ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Going live in the eyewall.. monsterous sounds.

https://www.facebook.com/Hurricane-Sall ... 354981427/

Good luck. Praying for ya. Stay safe!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Continuing to deepen. Eye is warming.

[Jonny]

 https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/1306116092163698688

[FLpanhandle91]

Obvious inner eye wall forming inside of a large eye right now on IR and radar. Does this rotate around west, south, and then east?

[northjaxpro]

136mph in 2 separate bins in the NE quad. Highest I've seen yet.

True to form. The NE Front Quadrant always showing its power. I think we will get a special advisory shortly indicating Sally being a major.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Even @iCyclone is surprised at how strong of a hurricane this is turning out to be.

Reed Timmer's stream is pretty intense, a lot like Laura.

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1306116314356908034

[Fancy1001]

Continuing to deepen. Eye is warming.

https://i.imgur.com/ryvIyIG.jpg

This is the 5th time I think I've said this this year (Cristobol, Hanna, Isaias, Laura, and now Sally), Think about how much worse it could have been if it had one more day to strengthen.

[cfisher]

Smaller (maybe Pinhole) eye forming!!

[wx98]

Obvious inner eye wall forming inside of a large eye right now on IR and radar. Does this rotate around west, south, and then east?

If that closes off, it’ll chop the eye down to 20-22 miles and landfall time will be quicker. The center is currently about 18 miles offshore.

[Beef Stew]

It's not very often the NHC is late for advisories, especially when giving a specific window. Probably quite a scene at HQ right now as they piece this together...

[ClarCari]

They are definitely debating for a major right now. It’d be quicker if they knew to only up it 5mph or keep it steady.

[us89]

Obvious inner eye wall forming inside of a large eye right now on IR and radar. Does this rotate around west, south, and then east?

If that closes off, it’ll chop the eye down to 20-22 miles and landfall time will be quicker. The center is currently about 18 miles offshore.

Smaller eye would likely translate into even faster winds.

[Texas Snowman]

Up to 30 inches of rain in the next 24-hours...on top of the up to 16 inches they have already had.

Wow.
————

Flash Flood Warning
ALC003-097-FLC033-091-113-161145-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FF.W.0027.200916T0400Z-200916T1145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1100 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Baldwin County in southwestern Alabama...
Southeastern Mobile County in southwestern Alabama...
Escambia County in northwestern Florida...
Okaloosa County in northwestern Florida...
Santa Rosa County in northwestern Florida...

* Until 645 AM CDT Wednesday.

* At 11 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Up to 16 inches of rain have
fallen close to the coast over portions of southern Baldwin County
Alabama and into the western Florida Panhandle. Flash flooding is
already occurring.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Tropical rainbands
producing flash flooding.

SOURCE...Doppler radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...

Downtown Mobile, Midtown Mobile, Pensacola, Prichard, Ferry Pass,
Brent, West Pensacola, Wright, Fort Walton Beach, Ensley, Daphne,
Tillmans Corner, Warrington, Crestview, Fairhope, Saraland,
Niceville, Gonzalez, Destin and Eglin AFB.

This is ALREADY progressing into a serious situation, with locally
30" of rain during the next 24 hours and within this warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3038 8841 3074 8841 3077 8826 3096 8795
3100 8719 3088 8686 3078 8639 3037 8639
3039 8665 3021 8801 3024 8809 3020 8831
3025 8834 3027 8813 3037 8827

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL...1-2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

JMM

[CrazyC83]

Sally is trying her hardest to get the name retired...especially if it comes ashore as a major.

[EquusStorm]

Looks like the AL coast is in the worst of it, but that could last a long time as the movement speed is so slow. Ugh I really hope this starts to weaken as it reaches the coast...

[wx98]

Obvious inner eye wall forming inside of a large eye right now on IR and radar. Does this rotate around west, south, and then east?

If that closes off, it’ll chop the eye down to 20-22 miles and landfall time will be quicker. The center is currently about 18 miles offshore.

Smaller eye would likely translate into even faster winds.

I was just thinking that myself. A new AF plane is on the way from Houston if it makes it in time. The northern eyewall is already on shore so it’ll be obs from the east side to confirm Cat 3.

[ElectricStorm]

Sally is trying her hardest to get the name retired...especially if it comes ashore as a major.

At this point with all that rainfall coming in it's got a pretty good shot at getting the boot

[cheezyWXguy]

Smaller (maybe Pinhole) eye forming!!

Far from pinhole, but it looks like its contracting to less than 25 miles.

[Beef Stew]

Sally is trying her hardest to get the name retired...especially if it comes ashore as a major.

At this point with all that rainfall coming in it's got a pretty good shot at getting the boot

At this rate, especially given the sudden intensification and potential for severe inland and flash flooding, I would be more surprised if she wasn't.

[ElectricStorm]

The longer it takes for that advisory though the higher the chances they put it at 115... Especially if the eye is contracting