ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DestinHurricane]

Anyone heard anything more from Aric recently?

He moved east from perdido.

[Dean4Storms]

Pensacola is going to get hammered.

[Fancy1001]

Still has about 12 hours left to strengthen. What are the chances of it going through RI by then?

[Ivanhater]

So much for weakening. Yet another strengthening hurricane for the gulf coast.

[CrazyC83]

Still has about 12 hours left to strengthen. What are the chances of it going through RI by then?

Upwelling is the biggest limiting factor. But at this rate a major hurricane can't be ruled out.

[ClarCari]

Still has about 12 hours left to strengthen. What are the chances of it going through RI by then?

She may already as we speak..

[Ivanhater]

Pensacola is going to get hammered.

I just wish it would hit and move on

[wx98]

Still has about 12 hours left to strengthen. What are the chances of it going through RI by then?

Doesn’t have that long. Maybe 6 hours tops. I expected landfall 1 to 3 hours from now but that may be too soon at this point.

[NDG]

Eyewall is closed now, 30 nautical miles, is huge.

671
URNT12 KNHC 160436
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL192020
A. 16/04:16:30Z
B. 29.79 deg N 087.83 deg W
C. 700 mb 2856 m
D. 970 mb
E. 335 deg 5 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C30
H. 80 kt
I. 273 deg 15 nm 04:12:00Z
J. 013 deg 74 kt
K. 272 deg 23 nm 04:09:30Z
L. 81 kt
M. 089 deg 20 nm 04:22:30Z
N. 175 deg 102 kt
O. 089 deg 23 nm 04:23:30Z
P. 13 C / 3053 m
Q. 17 C / 3035 m
R. 10 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 2.25 nm
U. AF305 1219A SALLY OB 28
MAX FL WIND 102 KT 089 / 23 NM 04:23:30Z
;

[bella_may]

Well I did not expect the strong winds to be this far west of center.

[northjaxpro]

This is Hanna all over agsin, a steadily intensifying cyclone on its approach to landfall. I take back my earlier thought of it becoming a major It is moving at a crawl so it may have a very slight shot at getting near Cat 3 at landfall..

[us89]

Cat 2 officially

...12 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...SALLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS IT INCHES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...

Recent data from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and
the Mobile Alabama Doppler weather radar indicate that Sally has
strengthened to 100 mph (160 km/h).

If further strengthening becomes likely before Sally's center
reaches the northern Gulf coast later this morning, then a Special
Advisory will be issued at 100 AM CDT.

A sustained wind of 76 mph (122 km/h) with a gust to 96 mph (155
km/h) was recently reported in Sally's northern eyewall by NOAA
buoy 42012, located about 50 miles southeast of Mobile, Alabama. An
unofficial report of a wind gust to 60 mph (97 km/h) was recently
received from an amateur radio operator in Navarre Beach, Florida.


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 87.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

[Fancy1001]

Still has about 12 hours left to strengthen. What are the chances of it going through RI by then?

Doesn’t have that long. Maybe 6 hours tops. I expected landfall 1 to 3 hours from now but that may be too soon at this point.

The 00z models have it making landfall in 9-12 hours. It's still moving at a snails pace.

[wx98]

Still has about 12 hours left to strengthen. What are the chances of it going through RI by then?

Doesn’t have that long. Maybe 6 hours tops. I expected landfall 1 to 3 hours from now but that may be too soon at this point.

The 00z models have it making landfall in 9-12 hours. It's still moving at a snails pace.

The edge of the eye is 13 miles from the coast. I’ll take radar over models...

[ElectricStorm]

NHC could be hinting at a potential major with this if trends continue

If further strengthening becomes likely before Sally's center
reaches the northern Gulf coast later this morning, then a Special
Advisory will be issued at 100 AM CDT.

[CrazyC83]

The mentions of the Special Advisory are interesting. They probably recognize that it is ramping up but want to see the NE quad. Anything over 90 kt and they will likely pull it - maybe to suggest a major at landfall.

[CrazyC83]

NHC could be hinting at a potential major with this if trends continue

If further strengthening becomes likely before Sally's center
reaches the northern Gulf coast later this morning, then a Special
Advisory will be issued at 100 AM CDT.

That's my thinking. They probably would have gone with 90 kt but wanted more confirmation. If the NE quad finds winds that support 95 kt, they might go with that to make the advisory upgrade and forecast a major.

[Aric Dunn]

I am sitting pretty right now that it has started moving north.. will get the right front onshore surge and highest winds. most of everyone else is to the west.

could make it to cat 3 here shortly.

winds here are sustained right around 65 to 70 mph. gust are higher of course..

the surge is starting to come over the dunes.. tide is coming up slowly as well


I will be starting streaming again in probably 30 min with the edge of the eyewall gets closer.

[ElectricStorm]

NHC could be hinting at a potential major with this if trends continue

If further strengthening becomes likely before Sally's center
reaches the northern Gulf coast later this morning, then a Special
Advisory will be issued at 100 AM CDT.

That's my thinking. They probably would have gone with 90 kt but wanted more confirmation. If the NE quad finds winds that support 95 kt, they might go with that to make the advisory upgrade and forecast a major.

It's amazing... Yet another storm bombing out before landfall on the gulf coast. It's unreal how many times it's happened the last few years, crazy

[runnergal70]

I haven’t post but I lurk. I live in Fairhope along Mobile Bay. We just lost our power about 30 minutes ago. It is just me, my 18 year old daughter, our two cats and dog. It is blowing pretty hard here and raining. I have been through my share of storms but usually I have family around me. Different tonight. I have to admit I am a little scared.