ATL: BETA - Models
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- cycloneye
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ATL: BETA - Models
Only model runs.
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- toad strangler
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
toad strangler wrote:00z Euro buries this in MX
For the 0z suite, Canadian does the same. The ICON has it doing a sit-and-spin (aka Sally) just off the coast from Brownsville, while the GFS slowly moves a weak system north into SE Texas later next week.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Of course you can’t put much weight on the models
this hurricane season. I would be concerned anywhere
along the Gulf coast.
this hurricane season. I would be concerned anywhere
along the Gulf coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Stormcenter wrote:Of course you can’t put much weight on the models
this hurricane season. I would be concerned anywhere
along the Gulf coast.
Given how things have gone this season, I am in complete agreement.
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Portastorm wrote:Stormcenter wrote:Of course you can’t put much weight on the models
this hurricane season. I would be concerned anywhere
along the Gulf coast.
Given how things have gone this season, I am in complete agreement.
You might get to 10k this season the way things are going.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
GFS pretty much drops development, but the Euro shows a TS, and both the CMC and GFS-Para have a strong TS/weak hurricane before landfall.
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
UKMET has development too. Decent tropical storm by 144 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
GFS-Para doesn't landfall until +150 hours at the MX/US border with a central pressure of 975 mbar.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
kevin wrote:GFS-Para doesn't landfall until +150 hours at the MX/US border with a central pressure of 975 mbar.
https://i.imgur.com/cCpkaJP.png
I think one of yesterday's Para runs had it heading NE into the area of the central GoM, so I guess we get days of this back and forth.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Hey, that's way more of a signal that's 5+ days out than we got with Sally 3 days out!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
GFS also keeps it quite weak as it interacts with the trough.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Let’s not put too much emphasis on strength
because we know how good the models have done
with that this season.
because we know how good the models have done
with that this season.
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:GFS also keeps it quite weak as it interacts with the trough.
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- weeniepatrol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Matters very little if it is weak. 12z GFS gives areas being flooded right now by Sally a bonus 6-12 in of rainfall from 54h to 120h
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
The end of the GFS stalls it off LA coast then moves it to Texas
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