ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

I’m on Innerarity Island in Perdido Bay... my dock is barely hanging on. Lots of flooding in the neighborhood already. Steady wind and rains all day.

Northern Perdido Bay here and my pier is amazingly still above water. Still seeing cars driving down old Lillian Highway so I assume there is no street flooding yet

Yeah sooo many people just acting like nothing is going on..

We are at the windemere condominiums using their elevated garage.

About 2 minutes in.. first hurricane gusts .. several of them. Looking at radar may have been several meso vorts.

https://www.facebook.com/10212035498142 ... 168696054/

Is going to be a long next 12-18 hrs waiting for this thing to come ashore.

[FLpanhandle91]

Seemed to wobble east pretty good on radar over the past hour or so. Looks just east of due south from Fort Morgan now.

[DestinHurricane]

Seemed to wobble east pretty good on radar over the past hour or so. Looks just east of due south from Fort Morgan now.

I am afraid the NNE or NE movement may have started. Euro and its ensembles may be corrrect.

[NDG]

AF recon is about to take off from Houston.

[tolakram]

Latest GFS total precip estimates

[GCANE]

All afternoon the eye humidity was 68%.
Last drop before Miss Piggy left was 59%.
Eye is drying out. A sign of strengthening.

[NDG]

For the past 7.5 hrs over all movement has been E of due N, if not NNE, at maybe 2-3 mph, it will miss Mobile Bay at this rate it it continues, like 12z Euro showed.

[DestinHurricane]

For the past 7.5 hrs over all movement has been E of due N, if not NNE, at maybe 2-3 mph, it will miss Mobile Bay at this rate it it continues, like 12z Euro showed.


http://i.imgur.com/UuvlpqXh.gif

Exactly as Euro and ensembles showed. For reference, here is 12Z Euro ensembles.

[Jr0d]

Does anyone know if any flooding has occurred yet?

I have sand bags in my backyard at the french doors and I have a foot of water standing now . I put 2 sand bags high so far I am good. On that note there is flooding all over Pensacola.
Not sure how to post pic on here.

I like immb.com for photo hosting. Imgur is not what it used to be, they are trying to be too much like a social media platform and make it difficult for a new account to upload and share pics.

I did have any pics turnout from our flooding from Sally or I would have posted them here.

It is setting up for a large area to see 10"+ of rain with some areas over 20".

Not good to hear P-cola is already having flood issues with much more rain to come.

[pcolaman]

I think this comes in Fort Morgan. Any other landfall predictions?

MS/Alabama State Line, on the Alabama side! Who knows, just a guess.

Al/ Fla line just east of there. my guess

[NDG]

For the past 7.5 hrs over all movement has been E of due N, if not NNE, at maybe 2-3 mph, it will miss Mobile Bay at this rate it it continues, like 12z Euro showed.


http://i.imgur.com/UuvlpqXh.gif

Exactly as Euro and ensembles showed. For reference, here is 12Z Euro ensembles. https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/ecens/sessions/ecens_2020-09-15-12Z_240_34.818_266.149_26.204_280.693_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png

Euro is trying to make up after being the most left biased model past 24 hrs with Sally on Saturday and Sunday.

[supercane4867]

Looks exactly like a CAT1

[bella_may]

Over 40mph gusts now and have a feeling it won’t let up soon. Just hope the power stays on

[LowerAlabamaTider]

For the past 7.5 hrs over all movement has been E of due N, if not NNE, at maybe 2-3 mph, it will miss Mobile Bay at this rate it it continues, like 12z Euro showed.


http://i.imgur.com/UuvlpqXh.gif

Exactly as Euro and ensembles showed. For reference, here is 12Z Euro ensembles. https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/ecens/sessions/ecens_2020-09-15-12Z_240_34.818_266.149_26.204_280.693_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png

If this does happen my theory is once again proved correct.

[NDG]

Crazy Petronius/Chevron oil rig started reporting wing gusts over 100 mph again, rig is now in the SE quadrant, after not reporting them for the past 24 hrs, so I guess Sally is strengthening again.

15 Sep 4:40 pm 79 79 100 SW 77G107 <.25


https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/times ... aw=0&w=325

[FLpanhandle91]

7.16 inches of rain since 0000 local this morning and 8.68 inches since the first bands moved in yesterday here in Fort Walton Beach. I live on a small residential pond and people's backyards are flooded. Another 5 or 6 inches will put water into their homes.

[NDG]

Looks exactly like a CAT1

https://i.imgur.com/OPzTopr.jpg

Many Cat 2 look like that.

[CrazyC83]

Dvorak would nail the intensity too. Classic category 1 look on satellite (and radar) - solid T4.5 but no more.

The fact the pressure is falling is probably because the storm is getting slowly larger too.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

60 Mph gusts now in Mobile

[tropicwatch]

Latest GFS total precip estimates

https://i.imgur.com/HQq1AHP.png

Might be a little conservative. My weather station has already recorded 6" here in Panama City.