ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Just a reminder not to get to caught up in how strong or weak the winds will be. We're looking at a hurricane basically stalling on the gulf coast for the next 2-3 days. Its already started raining in some areas and it won't be stopping anytime soon. Surge is already an issue in some areas and that will continue through multiple tide cycles.

I think it was Florence (could have the name wrong) a few years ago that was forecast to be a Cat 3/4 as it headed for the Carolinas. It sat and churned and the upwelling weakened it significantly but it also soaked that whole region for days on end causing massive flooding. It wasn't the wind that killed people it was the water. Typically it isn't the wind thats the killer its water. Its surge its over flowing rivers etc.

Just thought I'd remind any who may have forgot that a weak storm doesn't change threat when its slow moving and dumping tons of rain.




***By Tuesday afternoon, when the hurricane
will likely be just offshore, the models show the steering currents
collapsing and Sally is likely to drift northward before finally
turning northeastward ahead of a developing mid-level trough over
the central U.S. by late Wednesday. There continues to be a
significant amount of uncertainty on exactly where and when
Sally turns northward and makes landfall, with model solutions
ranging from a landfall on the Florida panhandle to a landfall in
extreme southeastern Louisiana. It should be emphasized that it is
always challenging to forecast the track of hurricanes in weak
steering currents, and in Sally's case the weak steering is
occurring very near land. The new NHC track forecast is a little
to the east of the previous one, trending toward the latest
consensus aids.

[FixySLN]

I just cannot remember when was the last time that the 48 hr forecast track by the NHC busted so bad, by so many miles. That's why they include the cone of uncertainty because it surely does can vary by that many miles, at times.
Good for some but not good for others.

https://i.imgur.com/9x3LNwn.png

Why is it busted? Isn't the NHC the highest level of guidance for hurricanes?

[Blown Away]

I just cannot remember when was the last time that the 48 hr forecast track by the NHC busted so bad, by so many miles. That's why they include the cone of uncertainty because it surely does can vary by that many miles, at times.
Good for some but not good for others.

https://i.imgur.com/9x3LNwn.png

When your in that 2-3 day cone, the media hypes it all up, and then just like that 24 hours later it may be a non event there is relief, but some level of frustration that so much effort went into a non event.

[Stormcenter]

If anyone cares, Sally looks to be drifting west again
but it could just be a radar mirage since it’s been
stationary for it seems like days now.

[tropicwatch]

Looking like another convection expansion phase occurring.

[eastcoastFL]

I just cannot remember when was the last time that the 48 hr forecast track by the NHC busted so bad, by so many miles. That's why they include the cone of uncertainty because it surely does can vary by that many miles, at times.
Good for some but not good for others.

https://i.imgur.com/9x3LNwn.png

Chalk up another loss for the models. Its been a long list this season. I saw someone saying yesterday that the track was locked in the models dont usually get it wrong 3 days out. But nothing is ever a lock with weather. The models didn't even have a clue that this storm was going to form.

As for the good for some bad for others I feel bad for whoever gets this but it will be nice for Louisiana not to get another storm so soon. Especially how awful flooding maybe in New Orleans if it ends up there. But still tonight nobody is in the clear yet.

[Stormcenter]

Good post.

I just cannot remember when was the last time that the 48 hr forecast track by the NHC busted so bad, by so many miles. That's why they include the cone of uncertainty because it surely does can vary by that many miles, at times.
Good for some but not good for others.

https://i.imgur.com/9x3LNwn.png

Chalk up another loss for the models. Its been a long list this season. I saw someone saying yesterday that the track was locked in the models dont usually get it wrong 3 days out. But nothing is ever a lock with weather. The models didn't even have a clue that this storm was going to form.

As for the good for some bad for others I feel bad for whoever gets this but it will be nice for Louisiana not to get another storm so soon. Especially how awful flooding maybe in New Orleans if it ends up there. But still tonight nobody is in the clear yet.

[edu2703]

Eyewall has eroded (again) and both sattelite and radar presentations are degrading every frame.

I think we're going to wake up with a struggling storm storm rather than a stronger storm, unless something really significant happens overnight. Something thats it's not impossible, but unlikely to happen in my opinion.

[Sailingtime]

Yep, knew that as coming, at least the upwelling part! Let's keep it stalled or moving slow, and keep churning up those cool waters and who knows,maybe tomorrow we can wake up to a significantly weakened hurricane.... The slower it moves over the same area, the more of a chance of that happening.....

Not to mention wind shear is already increasing again. Doubt this becomes a major.

I agree, the conditions just aren't there for a major. Sure the waters are warm(except for upwelling), but you need much more than just warm waters to get a major.....

I looked at a wind chart about 6 hours ago and you could see a clear line about 30 miles to the West of the center of Sally where the winds instead of being from the North or Northeast, were actually coming from the west and at a very slow speed. Not the symmetrical wind field you would expect with a Cat 2 approaching only a few miles away. So I don't see Sally suddenly gaining strength. I believe her winds are too spread out and are disorganized. That said, the rain and the surge will be significant. The winds not so much.

[Blown Away]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

IMO, looking ragged on the IR loop. Shear seems to be eroding the SW quad...

[MidnightRain]

I’m waiting for the next burst of convection over the center, and then the flood of “RI incoming” posts. Sorry, gotta poke some fun at the mood swings of the board. I’m going to take Sally for what it is, a maintaining marginal hurricane with an outside shot at getting stronger before landfall. The big story is going to be the almost historic slow movement, models still trending slower. 60-80mph winds over the course of many hours and obviously the surge and rain, that’s a big deal alone.

[ConvergenceZone]

Not to mention wind shear is already increasing again. Doubt this becomes a major.

I agree, the conditions just aren't there for a major. Sure the waters are warm(except for upwelling), but you need much more than just warm waters to get a major.....

I looked at a wind chart about 6 hours ago and you could see a clear line about 30 miles to the West of the center of Sally where the winds instead of being from the North or Northeast, were actually coming from the west and at a very slow speed. Not the symmetrical wind field you would expect with a Cat 2 approaching only a few miles away. So I don't see Sally suddenly gaining strength. I believe her winds are too spread out and are disorganized. That said, the rain and the surge will be significant. The winds not so much.

Yep. I have a feeling the flooding will be devastating unfortunately

[emeraldislenc]

What bothers me sometimes on this site is that people act like they are disappointed that the storm may not be as strong. After going through several storms here we need to remind ourselves of the pain and suffering people go through during a hurricane. If it weakens we should all be happy. It is not a football
Game but an event that has a profound impact upon people.

[eastcoastFL]

This buoy has had sustained TS winds pretty much all day long. Just goes to show how little she’s moved today. Currently Sally is about .6 degrees to the east of this buoy and .3 North so it’s getting pretty close

[FLpanhandle91]

Hot tower in NW quad incoming?

[eastcoastFL]

What bothers me sometimes on this site is that people act like they are disappointed that the storm may not be as strong. After going through several storms here we need to remind ourselves of the pain and suffering people go through during a hurricane. If it weakens we should all be happy. It is not a football
Game but an event that has a profound impact upon people.

That’s true. We’re all weather enthusiasts but we have to find a middle ground between admiring the strength of a storm and remembering the hell that it can bring. I know I enjoy tracking these storms and enjoy observing the pure power they have but when they’re closing in it’s not fun at all.

[eastcoastFL]

I agree, the conditions just aren't there for a major. Sure the waters are warm(except for upwelling), but you need much more than just warm waters to get a major.....

I looked at a wind chart about 6 hours ago and you could see a clear line about 30 miles to the West of the center of Sally where the winds instead of being from the North or Northeast, were actually coming from the west and at a very slow speed. Not the symmetrical wind field you would expect with a Cat 2 approaching only a few miles away. So I don't see Sally suddenly gaining strength. I believe her winds are too spread out and are disorganized. That said, the rain and the surge will be significant. The winds not so much.

Yep. I have a feeling the flooding will be devastating unfortunately

It looks like the flooding will be extensive and wide spread. I hope people in low lying areas and near rivers even inland are taking precautions

[Stormcenter]

Okay not a mirage, Sally has begun to move due west.
I don’t think that was in tonight’s script.

[stormhunter7]

Watching the gravity wave on the NW to SW side move out from earlier CDO is so impressive on 1 min imagery. Clearly drier air got sucked into center... All the way around to the north. Will take some time IMO to filter (recover) from that.

[DestinHurricane]

Okay not a mirage, Sally has begun to move due west.
I don’t think that was in tonight’s script.

I'm not seeing that. Looks pretty stationary still.