BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM TEDDY...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 40.4W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1405 MI...2260 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 40.4 West. Teddy is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A continued
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next day or two
followed by a turn toward the northwest by mid-week.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated, and
Teddy is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected
to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South
America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020
Earlier ASCAT data indciated peak winds of 33 kt in the northwestern
quadrant of the depression. Since then, convection has increased and
so have the various satellite intensity estimates. The initial
intensity is increased to 35 kt based on the ASCAT data, and
satellite estimates of T3.5/35 kt from TAFB and 38 kt from UW-CIMSS
SATCON. This makes Tropical Storm Teddy the earliest 19th named
storm, besting the unnamed tropical storm on October 4, 2005.
The initial motion estimate is 285/12 kt. A deep-layer subtropical
ridge positioned over the central Atlantic should keep Teddy moving
west-northwestward for the next couple of days. Thereafter, the
ridge is expected to shift northward and eastward, and the
strengthening cyclone is forecast to turn northwestward around the
western periphery of the ridge. The latest NHC track guidance is
general agreement on this developing track scenario, and the new
official forecast track is similar to the previous one and lies down
the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the consensus model
tracks.
Teddy will have several days to strengthen over very warm ocean
temperatures and within a light vertical wind shear regime. The
only hindrance to intensification will be intermittent intrusions
of dry mid-level air that will briefly disrupt the inner-core
convective structure. The NHC intensity forecast remains unchanged
and brings Teddy major hurricane strength by the middle of the week.
Some of the dynamical hurricane models continue to indicate that
Teddy could strengthen faster than that, but I can't bear to make
that forecast at this time.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0900Z 13.4N 40.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 13.8N 42.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 14.3N 44.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 15.0N 46.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 15.9N 48.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 16.9N 49.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 18.3N 50.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 21.0N 53.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 23.9N 55.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020
...TEDDY POISED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 42.8W
ABOUT 1250 MI...2015 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ABOUT 1275 MI...2055 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was
located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 42.8 West. Teddy is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a westward
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slightly
slower west-northwestward motion tonight and Tuesday. A turn
toward the northwest and a further decrease in forward speed is
forecast by Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Teddy is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday night.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected
to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South
America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Brennan
Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020
A timely 1156 UTC ASCAT-A pass was very helpful in locating the
center of Teddy, which was farther south and west than previously
estimated. Satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern is
gradually becoming better organized, with the center located near
the northern edge of a curved convective band. Based on the ASCAT
data and the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB and SAB, the
intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory.
The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 270/12. Despite
the adjustment to the center position, the overall track forecast
reasoning has not changed. Teddy will be steered by a deep-layer
ridge located over the central Atlantic, which should result in a
west-northwestward motion resuming by tonight. The ridge is
forecast to shift eastward with time, and Teddy is forecast to turn
more northwestward in a couple of days around the western edge of
the ridge. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted about a
degree to the left of the previous NHC prediction, largely due to
the adjustment in the initial position, and lies near the
consensus aids and the middle of the guidance envelope.
Teddy will be moving through a favorable environment for
intensification for the next several days, with SSTs increasing
along the forecast track and shear remaining relatively low. The
new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, showing
Teddy becoming a hurricane in 36 hours and reaching major hurricane
strength in 4 to 5 days. This forecast is close to IVCN through the
first 48 hours and then trends toward the higher HCCA guidance
after that time.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 12.8N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 13.2N 44.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 13.9N 46.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 14.7N 48.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 15.7N 49.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 16.9N 51.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 18.3N 52.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 21.0N 54.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 24.0N 57.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brennan
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020
...TEDDY STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 44.0W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 44.0 West. Teddy is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwestward
motion at a slower forward speed is expected tonight through
Tuesday night, followed by a northwestward motion Wednesday and
Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast for the next
several days, and Teddy is expected to become a hurricane Tuesday
and could reach major hurricane strength on Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected
to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South
America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Brennan
Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020
Teddy is strengthening this afternoon. Recent satellite imagery
shows a growing convective band south and west of the center and a
CDO feature developing over the estimated low-level center position.
The initial intensity is set to 45 kt based on the latest Dvorak
estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB.
The environment along Teddy's forecast track features increasing
SSTs and low shear for the next several days, and with the improved
convective structure of the cyclone, steady strengthening is
forecast. The NHC intensity prediction has been increased from the
previous advisory, and shows a 25-kt increase in the next 24 hours,
which is supported by the SHIPS model and some of the RII indices.
Beyond that time, Teddy is forecast to reach major hurricane
intensity in about 3 days. The new NHC forecast is near HCCA through
the forecast period.
Microwave and geostationary satellite fixes suggest an initial
motion of 275/12. The track forecast reasoning is similar to that of
the previous advisory. Teddy will initially be steered westward
and then west-northwestward by a deep-layer ridge located over the
central Atlantic. As the ridge shifts eastward through the forecast
period, Teddy is forecast to turn more northwestward as it moves
around the western edge of the ridge. There is a fair amount of
across track spread in the guidance, with the ECMWF on the right
and the GFS and HWRF on the left. Overall the guidance envelope has
shifted to the left since this morning. The new NHC track has
been adjusted in that direction, and lies near or a little to the
right of the latest consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 13.0N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 13.6N 45.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 14.5N 47.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 15.4N 49.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 16.6N 50.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 17.9N 52.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 19.3N 53.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 22.0N 56.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 24.5N 58.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brennan