ElectricStorm]

Wolf Blitzer just said Sally could be a cat 3 at landfall. Did I miss something? I didn’t see that in the NHC advisory and don’t see an M on the map

This seems pretty simple, "could be" doesn't mean is forecast to be.

I took could be as “forecasted to be”. I just wasn’t sure if I missed an update calling for a major.

NHC is calling for 110 mph at landfall so it most definitely could get to 115

[eastcoastFL]

:froze:

Wow. I don’t think I’ve ever seen Wxman so Bearish on a storm before. I hope he’s right!!!!

I know that he predicts 75 to 85mph at landfall. I hope he’s right about that as well...

To be fair I think he predicted a tropical storm tops, at landfall.

I don't think anyone expected this to be more than a weak tropical storm when it was an invest.

Pretty much everything this season has been predicted to be weak on the first advisory only to be bumped up in subsequent advisories. Intensity is still one of the great mysteries in forecasting. It’s easy to say there will be favorable conditions but almost Impossible to know what each storm will do in those conditions. The GOM tends to be even more unpredictable especially if there’s limited shear and the system gets plenty of time over open water.

[GCANE]

Eye drop
989mb
Moved west a few miles
Slight increase in humidity to 76%.
Last drop was 74%.
Could be a factor of the tower as well.

[GCANE]

Eye 8nm wide, open on the south

[LowerAlabamaTider]

To hit the next forecast point for NHC (0100 CDT), Sally would have to start moving northwest at almost 10mph starting now. That ain't happening.

Yeah it won't even be close to that. Sally is barely moving. Bad news for us panhandle folks.

The longer she stalls, and moves, and stalls is bad for all of us from Gulfport to the PH. Bad for nerves, and more chances for Ms. Sally to get her act together a little more. I wouldn't bet a nickel on where in that stretch of coast she finally decides to visit.

[bayoubebe]

To hit the next forecast point for NHC (0100 CDT), Sally would have to start moving northwest at almost 10mph starting now. That ain't happening.

Yeah it won't even be close to that. Sally is barely moving. Bad news for us panhandle folks.

When it barely moves, does that have any effect on the direction it will take once it starts to move again?

[DestinHurricane]

To hit the next forecast point for NHC (0100 CDT), Sally would have to start moving northwest at almost 10mph starting now. That ain't happening.

Yeah it won't even be close to that. Sally is barely moving. Bad news for us panhandle folks.

When it barely moves, does that have any effect on the direction it will take once it starts to move again?

It will mean the turn starts farther east. Slower will mean more east landfall location.

[Stormgodess]

Sorry but Im getting a little frustrated screaming at the TV again...

WHHHYYYYY??? Are local weather guys all along the Gulf Coast telling everyone that this storm that went from a Tropical storm to a Cat 2 in 5 hours... Is going to sit out in the warm gulf for almost 30 hrs more, and still be a Cat 2?

Can someone explain what I am missing?

[eastcoastFL]

Sally sure has grown in size over the past 24 hours. The cloud cover from her outflow is reach far up into northern Georgia and South Carolina