ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Oh yeah, pressure has continued dropping.

URNT15 KNHC 152339
AF305 1219A SALLY HDOB 14 20200915
233030 2927N 08824W 6967 03002 9840 +121 +114 328064 065 071 000 00
233100 2928N 08822W 6970 02991 9834 +121 +119 330064 066 073 003 01
233130 2929N 08821W 6966 02980 9799 +133 +118 326064 066 073 004 00
233200 2930N 08819W 6966 02964 9769 +149 +122 328057 065 073 004 00
233230 2931N 08817W 6970 02953 9752 +156 +121 334047 053 073 003 00
233300 2932N 08816W 6948 02968 9744 +151 +124 340040 044 066 002 00
233330 2932N 08814W 6936 02980 9745 +146 +120 341033 038 049 001 00
233400 2933N 08812W 6973 02931 9738 +153 +103 342031 032 035 001 03
233430 2934N 08810W 6958 02942 9730 +151 +118 334027 029 031 001 03
233500 2934N 08808W 6974 02919 9730 +149 +120 332019 026 029 000 00
233530 2935N 08806W 6965 02930 9730 +149 +115 347014 018 027 002 03
233600 2936N 08804W 6967 02929 9731 +146 +121 351008 011 026 000 00
233630 2936N 08802W 6964 02931 9727 +151 +110 340002 006 025 000 00
233700 2937N 08800W 6971 02923 9727 +154 +107 057001 002 024 000 03
233730 2937N 08759W 6967 02929 9726 +155 +097 122003 004 022 000 00
233800 2938N 08757W 6971 02923 9724 +156 +101 127006 007 021 000 00
233830 2938N 08755W 6963 02930 9728 +150 +112 138009 010 021 000 00
233900 2939N 08753W 6967 02927 9733 +145 +121 143015 017 026 000 00
233930 2940N 08751W 6966 02929 //// +135 //// 146020 022 027 000 01
234000 2940N 08749W 6971 02925 9747 +135 +132 149024 026 037 001 00
$$

[CyclonicFury]

Unlike this morning, there is no longer any doubt that Sally is indeed a hurricane, and an intensifying one at that. Recon has found extrapolated pressures as low as 972 mb and SFMR readings of 73 kt in the SW quad, which was much weaker earlier today.

Looking more likely than not it will be a hurricane at landfall.

[NDG]

Unlike this morning, there is no longer any doubt that Sally is indeed a hurricane, and an intensifying one at that. Recon has found extrapolated pressures as low as 972 mb and SFMR readings of 73 kt in the SW quad, which was much weaker earlier today.

Looking more likely than not it will be a hurricane at landfall.

She's defying wxman57

[DestinHurricane]

Unlike this morning, there is no longer any doubt that Sally is indeed a hurricane, and an intensifying one at that. Recon has found extrapolated pressures as low as 972 mb and SFMR readings of 73 kt in the SW quad, which was much weaker earlier today.

Looking more likely than not it will be a hurricane at landfall.

I don't know if there was ever any question about being a hurricane at landfall. I think the question was how strong a hurricane.

[CrazyC83]

I'd keep it at 70 kt though, since the SFMR is more uncertain in very shallow water (such as the northern Gulf shelf water).

[NDG]

There's no way Sally is making landfall during the night tonight, it may not be until at least daybreak if not later like the Euro shows.

[CyclonicFury]

Unlike this morning, there is no longer any doubt that Sally is indeed a hurricane, and an intensifying one at that. Recon has found extrapolated pressures as low as 972 mb and SFMR readings of 73 kt in the SW quad, which was much weaker earlier today.

Looking more likely than not it will be a hurricane at landfall.

I don't know if there was ever any question about being a hurricane at landfall. I think the question was how strong a hurricane.

wxman57 said he thought Sally was a strong tropical storm this morning when recon failed to find any flight-level or SFMR winds that supported hurricane strength. Since then, Sally has deepened, and both flight-level and SFMR winds have increased significantly.

[AnnularCane]

There must be quicksand somewhere off the coast too. She seems to be mired in it.

[wx98]

Definitely stronger. Due south of Fort Morgan by 45-50 miles. Should make landfall Orange Beach to Pensacola.

[supercane4867]

Landfall intensity probably won't be too far off from NHC's prior prediction of peak intensity. 85-90kt very possible.

[aspen]

Wow, 972/973 mbar with a stronger SW quadrant and an opening eye. I can’t wait to see the NE quad!

[wx98]

There's no way Sally is making landfall during the night tonight, it may not be until at least daybreak if not later like the Euro shows.

It will have to slow down again and it is now speeding up.

[cheezyWXguy]

I'd keep it at 70 kt though, since the SFMR is more uncertain in very shallow water (such as the northern Gulf shelf water).

There might be enough to up it to 75kt depending on what the NE quad has. Radar looking like up to 90kt, though I don’t know exactly what height the beam is at

[supercane4867]

[NDG]

I'd keep it at 70 kt though, since the SFMR is more uncertain in very shallow water (such as the northern Gulf shelf water).

Recon has not gone through the NE quadrant yet where I am sure will find much higher flight level winds to support those SFMR.

[ClarCari]

I say they’ll either keep her as is or up her 5mph for now since I doubt it will be proven unjustified. Then at 10CDT they may give her a bigger boost if recon keeps finding her strengthening like this.

[Nimbus]

Looks like she is getting a little dry air in on her eastern side, and at least she is moving again.
That might help a little with the flooding.

[northjaxpro]

Sally will landfall tomorrow morning between 06Z and 12Z . It may take until around 18Z tomorrow if the forward speed stays under 5 mph or less.

Sally's pressure still dropping foen to 973 mb on a report I saw a short time ago
. ICON had Sally as low as 967 mb for landfall earlier today.

[FLpanhandle91]

Eye is desperately trying to close. I believe NHC is gonna incorporate that most recent center pass into their 7:00PM advisory, hence the delay.

[saila]

Definitely stronger. Due south of Fort Morgan by 45-50 miles. Should make landfall Orange Beach to Pensacola.

Landfall in that area would be 16 years to the day from Hurricane Ivan