ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Bunch of extrap measurements 985mb.
Bigger eye.

[JayTX]

If you live in the path of Sally and will get the bulk of this rain and surge and live within 50 miles of the coast be prepared if you are not living on the high parts of your area. I know it seems strange but Harvey in SETX flooded from Western Lousiana to Houston from 10 miles north of IH-10 to the coast with no storm surge. Along with places near major creeks as far as 65 miles inland flooding many people. Do not under estimate the rainfall with this.
For Harvey no one mentioned anything about 40" to 60" of rain. Take what they are forecasting with a grain of salt and some areas could get hit very badly with this storm stalling. Not trying to cause panic but it seems theres not enough emphasis put on the amount of rain and the consequences of that when these storms stall.

[wx98]

Recon still cannot find any wind remotely close to 100 mph. Barely finding 75 mph. Maybe they are missing the stronger winds, or maybe it just isn't a 100 mph storm now.

I’ve been thinking that for over an hour. The eye has expanded and pressures have stayed nearly the same so naturally the winds will come down.

[eastcoastFL]

This oil platform offshore is reporting a 74kt gust right now


Oil Platform
29.229 N 87.781 W (29°13'44" N 87°46'52" W)

Anemometer height: 160 m above site elevation




https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=KVOA

[MississippiWx]

Interestingly enough, Sally’s center is on the southern edge of convection. Seems like southerly shear has started impacting the system. Will probably have to wait for yet another burst of intense convection to fight off the shear long enough to allow further strengthening.

[Ivanhater]

Eyewall is looking better by the minute.
That tower on the CoC did the trick.

It's possible that decreasing squalls north of the eye are allowing deeper penetration (less attenunation) of the radar beam, revealing a southern eyewall. Curious that the plane isn't finding very strong wind. I think chances are increasing of a landfall east of Mobile Bay.

[wxman57]

This oil platform offshore is reporting a 74kt gust right now


Oil Platform
29.229 N 87.781 W (29°13'44" N 87°46'52" W)

Anemometer height: 160 m above site elevation



https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=KVOA

I've worked on an offshore platform. Have to wonder about anemometer calibration. Rig workers never bothered to check it. Perhaps NWS goes out and calibrates?

[eastcoastFL]

This oil platform offshore is reporting a 74kt gust right now


Oil Platform
29.229 N 87.781 W (29°13'44" N 87°46'52" W)

Anemometer height: 160 m above site elevation



https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=KVOA

I've worked on an offshore platform. Have to wonder about anemometer calibration. Rig workers never bothered to check it. Perhaps NWS goes out and calibrates?

Good question. They recorded 86 knot gusts and 79kts sustained about 2 hours prior

And before that 102kts. That’s a heck of a lot stronger than recon has ever found

09 14 3:20 pm E 86.1 102.0

[cfisher]

[BensonTCwatcher]

Recon still cannot find any wind remotely close to 100 mph. Barely finding 75 mph. Maybe they are missing the stronger winds, or maybe it just isn't a 100 mph storm now.

I think this may be true. It’s strenghtening but I don’t think it’s quite there yet. Probably not for a few more hours to consistently be 100mph in the wind field Lots of bursting heavy convection ups and downs

[FrontRunner]

:froze:

Recon indicates winds may be 70 kts, possibly 75 kts, though recon found only 73 kts with 61 kt FL wind. Don't see any evidence of 85 kts. Eye 6nm across - watch for ERC tonight with weakening during the process. Upwelling of cooler water along with increasing wind shear could cause weakening at landfall. Note that consensus model is now into Alabama coast in western Mobile Bay.

Wow. I don’t think I’ve ever seen Wxman so Bearish on a storm before. I hope he’s right!!!!

I know that he predicts 75 to 85mph at landfall. I hope he’s right about that as well...

To be fair I think he predicted a tropical storm tops, at landfall.

The prediction was actually for a wave or TD at landfall. The NHC's first forecast called for a 60 kt TS at landfall. Pretty much everyone's been playing catch-up, just to different degrees.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

This is from the NHC advisory last night at 7pm. As far as speed and direction she is doing pretty much what they were saying 24 hours ago.

"Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A slower west-
northwestward motion is expected Monday and Monday night, followed
by a further decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest
Monday night and Tuesday."

[bella_may]

Might be strengthening again.. 985 MB found

[GCANE]

Eyewall is looking better by the minute.
That tower on the CoC did the trick.

It's possible that decreasing squalls north of the eye are allowing deeper penetration (less attenunation) of the radar beam, revealing a southern eyewall. Curious that the plane isn't finding very strong wind. I think chances are increasing of a landfall east of Mobile Bay.

Good point, but there appears to be a ton of yellow between the radar and the eye. Even starting to get some red. If anything, the squalls maybe attenuating the energy more.

[nutkin517]

If you live in the path of Sally and will get the bulk of this rain and surge and live within 50 miles of the coast be prepared if you are not living on the high parts of your area. I know it seems strange but Harvey in SETX flooded from Western Lousiana to Houston from 10 miles north of IH-10 to the coast with no storm surge. Along with places near major creeks as far as 65 miles inland flooding many people. Do not under estimate the rainfall with this.
For Harvey no one mentioned anything about 40" to 60" of rain. Take what they are forecasting with a grain of salt and some areas could get hit very badly with this storm stalling. Not trying to cause panic but it seems theres not enough emphasis put on the amount of rain and the consequences of that when these storms stall.

Don't forget drainage ditches. People in SETX that had drainage ditches near their homes, had feet inside their homes after Harvey. It was the craziest thing I had ever seen.

[Keldeo1997]

Eyewall getting better and better

[Stormgodess]

If you live in the path of Sally and will get the bulk of this rain and surge and live within 50 miles of the coast be prepared if you are not living on the high parts of your area. I know it seems strange but Harvey in SETX flooded from Western Lousiana to Houston from 10 miles north of IH-10 to the coast with no storm surge. Along with places near major creeks as far as 65 miles inland flooding many people. Do not under estimate the rainfall with this.
For Harvey no one mentioned anything about 40" to 60" of rain. Take what they are forecasting with a grain of salt and some areas could get hit very badly with this storm stalling. Not trying to cause panic but it seems theres not enough emphasis put on the amount of rain and the consequences of that when these storms stall.

Im a noob and know nothing. But from someone who experienced this with both Isaac and the 2016 Louisiana floods.... This post is SPOT ON!

[ronjon]

Sally just wobbling around on radar...no real motion last few hours. Eye becoming more distinct even at long range limit.

https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/al/little-rock/mob

[cheezyWXguy]

I think she’s finally decided on what size eye she’s going to have

[jaxfladude]

Am I the only one that thinks Sally is an early season type hurricane(sheared thin pool of warm water dry air etc?) but very slow forward movement/stall nearing landfall? or wrong here?
Looking better for the landfall impacted ares or still very much a threat of high winds and bad/dangerous surge flooding rains? <edit