ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2941 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:11 pm

NDG wrote:Pressure either holding steady or went up a mb on latest pass.

URNT15 KNHC 160049
AF305 1219A SALLY HDOB 21 20200916
004030 2943N 08805W 6969 02949 9763 +142 +121 038030 035 037 000 00
004100 2942N 08803W 6965 02948 9751 +149 +119 034023 026 035 000 00
004130 2940N 08801W 6965 02946 9743 +151 +110 023016 021 030 000 00
004200 2940N 08759W 6971 02934 9740 +155 +101 027011 014 025 000 00
004230 2939N 08758W 6970 02935 9734 +159 +093 038004 009 022 000 00
004300 2938N 08756W 6967 02936 9735 +160 +087 127001 002 021 000 00
004330 2937N 08754W 6963 02938 9733 +159 +090 249002 003 021 000 00
004400 2936N 08753W 6970 02932 9736 +155 +101 220008 010 020 000 00
004430 2934N 08751W 6969 02935 9735 +155 +096 215012 014 020 000 00
004500 2933N 08750W 6965 02940 9739 +152 +097 220016 017 021 000 00
004530 2932N 08748W 6973 02931 9740 +151 +107 225022 026 029 000 00
004600 2930N 08747W 6969 02937 9749 +143 +110 235032 034 037 000 00
004630 2929N 08745W 6967 02942 9755 +143 +098 231033 034 043 001 00
004700 2928N 08744W 6965 02949 9763 +140 +100 227036 039 048 001 00
004730 2927N 08743W 6970 02947 9768 +136 +114 228046 048 053 001 00
004800 2925N 08741W 6967 02959 9783 +126 +120 230060 064 055 003 01
004830 2924N 08740W 6969 02965 //// +120 //// 228066 067 057 002 01
004900 2923N 08738W 6962 02983 //// +115 //// 226069 070 058 003 01
004930 2922N 08737W 6971 02985 //// +116 //// 229071 072 063 003 01
005000 2920N 08735W 6963 03008 9841 +120 +109 230072 073 064 003 00
$$


They most have calibrated the extrap, new VDM actually shows pressure down to 973mb

026
URNT12 KNHC 160103
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL192020
A. 16/00:42:50Z
B. 29.64 deg N 087.94 deg W
C. 700 mb 2897 m
D. 973 mb
E. 010 deg 9 kt
F. OPEN S
G. C30
H. 75 kt
I. 304 deg 19 nm 00:37:30Z
J. 046 deg 72 kt
K. 305 deg 26 nm 00:35:30Z
L. 66 kt
M. 131 deg 28 nm 00:51:00Z
N. 219 deg 83 kt
O. 131 deg 38 nm 00:54:00Z
P. 11 C / 3053 m
Q. 16 C / 3048 m
R. 9 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 3 nm
U. AF305 1219A SALLY OB 12
MAX FL WIND 85 KT 072 / 34 NM 23:46:30Z
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2942 Postby ClarCari » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:11 pm

Sally is in the middle of an atmospheric tug of war in terms of intensity and direction. Looking at any little increase or decrease and stating it’s on a strengthening or weakening trend is not only premature but may also drive you mad :lol:
Last edited by ClarCari on Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2943 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:14 pm

NDG wrote:
NDG wrote:Pressure either holding steady or went up a mb on latest pass.

URNT15 KNHC 160049
AF305 1219A SALLY HDOB 21 20200916
004030 2943N 08805W 6969 02949 9763 +142 +121 038030 035 037 000 00
004100 2942N 08803W 6965 02948 9751 +149 +119 034023 026 035 000 00
004130 2940N 08801W 6965 02946 9743 +151 +110 023016 021 030 000 00
004200 2940N 08759W 6971 02934 9740 +155 +101 027011 014 025 000 00
004230 2939N 08758W 6970 02935 9734 +159 +093 038004 009 022 000 00
004300 2938N 08756W 6967 02936 9735 +160 +087 127001 002 021 000 00
004330 2937N 08754W 6963 02938 9733 +159 +090 249002 003 021 000 00
004400 2936N 08753W 6970 02932 9736 +155 +101 220008 010 020 000 00
004430 2934N 08751W 6969 02935 9735 +155 +096 215012 014 020 000 00
004500 2933N 08750W 6965 02940 9739 +152 +097 220016 017 021 000 00
004530 2932N 08748W 6973 02931 9740 +151 +107 225022 026 029 000 00
004600 2930N 08747W 6969 02937 9749 +143 +110 235032 034 037 000 00
004630 2929N 08745W 6967 02942 9755 +143 +098 231033 034 043 001 00
004700 2928N 08744W 6965 02949 9763 +140 +100 227036 039 048 001 00
004730 2927N 08743W 6970 02947 9768 +136 +114 228046 048 053 001 00
004800 2925N 08741W 6967 02959 9783 +126 +120 230060 064 055 003 01
004830 2924N 08740W 6969 02965 //// +120 //// 228066 067 057 002 01
004900 2923N 08738W 6962 02983 //// +115 //// 226069 070 058 003 01
004930 2922N 08737W 6971 02985 //// +116 //// 229071 072 063 003 01
005000 2920N 08735W 6963 03008 9841 +120 +109 230072 073 064 003 00
$$


They most have calibrated the extrap, new VDM actually shows pressure down to 973mb

026
URNT12 KNHC 160103
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL192020
A. 16/00:42:50Z
B. 29.64 deg N 087.94 deg W
C. 700 mb 2897 m
D. 973 mb
E. 010 deg 9 kt
F. OPEN S
G. C30
H. 75 kt
I. 304 deg 19 nm 00:37:30Z
J. 046 deg 72 kt
K. 305 deg 26 nm 00:35:30Z
L. 66 kt
M. 131 deg 28 nm 00:51:00Z
N. 219 deg 83 kt
O. 131 deg 38 nm 00:54:00Z
P. 11 C / 3053 m
Q. 16 C / 3048 m
R. 9 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 3 nm
U. AF305 1219A SALLY OB 12
MAX FL WIND 85 KT 072 / 34 NM 23:46:30Z

973? Maybe it still has a shot to regain cat2
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2944 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:18 pm

saved loop
Image
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2945 Postby Craters » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:24 pm

NDG wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:Still a fairly substantial area around the center of lighter winds where you'd expect the strongest winds in an eyewall.



She has a large eye, as clearly seen on radar.

https://i.imgur.com/rKRFmmC.jpg

Wow -- it sure is! It's way bigger than that airplane there that's droppin' them torpedoes while it's laying out that golf course. Funny place to be puttin' a golf course, though...
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2946 Postby Gums » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:24 pm

Salute!

Dean4 brought up an important thing to consider if you are new to the storms along the coast.

Ground is so saturated that I would think twice about sleeping downwind of a big tree tonight.


One reason we like a fast-moving storm coming in at 90 deg to the coastline is the minimum rainfall and saturation of tree roots ( surge is more complicated). The loblolly pines are notorious for blowing over, and for a surprise, how about an oak tree? Yep, the "laurel oak" has no big tap root like the "spanish/live oaks" that live to be hundreds of years old. Ditto for the longleaf pines we have in the Eglin AFB area ( and the two 70-footers I have beat Opal when 9 or 10 of the wimpy loblolly/short-leaf pines went down).

We are a fair distance from Ivan's landfall, but my neighbor's Laurel oak came uprooted and slowly came to rest on my roof. Had it gone all at once I would have had major damage versus a few roof shingles.

If you are new down here, think about your trees!

Gums sends...
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2947 Postby KimmieLa » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:28 pm

tolakram wrote:saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/Cw5iqGC.gif


Lol, I did the paper test on it, due north on these particular runs. It is wobbling, east and north, east and north.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2948 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:32 pm

That was a pretty good ENE wobble.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2949 Postby DestinHurricane » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:34 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:That was a pretty good ENE wobble.


The eye is due east of last center fix Image
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2950 Postby fwbbreeze » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:35 pm

Strongest winds of the evening just blew threw Choctawhatchee Bay with that special marine warning. Wow!
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2951 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:40 pm

HH reporting FL winds at 90kts at about 3100 feet what would that normally equate to at the surface?
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2952 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:43 pm

Sally is very likely still strengthening gradually. Southern eyewall just made its first real attempt at closing off and winds aloft continue to increase. We’ll see if this holds up
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2953 Postby DestinHurricane » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:44 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:HH reporting FL winds at 90kts at about 3100 feet what would that normally equate to at the surface?

I think 90% reduction rate so would be 81 kts. Can someone else confirm this?
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2954 Postby Blow_Hard » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:44 pm

fwbbreeze wrote:Strongest winds of the evening just blew threw Choctawhatchee Bay with that special marine warning. Wow!



Same here...it has really picked up. I'm a little worried if this keeps up that I may lose a couple of the few trees that Michael spared me.. I've got a couple of them "staked" but that last band that came through really had them rattling around.
Last edited by Blow_Hard on Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2955 Postby LowerAlabamaTider » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:45 pm

I know this . . Even if she decides to go a tad more east we are getting pounded by winds right now. For about the last 2 hours, and they keep getting stronger.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2956 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:45 pm

Has Aric checked in lately? He hasn't posted any new videos from Perdido Key in a while, unless he's napping before the long night.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2957 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:46 pm

That oil rig just reported a gust to 105mph.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2958 Postby La Sirena » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:46 pm

NDG wrote:Has Aric checked in lately? He hasn't posted any new videos from Perdido Key in a while, unless he's napping before the long night.

Wondered that as well. Had just checked and didn’t see anything new.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2959 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:48 pm

Do we know how much rain those costal towns have received already? Sally is taking her sweet time making landfall and those towns are getting downpours already according to the radar.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2960 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:50 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Do we know how much rain those costal towns have received already? Sally is taking her sweet time making landfall and those towns are getting downpours already according to the radar.

Over 7" at my house in Panama City so far.
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