ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

The worse of the surge will be that right front quadrant of the eyewall, which will be Pensacola east to Destin.

[Bamagirl2408]

Is the landfall expected to take place on the AL or FL aide of the stte border?


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It’ll be very close, but looking like Gulf Shores/Orange Beach in Alabama

Fox 10 in Mobile has it going over Gulf Shores. Outer eyewall 13 miles away

[ElectricStorm]

I smell that special advisory coming

[Extratropical94]

Probably a gust,but ... dropsonde measured 112 kt winds at the surface in the NE eyewall.

Now that drop is concerning

https://i.imgur.com/PsuYIWV.png

Wow 112kts. Probably a gust right? Still though this storm is no joke

Could be a gust, but the fact that winds are >110 kt throughout the lowest 300 feet definitely supports an upgrade to Cat 3

[Florabamaman]

I miss Alan Sealls from WKRG. He is an excellent communicator for events such as this.

[Blow_Hard]

I smell that special advisory coming

With it having so little time left before it comes ashore and to do much more strengthening, do you think they'll find it necessary to do that?

[ElectricStorm]

I smell that special advisory coming

With it having so little time left before it comes ashore and to do much more strengthening, do you think they'll find it necessary to do that?

They mentioned in the last update that they might do one at 1am CDT

[cheezyWXguy]

I smell that special advisory coming

With it having so little time left before it comes ashore and to do much more strengthening, do you think they'll find it necessary to do that?

If this were in open ocean, probably not. But with it bearing down, hours from landfall in a populated area, I do believe they would if they feel the data justifies it

[CrazyC83]

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1306105438824468481

[northjaxpro]

It seems that Sally may have very slightly picked up movement. Looks as if she could landfall within the next 3 to 4 hours.

[us89]

Eye dropsonde splashed down at 969 mb with 9 kt wind, suggesting a new central pressure of 968 mb.

[Florabamaman]

I smell that special advisory coming

With it having so little time left before it comes ashore and to do much more strengthening, do you think they'll find it necessary to do that?

They kinda foreshadowed it in their last advisory.

[Blow_Hard]

I miss Alan Sealls from WKRG. He is an excellent communicator for events such as this.

Yeah we had Jason Kelly here in Panama City and he was fantastic.

RIP Jason

[blacktopninja]

It seems the NW side of Sally is stronger according to recon

Deformation on the NW side of the storm is squeezing moisture out. Vertical convergence is occurring between the circulation of Sally and the upper level trough.

file:///Users/newguest/Desktop/gfs_upperforcing_us_fh6-6.gif

https://www.weather.gov/media/lmk/soo/f ... s_lmk2.pdf

[CrazyC83]

Probably a gust,but ... dropsonde measured 112 kt winds at the surface in the NE eyewall.

Now that drop is concerning

https://i.imgur.com/PsuYIWV.png

Wow 112kts. Probably a gust right? Still though this storm is no joke

Could be a gust, but the fact that winds are >110 kt throughout the lowest 300 feet definitely supports an upgrade to Cat 3

Typically, using the normal gust factor, 95 kt sustained winds mean gusts of about 115 kt.

[NDG]

Pressure down to 969mb, per VDM.

112
URNT12 KNHC 160537
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL192020
A. 16/05:14:40Z
B. 29.86 deg N 087.82 deg W
C. 700 mb 2830 m
D. 969 mb
E. 160 deg 9 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C30
H. 83 kt
I. 071 deg 15 nm 05:10:00Z
J. 153 deg 92 kt
K. 071 deg 22 nm 05:08:00Z
L. 85 kt
M. 290 deg 16 nm 05:22:00Z
N. 048 deg 95 kt
O. 301 deg 23 nm 05:25:00Z
P. 10 C / 3048 m
Q. 16 C / 3052 m
R. 10 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1.25 nm
U. AF305 1219A SALLY OB 32
MAX FL WIND 102 KT 089 / 23 NM 04:23:00Z

[StPeteMike]

I wonder if It could even make it to Cat 4 at this point. Still has another 11 hours ( 7 maybe with no real land interaction) left.

[Bamagirl2408]

I miss Alan Sealls from WKRG. He is an excellent communicator for events such as this.

He is chief met on NBC 15 wpmi

[Stormgodess]

Not sure where on this site this should be asked?? So if in wrong place let me know.

But I was curious. Do you all have contact info listed anywhere on the site, for rescue groups like The Cajun Navy? I know we have Cajun Navy guys as far as Alabama right now. Havent seen any post about Florida.

[smw1981]

I miss Alan Sealls from WKRG. He is an excellent communicator for events such as this.

He is on WPMI now! He has been covering Sally from the start and is providing updates every 30 minutes on their Facebook page.. Hope that helps..