ATL: TEDDY - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models
I have to say that I am growing more and more uneasy with the continued west and southwest shifts with the models of Teddy.
4 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models
cp79 wrote:The Hwrf model is actually moving due west or WSW at end of run. No hint of it moving north. So something to keep an eye on.
The 12z run at 126 hours? Still has WNW motion.
0 likes
Eyes: Emily '86, Dean '89, Felix '95, Gert '99, Fabian '03, Humberto '19, Paulette '20
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33399
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models
It's mid-September, so a hard phase to the west Sandy-like is unlikely. However, a weaker trough could certainly phase and deflect Teddy NNW.
0 likes
Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models
One major change I've seen in the model runs recently is thst Paulette gets kicked out faster and faster, likely reducing her interaction with Teddy
0 likes
- ColdMiser123
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 780
- Age: 27
- Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:26 pm
- Location: Northeast US
Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models
Significant changes with the evolution of the trough over the eastern US on the 18z GFS. Much more of it is getting left behind, so this is a clear nod to the Euro. I don't think it will fully cave this run though.
0 likes
B.S., M.S., Meteorology & Atmospheric Science
Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models
ColdMiser123 wrote:A significant number of the CMC ensembles bring this near or over New England:
https://i.imgur.com/tn4DeQn.gif
I’m a bit more curious with the members that take it into the mid Atlantic coastline!
0 likes
Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models
18z HWRF is the same as the 12z in being wildly left of the GFS Operation. This makes me concerned.
0 likes
- DestinHurricane
- Category 4
- Posts: 930
- Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 8:05 am
- Location: Columbus, OH... need to get back in the action
Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models
I still think this will most likely recurve but the trends are interesting, we'll see if they keep up.
0 likes
Destin/Santa Rosa Beach, Florida: Ivan 2004, Dennis 2005, Michael 2018, Sally 2020
Fort Lauderdale, Florida Eta 2020, Many future storms!
THE Ohio State University:
Fort Lauderdale, Florida Eta 2020, Many future storms!
THE Ohio State University:
- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7285
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models
DestinHurricane wrote:I still think this will most likely recurve but the trends are interesting, we'll see if they keep up.
The trend is not your friend
How will this recurve
Out to sea without landfall
Landfall in New Foundland
Landfall in Nova Scotia
Landfall in Eastern New England
1938 Long Island Express track
It’s going to be a long week and we probably won’t know at least on the models until Friday or Saturday and it seems we’re trending in the models from option 2 to option 3 or 4 depending on the model
1 likes
Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models
I guess Florida is out of the woods ? LOL at this point who really knows .
0 likes
Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models
Good news for Bermuda.
1 likes
Eyes: Emily '86, Dean '89, Felix '95, Gert '99, Fabian '03, Humberto '19, Paulette '20
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3950
- Age: 27
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models
shaneomac wrote:I guess Florida is out of the woods ? LOL at this point who really knows .
For now, no model shows a Florida impact but I am a bit concerned of those pronounced west shifts. Something to look out for if you’re in the Eastern Seaboard.
1 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33399
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models
If Teddy goes west of Bermuda, it escapes Paulette's cool wake too, which gives it warmer water to work with.
0 likes
- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7285
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models
plasticup wrote:Good news for Bermuda.
Not yet, need to keep an eye on this in Bermuda
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1706
- Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
- Location: Nags Head, NC
- Contact:
Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models
Interesting, Sunday GFS had Teddy heading north around 60 w. Wed 18z almost makes to 70 w.
Plus there maybe some interaction with the remnants of Sally.
Plus there maybe some interaction with the remnants of Sally.
1 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33399
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models
OuterBanker wrote:Interesting, Sunday GFS had Teddy heading north around 60 w. Wed 18z almost makes to 70 w.
Plus there maybe some interaction with the remnants of Sally.
If Teddy makes it to 70W, it would be so hard for it to not plow into southern New England.
3 likes
- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7285
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
- ColdMiser123
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 780
- Age: 27
- Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:26 pm
- Location: Northeast US
Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models
GFS continuing to make some pretty sweeping changes with the evolution of the trough to the north. Still far too progressive to see any meaningful capture with it, but this is a fluid trend still.
0 likes
B.S., M.S., Meteorology & Atmospheric Science
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests