Will Sally be upgraded to a cat 3 landfall?

[DestinHurricane]

I do think the data is there to support cat 3 with a blend of Flight Level, multiple dropsondes, and radar. The damage on the ground seems indicative of cat 3 but that is debatable.

[ElectricStorm]

I do think the data is there to support cat 3 with a blend of Flight Level, multiple dropsondes, and radar. The damage on the ground seems indicative of cat 3 but that is debatable.

I will say yes. Damage wise it's debatable as a cat 2 moving at snail speed like Sally could cause cat 3 damage. But I do think the data is there for the upgrade

[Blinhart]

I say yes, that it will be upgraded to 120MPH with gusts up to 140.

[Hammy]

It's probably about 50/50--equal case could be made for 110 or 115 as there's not a whole lot of difference. I'm certain the winds were higher than 105 either way.

[CrazyC83]

I'd assess a peak intensity of 95 kt. There is limited data to support a major at landfall (the flight level winds and satellite signature), however, those are counter-balanced by radar velocities and the SFMR readings (even if those are suspect). I'd say there is some chance they could go all the way up to 100 kt (a better chance than Laura being upgraded to cat 5) but I'm not fully convinced.

I also believe the initial cat 2 period before the weakening will be decreased. The only data supporting that was a 90 kt SFMR reading that corrected itself on the next flight. Hence, had Sally not bombed out on approach, it would likely have dropped from a cat 2 peak to a cat 1 peak.

When it came to all the data, what they supported:

* FL winds: 100 kt
* SFMR: 90 kt
* Radar velocities: 95 kt
* Satellite signature: 105 kt
* Pressure relationship: 90 kt? (using 966 mb as the landfall pressure).
* Conclusion: 95 kt

[SconnieCane]

One thing I've learned over the last few years is that assessing TC intensity in real time isn't as cut-and-dried as I once thought it was, even with recon.

[Beef Stew]

Do I think in my amateur, and therefore worthless opinion that Sally broke the threshold for a category 3? Yes. Will the NHC think so? Harder to say. In my opinion, the data is there to firmly support an intensity of at least 95 kts/110 mph. The highest radar velocities that I saw were around 120 kts/137 mph at 5000 feet, which with an 80% reduction would indicate roughly 95 kts/110 mph at the surface. The 110 kt FL winds would correlate to 99 kts/115 mph at the surface with a 90% redux. SFMR was only around 90 kts consistently, however once a storm gets into shallow waters found near shore SFMR is unreliable at best. The radar presentation certainly looked to be that of a major, and some of the preliminary wind damage suggests the same, although the full extent will remain to be seen for a matter of days. Ultimately, I'd expect the best track intensity to be revised to at least 95 kts/110 mph, with a coin-flip chance for the bump to a 100 kt/115 mph C3 in the NHC's post analysis.

[NotoSans]

I'd assess a peak intensity of 95 kt. There is limited data to support a major at landfall (the flight level winds and satellite signature), however, those are counter-balanced by radar velocities and the SFMR readings (even if those are suspect). I'd say there is some chance they could go all the way up to 100 kt (a better chance than Laura being upgraded to cat 5) but I'm not fully convinced.

I also believe the initial cat 2 period before the weakening will be decreased. The only data supporting that was a 90 kt SFMR reading that corrected itself on the next flight. Hence, had Sally not bombed out on approach, it would likely have dropped from a cat 2 peak to a cat 1 peak.

When it came to all the data, what they supported:

* FL winds: 100 kt
* SFMR: 90 kt
* Radar velocities: 95 kt
* Satellite signature: 105 kt
* Pressure relationship: 90 kt? (using 966 mb as the landfall pressure).
* Conclusion: 95 kt

The original peak has already been revised to 80kt in the working best track, but further smoothing may be necessary.

[ncforecaster89]

I’m still on my way back from documenting Sally in Orange Beach, Al. Based on my own limited damage survey, there is very little structural damage that is suggestive of Cat 3 intensity. However, I did see numerous palm trees snapped in a way that does correlate to winds greater than a Cat 2.

Aside from that, Crazy has already outlined my own thoughts regarding the data points that best translate to a 95 kt Cat 2.

[CrazyC83]

I don't have the calculator to figure it out, so what would be the KZC wind estimate for a pressure of 966 mb at landfall?