ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

The Met on the weather channel said "we are seeing some slight strengthening" I don't think 20 mph over the last couple of hours or so is considered "slight"

[cfisher]

The larger eye can make it look a bit more closer to landfall than it actually is compared to a smaller eye btw

The actual center is still roughly 25 miles out. So it’ll be a little longer still. Probably 3-4 more hours.

But 25 / 2 = 12.5

[ConvergenceZone]

The larger eye can make it look a bit more closer to landfall than it actually is compared to a smaller eye btw

The actual center is still roughly 25 miles out. So it’ll be a little longer still. Probably 3-4 more hours.

But 25 / 2 = 12.5

it's slowly picking up speed. Just look at the radar, the eyewall is almost onshore. 3 to 4 hours seems right for the "center"to hit land, but the eyewall will hit land within the next hour or so.

[CrazyC83]

The larger eye can make it look a bit more closer to landfall than it actually is compared to a smaller eye btw

The actual center is still roughly 25 miles out. So it’ll be a little longer still. Probably 3-4 more hours.

But 25 / 2 = 12.5

Land interaction will start playing a role there too.

[Fancy1001]

I guess Sally chose Pensacola FL as her retirement destination lol.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The larger eye can make it look a bit more closer to landfall than it actually is compared to a smaller eye btw

The actual center is still roughly 25 miles out. So it’ll be a little longer still. Probably 3-4 more hours.

But 25 / 2 = 12.5

^ This. We have 12 hours or so left until landfall. This speed is confirmed by latest recon too.

Tonight's situation definitely reminds me of Harvey. That storm deepened literally miles off the coast of Texas right up until landfall.

[EquusStorm]

Flash flood emergency AL coast/Pensacola area with extremely strong wording.

[northjaxpro]

The actual center is still roughly 25 miles out. So it’ll be a little longer still. Probably 3-4 more hours.

But 25 / 2 = 12.5

it's slowly picking up speed. Just look at the radar, the eyewall is almost onshore. 3 to 4 hours seems right for the "center"to hit land, but the eyewall will hit land within the next hour or so.

The northern eyewall is already on shore.

[FLpanhandle91]

Any chance the current eye contracts with a combination of land interaction and intensification, keeping her offshore a bit longer?

[TallahasseeMan]

Recon is taking another pass so it’s possible NHC is waiting to see the data from that before putting out the special advisory.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ConvergenceZone]

But 25 / 2 = 12.5

it's slowly picking up speed. Just look at the radar, the eyewall is almost onshore. 3 to 4 hours seems right for the "center"to hit land, but the eyewall will hit land within the next hour or so.

The northern eyewall is already on shore.

Really? Wow, it's moving faster than I thought then....I turned the TV off so haven't seen the latest loop

[wx98]

The actual center is still roughly 25 miles out. So it’ll be a little longer still. Probably 3-4 more hours.

But 25 / 2 = 12.5

^ This. We have 12 hours or so left until landfall. This speed is confirmed by latest recon too.

Tonight's situation definitely reminds me of Harvey. That storm deepened literally miles off the coast of Texas right up until landfall.

This is wrong. We have maybe 3-4 hours left til landfall. It has gained 30 miles on Gulf Shores on the last 6 hours or so.

[smw1981]

Can someone please post a link to Aric’s live feed? I know he posted it earlier today but after looking through a lot of pages, I haven’t been able to find it. Thank you!

[ConvergenceZone]

But 25 / 2 = 12.5

^ This. We have 12 hours or so left until landfall. This speed is confirmed by latest recon too.

Tonight's situation definitely reminds me of Harvey. That storm deepened literally miles off the coast of Texas right up until landfall.

This is wrong. We have maybe 3-4 hours left til landfall. It has gained 30 miles on Gulf Shores on the last 6 hours or so.

Yea, since the eye is already coming onshore, I don't see it taking 12 hours to come on shore. 3 hours maybe...

[USTropics]

Any chance the current eye contracts with a combination of land interaction and intensification, keeping her offshore a bit longer?

Reflectivity maximum is typically enhanced over land, due to increased surface friction and convergence. Should definitely see some contraction as this makes landfall.

[CrazyC83]

It looks to be moving about 4-5 mph based on the Recon fixes. At this rate, landfall looks to be around 6 am around Orange Beach.

[TallahasseeMan]

Respect to the recon crew that stuck around to take 7 eye passes.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Hypercane_Kyle]

But 25 / 2 = 12.5

^ This. We have 12 hours or so left until landfall. This speed is confirmed by latest recon too.

Tonight's situation definitely reminds me of Harvey. That storm deepened literally miles off the coast of Texas right up until landfall.

This is wrong. We have maybe 3-4 hours left til landfall. It has gained 30 miles on Gulf Shores on the last 6 hours or so.

You better tell the NHC that. At 1:00 AM CDT the NHC has the storm at 29.9°N 87.8°W moving NNE at 2 mph. That's 24 miles from Gulf Shores. 24 miles / 2 mph = 12 hours until landfall.

Granted, we'll probably see the storm accelerate some, so probably less than 12 hours. 8:00 AM central seems right, in line with the previous NHC forecast.

[cfisher]

Also it'll probably wobble a little east as this CB wraps around.

[USTropics]

I'd put landfall around ~6:00AM, northern eyewall is starting to come ashore. Also appears to be a few possible mesovortices rotating within the eye (which coincides with the strengthening we've seen from recon). Hard to confirm without visible satellite though.