ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

Even though recon isn’t able to find much in the way of hurricane force winds, and the shear is increasing, I still think this will be a minimal hurricane when it makes landfall. I don’t think upwelling and shear will weaken it too quickly. Although it’s still possible it does, and it landfalls as a strong tropical storm. We shall see

[LowerAlabamaTider]

I live in south western Mobile County. Coordinates still have entry over Dauphin Island. Does it come ashore Mobile County and cut over bay to Baldwin or miss us completely to the right and cut thru Fort Morgan?

No one here can answer that definitively. Not yet for sure. Coming over DI and coming up Mobile Bay would put both sides of Bay in basically the same situation. Further East . . Well then everything changes.

[DucaCane]

Wouldn’t a weaker system continue to drift to the west?

[DestinHurricane]

Am I the only one who thinks this is actually improving? Outflow is expanding and convection looks to be wrapping around center.

[Javlin]

I really can't see this one getting any stronger ATTM.I thought I saw a NW drift looking at local radar and it was a guess only the only way to see movement is by the bands reaching out saw the boot of LA get touched and Mobile Bay instead 2 clicks W a weaker system?

[Dean4Storms]

Just got hit by a good squall....winds 30 to 40mph.

[Chemmers]

I think it looking better then it did a couple off hours ago, and the pressure is still falling

[Dean4Storms]

Am I the only one who thinks this is actually improving? Outflow is expanding and convection looks to be wrapping around center.

Looks better but convection just isn't as strong as early yesterday. Might strengthen 10mph or so, but wouldn't expect much more than that.

[Frank P]

Surge at Bay St Louis is approaching 5.4 feet asl. Pascagoula is 5 feet and Dauphin Is is approaching 4 feet.

[Steve]

Right (response to Sailortime). Outside of possible tornadoes, it’s probably not going to destroy lots of buildings. but we can bank on flooding, power outages, downed trees, roof damage and your typical above gale issues that come with waves of feeder bands or cells within ones training overhead.

I’m feeling pretty lucky. While I wouldn’t have minded a little action, we got missed by a Cat 4 by 200 miles to the west and a 1/2 by 120-150 to the east.it feels great outside - 82, windy, humid. There’s finally a mid level cloud deck, with low clouds moving in from the E / ENE. Battle zone of air masses might mean the city stays west of any bands, but we could get some later from the N or NNE as the eye comes up if they can last. Hope everyone in the path is safe and has a great storm day or 2 with minimal impacts.

[Javlin]

Am I the only one who thinks this is actually improving? Outflow is expanding and convection looks to be wrapping around center.

It does look better than last night just myself it's in a maintaining mode I do not see strengthening,

[ronjon]

Surge at Bay St Louis is approaching 5.4 feet asl. Pascagoula is 5 feet and Dauphin Is is approaching 4 feet.

Frank what's the surge like at your place or would Pascagoula represent it?

[Javlin]

Surge at Bay St Louis is approaching 5.4 feet asl. Pascagoula is 5 feet and Dauphin Is is approaching 4 feet.

Just got done driving the beach Frank water breached the seawall about a mile W of White Ave. the further I drove E the more the wind seemed to p/u did not try the O.S. Bridge.

[ColdFusion]

Surge at Bay St Louis is approaching 5.4 feet asl. Pascagoula is 5 feet and Dauphin Is is approaching 4 feet.

Silver Slipper Cam near Bay St Louis doesn't look to bad. S Beach Blvd covered in water, but vehicles still able to pass.

https://silverslipper-ms.com/visiting/weather-cam/

[LowerAlabamaTider]

I just stepped outside for a minute, and there were a couple of gusts in the tops of my oaks that you don't see on a regular basis.

[Steve]

Surge at Bay St Louis is approaching 5.4 feet asl. Pascagoula is 5 feet and Dauphin Is is approaching 4 feet.

Frank what's the surge like at your place or would Pascagoula represent it?

He is in Biloxi. Pascagoula is about 30 miles east. Because of how each is positioned on opposite sides of a bay, they can have appreciable differences.

[Frank P]

Surge at Bay St Louis is approaching 5.4 feet asl. Pascagoula is 5 feet and Dauphin Is is approaching 4 feet.

Frank what's the surge like at your place or would Pascagoula represent it?

Ron, My surge this morning is a little over 5 feet, actually it’s 3 feet of surge with 2 feet of high tide added in...
I’m usually a tad lower than BSL.. the top of seawall if front of my house is about 10 feet, but Biloxi is reporting the lower areas of HWY 90 with surge on it now...

[ColdFusion]

Surge at Bay St Louis is approaching 5.4 feet asl. Pascagoula is 5 feet and Dauphin Is is approaching 4 feet.

Frank what's the surge like at your place or would Pascagoula represent it?

Ron, My surge this morning is a little over 5 feet, actually it’s 3 feet of surge with 2 feet of high tide added in...
I’m usually a tad lower than BSL.. the top of seawall if front of my house is about 10 feet, but Biloxi is reporting the lower areas of HWY with surge on it now...

Looks pretty calm and dry at the lighthouse in Biloxi for now....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jlkpF6-BbA&feature=emb_logo&ab_channel=CityofBiloxi

[LarryWx]

I should have gone with 100 mph max strength when offshore instead of 85. Otherwise, it being back down to a cat 1 H isn’t surprising with it being a very slow mover when looking back at history. The extremely heavy rainfall well inland is still looking to be the biggest overall impact imo. The storm’s own wake along in some cases with somewhat drier air from nearby land normally starts to work against a H getting stronger when moving very slowly just offshore. However, the very long duration of surge along with very long periods of solid TS force to cat 1 H winds along and near the coast are/will also still be a big story. We’ll have to wait til landfall to know the final result on strength obviously as nothing is set in stone. But TS force winds for a very long period can easily have more impact than stronger winds from a faster moving storm. In addition, storm surge can be higher from a somewhat weaker but very slow mover vs a stronger faster mover because of the many hours of water being pushed ashore.

In summary, the peak strength at landfall does not tell the whole story. The significance of very long duration often trumps the significance of landfall strength.

[Frank P]

Surge at Bay St Louis is approaching 5.4 feet asl. Pascagoula is 5 feet and Dauphin Is is approaching 4 feet.

Frank what's the surge like at your place or would Pascagoula represent it?

He is in Biloxi. Pascagoula is about 30 miles east. Because of how each is positioned on opposite sides of a bay, they can have appreciable differences.

But that varies from storm to storm as size, wind speed, wind directions and angle of approach all factor in, with the off shore winds I would expect them to be similar, but BSL has the greatest surge multiplier and will always be more than Biloxi or Goula, all things being equal..sure wish I could find the old storm surge multiplier but have searched all over the internet and still can’t find it... we are getting some pretty good northerly gusts right maybe in the 30s mph range but other wise it’s a nice day to be on the beach