ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Since the SFMR is unreliable in shallow water and there hasn't been obvious bad data (like with Isaias), I'd have to go with that data and put the intensity at 90 kt.

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1306089035551703041

[Hurricaneman]

I’d go 100mph at 1am even though there’s enough evidence for 105mph

[lovingseason2013]

I have family riding it out at a condo on Pensacola beach. . We’re trying to stay calm bc there’s not much they can do at this point but should I be worried like crazy you think ?

Those condos can take a beating and come out okay. They should be just fine, it will not be a fun night for them, but they will survive.

[us89]

SFMR still a bit lower than would be expected from FL, but shallower waters probably suggest that is less reliable of an indicator.

I expect an upgrade in the position update at 1 AM.

[NDG]

Since the SFMR is unreliable in shallow water and there hasn't been obvious bad data (like with Isaias), I'd have to go with that data and put the intensity at 90 kt.

Do you consider 100' deep water shallow?

[PandaCitrus]

It's probably a good idea to go into the interior hallway or the stairwells. You really don't want to be in your condo unit if the windows blow out. Not a safe situation but structurally the building will be fine.

I have family riding it out at a condo on Pensacola beach. . We’re trying to stay calm bc there’s not much they can do at this point but should I be worried like crazy you think ?

Those condos can take a beating and come out okay. They should be just fine, it will not be a fun night for them, but they will survive.

[NotoSans]

A blend of flight-level and SFMR winds yield an initial intensity of 85kt.

[CrazyC83]

Since the SFMR is unreliable in shallow water and there hasn't been obvious bad data (like with Isaias), I'd have to go with that data and put the intensity at 90 kt.

Do you consider 100' deep water shallow?

That's very shallow for ocean/sea water. For comparison, the open Atlantic is more than 10,000 feet deep - in spots up to 30,000 feet deep.

[NDG]

Crazy that Pensacola already has had near 15" of rain already and yet has to go through the eyewall's massive rain, the flooding is going to be crazy in all that area.

[ColdMiser123]

Seeing a lot of radar bin velocities of ~110 KT, which at ~1500 meters supports 90 KT at the surface, completely consistent with the FL wind recon just found in the eastern eyewall.

[Aric Dunn]

Doppler velocities just blew up. 120 to 130 mph below the level recon is flying..

This should be upgraded

[Uptownmeow]

I have family riding it out at a condo on Pensacola beach. . We’re trying to stay calm bc there’s not much they can do at this point but should I be worried like crazy you think ?

Those condos can take a beating and come out okay. They should be just fine, it will not be a fun night for them, but they will survive.

That’s what I said. They’ll survive but just may have the ever living sally scared out of them

[NDG]

Since the SFMR is unreliable in shallow water and there hasn't been obvious bad data (like with Isaias), I'd have to go with that data and put the intensity at 90 kt.

Do you consider 100' deep water shallow?

That's very shallow for ocean/sea water. For comparison, the open Atlantic is more than 10,000 feet deep - in spots up to 30,000 feet deep.

I would think that SFMR would do well in 100' deep water vs 30-50' closer to the coast.

[northjaxpro]

The eyewall is really tightening on approach to landfall. Wow. She is really strenghtening right now. What a terrible night for everyone out in the panhandle. My prayers for them tonight.

[CrazyC83]

Doppler velocities just blew up. 120 to 130 mph below the level recon is flying..

This should be upgraded

That would support an intensity of 90-95 kt.

[Dean4Storms]

Just steady strengthening, needs to stop.

[tropicwatch]

Since the SFMR is unreliable in shallow water and there hasn't been obvious bad data (like with Isaias), I'd have to go with that data and put the intensity at 90 kt.

Do you consider 100' deep water shallow?

I would, 60 miles off Panama City is the 100 fathom curve, 600 feet.

[northjaxpro]

Anyone heard anything more from Aric recently who is out there in the storm?

[wx98]

Doppler velocities just blew up. 120 to 130 mph below the level recon is flying..

This should be upgraded

The plane needs to fly through the NE side. They went due E that time.