How many majors do you think we’ll end up with this season?

[TheStormExpert]

So far the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season has been historic at breaking 2005’s earliest named storm formation records, it has also seen quite a high amount of U.S. land falling TC’s including potentially four hurricanes making a U.S. landfall. But the one thing that sticks out like a sore thumb is the lack of major hurricanes, especially considering we’ve already seen 20 named storms, with only one of them being a major so far. Now I know Teddy is forecasted to become a potent Cat.3 out in the open Atlantic in the next 3-5 days so that’ll likely make two, but how many more majors do you guys think this season will see?

I’m going with 3-4 total assuming everything goes as forecasted with Teddy and we see at least one in October, maybe another one in November before the season ends. But if I had to pick a specific number I’d pick four.

Moderators would you mind making a poll? Thanks!

[northjaxpro]

I can see at least two more major hurricanes to develop before the end of the season.I think we will end up.with a total of 4 overall.

[aspen]

There’s still a chance Paulette could become a major if the eye opens up a bit, and Teddy seems destined to be a Cat 3/4. West-shifting development as we get into October will likely lead to home-grown majors. I think 2020 can still hit 5-6; remember, 2016 had 3 of its 4 majors from late September onwards, and 2018 didn’t have another major until October.

[EquusStorm]

Unless Paulette decides to stop being slop and clear out before starting to transition, we'll be at just two with Teddy - two majors in the first 20 storms is a bizarre ratio. We got a few more waves coming and surely we'll get another in October; would go with three but 4-5 isn't out of the realm of possibility. NOAA's forecast with the high end of NS and the low end of H/MH looks to be pretty on track.

[Hurricaneman]

I’d say 4 as I believe Teddy will be one and 2 in October from a western Caribbean monsoon gyre

[ElectricStorm]

4-5 seems like a good bet at this time

[St0rmTh0r]

I'm thinking October features several majors so 4 or 5 is likely. Anything that gets in the Caribbean is gonna blow

[MarioProtVI]

I’d say anywhere from 0-1 more after Teddy, and also because Paulette ran out of time to become one. Models show not a whole lot after this activity (those GEFS ensembles and the GFS-para should be taken with a grain of salt and not a guarante) and keep 98L fairly weak because of its presence to Teddy’s outflow (depicted by the GFS), and October is a wildcard and for all we know could be very quiet despite favorable conditions - last year we said the same thing and nothing happened and all we got was a parade of weak storms and one small hurricane way up north. Extreme activity and intensity before October does not guarantee an active October.

[CyclonicFury]

4 seems very possible. There's still lots of hurricane season left. Teddy seems very likely to become one. I think Paulette has likely run out of time and it seems highly unlikely Sally will make it. Most hyperactive La Niña seasons have a major hurricane in October, with some exceptions like 2010 (which had 5 hurricanes despite none of them exceeding Category 2 status). There's also an outside chance of one in November in a season like this.

[tolakram]

poll created

[Chris90]

In the seasonal prediction in the spring I went with 6. I’m not anticipating that happening, but I went with 5 for this poll, so I’m knocking one off my preseason prediction, and I’m feeling a little unsure we even hit that. I do fully expect Teddy to become a major, and I think 98 might have a chance in the future too. If that happens, maybe we could squeeze out 2 in October to reach the 5 I voted for in the poll.

This season has been weird. We keep striking down earliest storm records from 2005, but this season has definitely struggled to live up to intensity expectations. The storms that year just kept getting more intense. Dennis 930mb, Emily 929mb, Katrina 902mb, Rita 895mb, Wilma 882mb.

Laura was really impressive, and the impacts this year have been horrible and constant so it’s not like anyone needs another major thrown into the mix, but I really thought we would have been up to about 3 majors already by the middle of September.

[Hammy]

Voted three, but I'll say 3-4. Sally didn't make it (thankfully) and Paulette is already weakening so September won't end the month with more than one, given all indicators are that the latter half of the month will be quieter.

I think we'll get at least one in October, but we could see two depending on how active the western Caribbean is.

[storminabox]

In the seasonal prediction in the spring I went with 6. I’m not anticipating that happening, but I went with 5 for this poll, so I’m knocking one off my preseason prediction, and I’m feeling a little unsure we even hit that. I do fully expect Teddy to become a major, and I think 98 might have a chance in the future too. If that happens, maybe we could squeeze out 2 in October to reach the 5 I voted for in the poll.

This season has been weird. We keep striking down earliest storm records from 2005, but this season has definitely struggled to live up to intensity expectations. The storms that year just kept getting more intense. Dennis 930mb, Emily 929mb, Katrina 902mb, Rita 895mb, Wilma 882mb.

Laura was really impressive, and the impacts this year have been horrible and constant so it’s not like anyone needs another major thrown into the mix, but I really thought we would have been up to about 3 majors already by the middle of September.

To be fair, we very easily could've ended up seeing Paulette and even Sally become a Major Hurricane if things panned out just a little differently. Getting Major Hurricanes is very fickle and it doesn't take much to either end up with a lot in one burst or not many at all.

[ClarCari]

I put 4 as average bet, but it’s hard to predict more or less majors based on our current trends this season. Sometimes getting majors is by luck, the background state this year is extremely favorable, just some of these storms have run into a few hiccups doing it. It’s not unrealistic to say the next round of storms thru the rest of the season could be luckier at reaching major than the previous storms.

[ElectricStorm]

Went with 5. That was my preseason prediction and I'm sticking with it for now

[Ryxn]

Great job 4%!

[Ryxn]

I’d say anywhere from 0-1 more after Teddy, and also because Paulette ran out of time to become one. Models show not a whole lot after this activity (those GEFS ensembles and the GFS-para should be taken with a grain of salt and not a guarante) and keep 98L fairly weak because of its presence to Teddy’s outflow (depicted by the GFS), and October is a wildcard and for all we know could be very quiet despite favorable conditions - last year we said the same thing and nothing happened and all we got was a parade of weak storms and one small hurricane way up north. Extreme activity and intensity before October does not guarantee an active October.

4 (maybe 5) more after Teddy