ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Ground is so saturated that I would think twice about sleeping downwind of a big tree tonight.

[cheezyWXguy]

This is the most I have ever posted probably because this one is actually close. I susally just read and don't log in. I thought by following it was headed into the panhandle, its southeast of gulf shores, headed nine etc but the NHc has it at 88 west headed 350 degrees. Which is accurate? Love the site. It gets confusing though.

To be fair, it is pretty confusing deciphering what it’s doing. Generally looping, but the aggregate motion may a very, very slow crawl to the northeast. The expansion of the NE quad on satellite gives the illusion of a more decisive NE movement, but radar tells the real story right now.

[Dean4Storms]

Still a fairly substantial area around the center of lighter winds where you'd expect the strongest winds in an eyewall.

[NDG]

Still a fairly substantial area around the center of lighter winds where you'd expect the strongest winds in an eyewall.

She has a large eye, as clearly seen on radar.

[Bamagirl2408]

This is the most I have ever posted probably because this one is actually close. I susally just read and don't log in. I thought by following it was headed into the panhandle, its southeast of gulf shores, headed nine etc but the NHc has it at 88 west headed 350 degrees. Which is accurate? Love the site. It gets confusing though

To be fair, it is pretty confusing deciphering what it’s doing. Generally looping, but the aggregate motion may a very, very slow crawl to the northeast. The expansion of the NE quad on satellite gives the illusion of a more decisive NE movement, but radar tells the real story right now.

Makes sense, I got confused by the advisory saying motion was 350 degrees and it LOOKS NE to everyone posting, I seriously can't really tell myself. It's looked the same for what feels like 5 years

[supercane4867]

Eyewall still open to the SW on microwave

[NDG]

Eyewall still open to the SW on microwave

https://i.imgur.com/tuFbrDv.jpg

No need for microwave when the radar also shows it clearly

[Dean4Storms]

Several cells with radar indicated waterspouts from PCB to Destin area getting close to coastline.

[NDG]

Pressure either holding steady or went up a mb on latest pass.

URNT15 KNHC 160049
AF305 1219A SALLY HDOB 21 20200916
004030 2943N 08805W 6969 02949 9763 +142 +121 038030 035 037 000 00
004100 2942N 08803W 6965 02948 9751 +149 +119 034023 026 035 000 00
004130 2940N 08801W 6965 02946 9743 +151 +110 023016 021 030 000 00
004200 2940N 08759W 6971 02934 9740 +155 +101 027011 014 025 000 00
004230 2939N 08758W 6970 02935 9734 +159 +093 038004 009 022 000 00
004300 2938N 08756W 6967 02936 9735 +160 +087 127001 002 021 000 00
004330 2937N 08754W 6963 02938 9733 +159 +090 249002 003 021 000 00
004400 2936N 08753W 6970 02932 9736 +155 +101 220008 010 020 000 00
004430 2934N 08751W 6969 02935 9735 +155 +096 215012 014 020 000 00
004500 2933N 08750W 6965 02940 9739 +152 +097 220016 017 021 000 00
004530 2932N 08748W 6973 02931 9740 +151 +107 225022 026 029 000 00
004600 2930N 08747W 6969 02937 9749 +143 +110 235032 034 037 000 00
004630 2929N 08745W 6967 02942 9755 +143 +098 231033 034 043 001 00
004700 2928N 08744W 6965 02949 9763 +140 +100 227036 039 048 001 00
004730 2927N 08743W 6970 02947 9768 +136 +114 228046 048 053 001 00
004800 2925N 08741W 6967 02959 9783 +126 +120 230060 064 055 003 01
004830 2924N 08740W 6969 02965 //// +120 //// 228066 067 057 002 01
004900 2923N 08738W 6962 02983 //// +115 //// 226069 070 058 003 01
004930 2922N 08737W 6971 02985 //// +116 //// 229071 072 063 003 01
005000 2920N 08735W 6963 03008 9841 +120 +109 230072 073 064 003 00
$$

[Blinhart]

Could she be starting her loop already and never make it in land??? Just wondering since everyone is confused with no upper level winds to direct her to go anywheres.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like Recon center fix more ENE of last fix

[cheezyWXguy]

I’m surprised at how symmetrical the windfield has become. Very large swath of 80-100mph winds aloft on both the east and west sides

[TheStormExpert]

Couldn't imagine the intensity if the dry air or wind shear wasn't present.

[ColdMiser123]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 87.9W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES

[DestinHurricane]

From NHC: Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Sally's maximum winds have increased to near 85 mph (140
km/h). This new intensity will be incorporated into the next full
advisory issued at 10 PM CDT. Some additional strengthening is
possible before Sally's center reaches the northern Gulf coast on
Wednesday.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1306035613553102848

[Blow_Hard]

Tornado warning Bay County

[Nimbus]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 87.9W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES

May have peaked and recon still has her hugging the 88 longitude.

[NDG]

Buoy south of Orange Beach now has winds gusting to 78 mph.

Name:Buoy 42012
Provider:MARITIME
Valid:15 Sep 8:40 PM EDT
Temp:79 °F26 °C
Wind Speed:54 mph47 kts
Wind Dir:E90°
Gust:78 mph68 kts
Water Temp:83 °F29 °C

[ColdMiser123]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 87.9W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES

May have peaked and recon still has her hugging the 88 longitude.

This could intensify until the moment of landfall. From 1z (8 pm CDT) until landfall, the 18z Euro deepens this 8 more mb, which would put this in the mid 960s, given where it is now pressure wise.