How many named storms will form in October?

[cycloneye]

Let's have a good participation on this poll that closes on September 30 at 6:44 PM EDT.

I voted four.

[aspen]

I went with 5, but even that might be too conservative. Just look at how much the Atlantic has pumped out in only two weeks! I remember seeing something about VP anomalies indicating this active phase might extend into the middle of October, and since October usually means closer to home development and the Caribbean is still broiling, we could get a Cat 5 next month and potentially more hurricanes and majors. I’m going with 5/3/2 as a lower estimate for October; maybe it could get to 7/3/2 —> 7/5/2.

[CyclonicFury]

Voted four. Every month since May has had an above average number of named storms so far, and I don't see why that would suddenly change.

[Chris90]

I went with 5. A few weeks ago I was unsure that hyperactivity would extend past the end of September, but I think things are going to remain busy through at least October 20th.

I'm also a bit surprised with the chatter about the CV season being done on Twitter and in other threads. It's only September 15th. I know sometimes it ends early, but there's talk like it can't extend into October. Tropical waves start to become less frequent, but Tomas in 2010 formed from a wave at the very end of October. More recently Matthew formed at the end of September in 2016 and carried over into October.

I think Africa probably has more seeds to spit out into the ATL.

[supercane4867]

With a full-blown nina in place certainly don't expect anything close to a dead October.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Four seems right. We'll get to Gamma anyway!

[Hammy]

Went with five. I think we'll get at least as much activity as July.

[ClarCari]

6 or more bc the La Niña is more developed than earlier in the season and I think there should be at least 1 MJO pulse going thru the Atlantic next month that could unleash a big brew of storms in October.

[Blinhart]

Let's find out what happens when we run out of the Greek Alphabet.

[CrazyC83]

Going with 8 - tying the 1950 record. Including 4 hurricanes and 2 majors.

Assuming 3 more in September (98L, 99L and a late month bloomer):

* Tropical Storm Gamma - October 2 in the subtropical Atlantic.
* Major Hurricane Delta (Cat 4) - October 3 in the MDR. Rare late season Cabo Verde storm (fish).
* Hurricane Epsilon (Cat 1) - October 5 in the subtropical Atlantic.
* Tropical Storm Zeta - October 9 in the Gulf, quick landfall.
* Tropical Storm Eta - October 16 in the Gulf, quick landfall.
* Major Hurricane Theta (Cat 5) - October 16 in the Caribbean, strongest storm in Atlantic basin history, rivals Patricia.
* Subtropical Storm Iota - October 19 in the subtropical Atlantic.
* Hurricame Kappa (Cat 2) - October 30 in the Caribbean.

[Kazmit]

Going with 8 - tying the 1950 record. Including 4 hurricanes and 2 majors.

Assuming 3 more in September (98L, 99L and a late month bloomer):

* Tropical Storm Gamma - October 2 in the subtropical Atlantic.
* Major Hurricane Delta (Cat 4) - October 3 in the MDR. Rare late season Cabo Verde storm (fish).
* Hurricane Epsilon (Cat 1) - October 5 in the subtropical Atlantic.
* Tropical Storm Zeta - October 9 in the Gulf, quick landfall.
* Tropical Storm Eta - October 16 in the Gulf, quick landfall.
* Major Hurricane Theta (Cat 5) - October 16 in the Caribbean, strongest storm in Atlantic basin history, rivals Patricia.
* Subtropical Storm Iota - October 19 in the subtropical Atlantic.
* Hurricame Kappa (Cat 2) - October 30 in the Caribbean.

Theta

[Kazmit]

I'm going with 6. I've been too conservative for every one of these month polls so far, so no more.

[tolakram]

I went with 3 for no good reason, honestly. Not sure the frantic pace will keep up, yet pretty sure I'm wrong.

[ElectricStorm]

Going with 8 - tying the 1950 record. Including 4 hurricanes and 2 majors.

Assuming 3 more in September (98L, 99L and a late month bloomer):

* Tropical Storm Gamma - October 2 in the subtropical Atlantic.
* Major Hurricane Delta (Cat 4) - October 3 in the MDR. Rare late season Cabo Verde storm (fish).
* Hurricane Epsilon (Cat 1) - October 5 in the subtropical Atlantic.
* Tropical Storm Zeta - October 9 in the Gulf, quick landfall.
* Tropical Storm Eta - October 16 in the Gulf, quick landfall.
* Major Hurricane Theta (Cat 5) - October 16 in the Caribbean, strongest storm in Atlantic basin history, rivals Patricia.
* Subtropical Storm Iota - October 19 in the subtropical Atlantic.
* Hurricame Kappa (Cat 2) - October 30 in the Caribbean.

Yikes Theta

[FireRat]

Went with 5, and this is still a bit conservative.
All greeks too, hard to believe!

[CyclonicFury]

I'm interested to see how Greektober plays out. Will it be a month of quality, quantity or both? Last year October had 5 named storms but only one short lived hurricane near 45°N, while 2016 for instance only had one storm form in the month but had the highest October ACE of the satellite era since Matthew carried over from September.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm going with 6. I've been too conservative for every one of these month polls so far, so no more.

Hopefully you’re too generous this time around.

[CFLHurricane]

I think six storms will form in October, including two CONUS landfalls, and one cat 5.

[TheStormExpert]

I went with four, but wouldn’t rule out the potential for five.

I think October could be quite active with the potential for Cape Verde season lasting longer than normal. I also believe we will see something significant form in the Western Caribbean and threaten Florida, The Bahamas, or Cuba. Intensity is anyones guess but I wouldn’t rule out a major with that one.

[Monsoonjr99]

I went with 5, which tends to be the limit for October in active seasons, apart from the exceptional 1950 and 2005. I don't expect anything more than 5, but given how 2020 has been, I can't rule out it joining those exceptional Octobers.