ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Sorry but Im getting a little frustrated screaming at the TV again...

WHHHYYYYY??? Are local weather guys all along the Gulf Coast telling everyone that this storm that went from a Tropical storm to a Cat 2 in 5 hours... Is going to sit out in the warm gulf for almost 30 hrs more, and still be a Cat 2?

Can someone explain what I am missing?

It's currently still trying to get its eye situation sorted out. Until it does that it won't be getting much stronger. But it could still get to 3 before landfall since it's moving so slow

[eastcoastFL]

Sorry but Im getting a little frustrated screaming at the TV again...

WHHHYYYYY??? Are local weather guys all along the Gulf Coast telling everyone that this storm that went from a Tropical storm to a Cat 2 in 5 hours... Is going to sit out in the warm gulf for almost 30 hrs more, and still be a Cat 2?

Can someone explain what I am missing?

Probably because the NHC has forecast a max intensity at CAT 2 Winds and I think it has another 18-24 hours left over water but structurally it still has some work to do.

[eastcoastFL]

7:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 14
Location: 28.8°N 87.5°W
Moving: WNW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph



That 5mph speed is a killer. Since it’s going so slow does that mean it’s Making it’s turn around the ridge and should be picking up some speed? It’s not blocked, right?

[FLpanhandle91]

That little gulp of dry air impeded a few of those hot towers from pushing themselves upshear to consolidate the core of the storm. However, it does appear on IR that the dry is working its way out of the storm and I, personally, expect some strengthening within the next 6-12 hours as she gets her act together.

[cheezyWXguy]

I haven’t looked at recon lately, but just going off of radar, if this thing is still a hurricane, it is barely one. Velocities have come down, and the inner core doesn’t look great. It’s obviously just going through some organizational changes though, but that may be making it vulnerable to shear. I suspect overnight trends will make or break Sally’s chances at another strengthening phase, but I am still leaning towards “make”.

[FLpanhandle91]

Is recon having difficulties with SFMR right now?

[eastcoastFL]

Sorry but Im getting a little frustrated screaming at the TV again...

WHHHYYYYY??? Are local weather guys all along the Gulf Coast telling everyone that this storm that went from a Tropical storm to a Cat 2 in 5 hours... Is going to sit out in the warm gulf for almost 30 hrs more, and still be a Cat 2?

Can someone explain what I am missing?

I guess I was wrong. She may well still have 30 hours over water. Damn this is going to be a ton of rain for some places. Pensacola is going to start getting rain real soon and they’ll be in it through Wednesday

[eastcoastFL]

I haven’t looked at recon lately, but just going off of radar, if this thing is still a hurricane, it is barely one. Velocities have come down, and the inner core doesn’t look great. It’s obviously just going through some organizational changes though, but that may be making it vulnerable to shear. I suspect overnight trends will make or break Sally’s chances at another strengthening phase, but I am still leaning towards “make”.

Center isn’t looking as good on radar as it has but I doubt that lasts too long once she mixes out the dry air

[tropicwatch]

Steady rain started in Panama City about an hour ago. Wet couple of days coming up.

[FLpanhandle91]

Eyewall coming together again on radar.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

The sky here in Mobile right now is beautiful. That strange glow I can always remember before a storm. Frederic looked the exact same way.

[shiny-pebble]

New eyewall looks bigger than the old one. We'll see how it progresses

[Blown Away]

Sally on the IR doesn’t have the look of a 100 mph hurricane...

[tiger_deF]

IR can be deceiving, remember last night when she had that large blowup but was barely 60 mph? Plus the reports of surge are already frightening considering the storm is still over a day from land

[bella_may]

The sky here in Mobile right now is beautiful. That strange glow I can always remember before a storm. Frederic looked the exact same way.

Same in Mississippi. Very cool to see

[cfisher]

Just needs to wrap one band upshear and its at RI again.

[ConvergenceZone]

Sorry but Im getting a little frustrated screaming at the TV again...

WHHHYYYYY??? Are local weather guys all along the Gulf Coast telling everyone that this storm that went from a Tropical storm to a Cat 2 in 5 hours... Is going to sit out in the warm gulf for almost 30 hrs more, and still be a Cat 2?

Can someone explain what I am missing?

Professional Meteorologist Wxman explained it earlier. Increasing shear and upwelling...

[GCANE]

This is looking frickin ominous.
TPW just took a quantum leap increase all over the place.
A good portion along the coast, west GoM, and it appears to be pulling up from the EPAC thru the IoT.
ML WV is also streaming into her.

[Blow_Hard]

Steady rain started in Panama City about an hour ago. Wet couple of days coming up.

If it holds together, that's a pretty healthy band making it's way in to Bay County...

[davidiowx]

Sorry but Im getting a little frustrated screaming at the TV again...

WHHHYYYYY??? Are local weather guys all along the Gulf Coast telling everyone that this storm that went from a Tropical storm to a Cat 2 in 5 hours... Is going to sit out in the warm gulf for almost 30 hrs more, and still be a Cat 2?

Can someone explain what I am missing?

Upwelling happens in these parts of the GoM when a storm hangs around a while. Sally is also very lopsided. Can it strengthen a few mph to get to Cat 3? Sure. But it’s not going to RI tonight. Hopefully it doesn’t tomorrow either.