Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020
...KARINA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 117.1W
ABOUT 565 MI...915 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 117.1 West. Karina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast in the next 24 hours, with
gradual weakening expected to begin on Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.
$$
Forecaster Brennan
Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020
Karina's satellite presentation is not terribly impressive, with the
deep convection sheared well south of what appears to be a somewhat
elongated low-level center by 15 to 20 kt of northerly shear. The
subjective Dvorak Final-T numbers have decreased a little in the
last 6 hours, but overall a blend of the objective and subjective
satellite estimates yields an intensity of 40 kt for this advisory.
Karina only has a limited window for strengthening, with SSTs
forecast to cool to 26C along the forecast track within 36 hours.
With the shear forecast to persist during until the waters cool and
the atmosphere dries out, the intensity guidance has trended
downward again this cycle, and so has the NHC prediction, which is
close to or a little above HCCA and higher than the simple
consensus aids. Karina should become a remnant low in about 4 days
and is expected to dissipate by day 5.
The initial motion estimate is 285/11. Karina should be steered
generally west-northwestward for the next several days, followed by
a turn toward the west in the low-level flow by 96 hours. The new
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 18.2N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 18.7N 118.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 19.4N 119.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 20.2N 121.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 21.0N 122.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 21.8N 123.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 22.3N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 22.5N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brennan
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
200 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020
...KARINA JOGS WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 118.2W
ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 118.2 West. Karina is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected by tonight, with this motion continuing for
the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast in the next 24 hours, with
gradual weakening expected to begin on Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
200 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020
Karina continues to be a sheared cyclone with the deep convection
displaced to the southwest of the exposed low-level center. Recent
scatterometer data showed winds up to 40 kt in the southern
semicircle, and thus the initial intensity remains 40 kt.
The cyclone has moved more westward during the past several hours,
possibly due to reformation of the center closer to the convection.
This motion of 280/11 is expected to be short-lived, as all of the
available track guidance indicates that Karina should turn
northwestward during the next 24 h, with a northwestward to
west-northwestward then expected through 96 h. After that, the
cyclone or its remnants are expected to turn back to the west. The
new forecast track is adjusted to the west of the previous track
based on the current position and motion, and it lies a bit to the
left of the various consensus models. The 96 h point has been
nudged a little to the north of the previous forecast based on a
northward shift of the guidance at that time.
While Karina is likely to continue to feel the effects of
northeasterly vertical shear for the next 36 h or so, the new
forecast track gives it a little more time over warmer water.
Thus, the intensity forecast keeps the door open for some
strengthening for 24 h or so. After that, the center should move
over cooler water, which should cause the cyclone to weaken to a
remnant low by 96 h and dissipate by 120 h. The new intensity
forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0900Z 17.9N 118.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 18.4N 119.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 19.3N 120.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 20.2N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 21.3N 123.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 22.0N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 22.6N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 23.0N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
800 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020
...KARINA RESUMES ITS NORTHWEST MOTION OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC
WATERS...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 118.5W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 118.5 West. Karina is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast through tonight, with gradual
weakening expected to begin on Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.
$$
Forecaster Latto
Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
800 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020
There has been little change to the appearance of Karina over the
past several hours, with a large area of deep convection remaining
displaced mostly to the southwest of the center due to moderate
northeasterly shear. Because the general appearance of the cyclone
is unchanged, the initial intensity remains 40 kt based on earlier
ASCAT data.
The shear is expected to slowly relax over the next 24 h while the
system remains over relatively warm waters, and some slight
strengthening is possible during that time. After 24 h, Karina is
forecast to cross the 26 degrees C SST isotherm and begin to enter a
drier, more stable atmospheric environment. These factors should
cause Karina to steadily weaken beginning by late Tuesday. By 72 h,
the cyclone should be over water temperatures of less than 24C, and
the system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by 96 h, if
not sooner. The low is then forecast to dissipate by day 5. The NHC
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in
good agreement with the various multi-model consensus aids.
Karina has resumed a northwestward movement, and the initial motion
is 305/7 kt. A northwestward motion is expected to continue while
the deep convection persists, as the cyclone is steered by a
mid-level ridge to its north and northeast. Once the cyclone has
weakened and lost most of its convection, it is expected to turn
toward the west under the influence of the low-level flow. The track
guidance has shifted northward at most time frames, and the latest
NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the right as well, but is
still to the south of most of the track guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 18.1N 118.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 18.8N 119.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 20.0N 120.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 21.2N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 22.3N 123.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 23.2N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 23.7N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 23.7N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Latto