ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

I'm thinking it starts out as a frontal low this weekend, ingesting lots of cool, dry air behind the front that will be accelerating down the western Gulf. It may not have much to steer it for 5-6 days. Levi has a good video up discussing the possibilities. If it is to become a hurricane, it is going to have to be out in the Gulf for quite a while, until all the dry air is mixed out. My thinking would be landfall in NE Mexico or south TX next Tue-Thu. Oh, and getting the forecast correct wins you no money, it can only cost you if you're wrong.

[us89]

I'm thinking it starts out as a frontal low this weekend, ingesting lots of cool, dry air behind the front that will be accelerating down the western Gulf. It may not have much to steer it for 5-6 days. Levi has a good video up discussing the possibilities. If it is to become a hurricane, it is going to have to be out in the Gulf for quite a while, until all the dry air is mixed out. My thinking would be landfall in NE Mexico or south TX next Tue-Thu. Oh, and getting the forecast correct wins you no money, it can only cost you if you're wrong.

But this is the only profession where you can be wrong and not lose your job!!!

[toad strangler]

I'm thinking it starts out as a frontal low this weekend, ingesting lots of cool, dry air behind the front that will be accelerating down the western Gulf. It may not have much to steer it for 5-6 days. Levi has a good video up discussing the possibilities. If it is to become a hurricane, it is going to have to be out in the Gulf for quite a while, until all the dry air is mixed out. My thinking would be landfall in NE Mexico or south TX next Tue-Thu. Oh, and getting the forecast correct wins you no money, it can only cost you if you're wrong.

The last part of this post is true no matter what one does in life. Good luck on your forecast. It's an unorthodox set up so I imagine confidence will be low for awhile.

[Shawee]

Models may be having trouble with all the cool, dry air flowing down the western Gulf along the coast of Mexico this weekend. Such flow naturally forms a wave on any cold front. Most models, at least initially, have the low as frontal. Some detach it from the front and drive it west to Texas next Wed-Thu-Fri. I'd much prefer that they are all wrong and nothing but a frontal wave develops. Who wants to come up with a 7-day forecast for me to issue to hundreds of clients tomorrow? Millions of dollars will depend on what is forecast. So much for any time off post-Sally.

Why would you plan for time off August through October in this business? That's like Santa taking December off. Or an accountant taking March and April off.

A person can dream!

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm thinking it starts out as a frontal low this weekend, ingesting lots of cool, dry air behind the front that will be accelerating down the western Gulf. It may not have much to steer it for 5-6 days. Levi has a good video up discussing the possibilities. If it is to become a hurricane, it is going to have to be out in the Gulf for quite a while, until all the dry air is mixed out. My thinking would be landfall in NE Mexico or south TX next Tue-Thu. Oh, and getting the forecast correct wins you no money, it can only cost you if you're wrong.

But this is the only profession where you can be wrong and not lose your job!!!

Haha, that has to be the meteorology equivalent of being a cashier and having a customer say “ohp, it didn’t scan, so it must be free!”

[RL3AO]

Models may be having trouble with all the cool, dry air flowing down the western Gulf along the coast of Mexico this weekend. Such flow naturally forms a wave on any cold front. Most models, at least initially, have the low as frontal. Some detach it from the front and drive it west to Texas next Wed-Thu-Fri. I'd much prefer that they are all wrong and nothing but a frontal wave develops. Who wants to come up with a 7-day forecast for me to issue to hundreds of clients tomorrow? Millions of dollars will depend on what is forecast. So much for any time off post-Sally.

Why would you plan for time off August through October in this business? That's like Santa taking December off. Or an accountant taking March and April off.

A person can dream!

A tropical meteorologist can take September off. They just need to move to Australia.

[Blinhart]

Models may be having trouble with all the cool, dry air flowing down the western Gulf along the coast of Mexico this weekend. Such flow naturally forms a wave on any cold front. Most models, at least initially, have the low as frontal. Some detach it from the front and drive it west to Texas next Wed-Thu-Fri. I'd much prefer that they are all wrong and nothing but a frontal wave develops. Who wants to come up with a 7-day forecast for me to issue to hundreds of clients tomorrow? Millions of dollars will depend on what is forecast. So much for any time off post-Sally.

Ok, if I get it correct do I get a share??? Of course I'm just kidding. This is my thinking of this system is that it will take about 36 hours for it to get fully organized and be declared a TD or skip that and be a TS about a 75-100 miles East of where the weak LLC is currently, then will slowly move north towards New Orleans at around 8-10 mph before slowing down after 36 to 48 hours after formation. After this which is about about 80 hours from now, it will be a Cat 2 Hurricane about 150-200 miles due South of New Orleans and will turn NorthEast towards Vermillion Bay and slowly crawl up to the coast continuously strengthening to either a strong Cat 4 or Cat 5 at landfall. I really do hate saying this but this is what I'm feeling will be happening.

If it’s south of New Orl and goes ne isn’t that towards fl lol

I made a mistake while typing, I meant NW. I edited it.

[SoupBone]

I'm thinking it starts out as a frontal low this weekend, ingesting lots of cool, dry air behind the front that will be accelerating down the western Gulf. It may not have much to steer it for 5-6 days. Levi has a good video up discussing the possibilities. If it is to become a hurricane, it is going to have to be out in the Gulf for quite a while, until all the dry air is mixed out. My thinking would be landfall in NE Mexico or south TX next Tue-Thu. Oh, and getting the forecast correct wins you no money, it can only cost you if you're wrong.

But this is the only profession where you can be wrong and not lose your job!!!

Sarcasm? Because we all know this is very wrong.

wxman, I hope that "forecast" is correct, and it's a very sparsely populated area.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Would this be moving into non populated areas of Mexico? I hope?

The NE coast of Mexico is sparsely populated. The biggest cities in this region are located near the border with US, 22 miles from the coast

Models are showing landfall near Playa Badgad, which population consists of a few dozen people.

Hi y'all, first time posting here. Anyways, wouldn't a landfall near Playa Bagdad be a worst case scenario landfall for Brownsville, SPI and the rest of the RGV if 90L intensifies into a hurricane (Between Playa Bagdad and the mouth of the Rio Grande).

[bob rulz]

That would be a pretty rare landfall location for this late in the year, no?

[Blinhart]

I really do hope it stays down there and never really strengthens, just don't see it happening right now.

[Nimbus]

I'd agree with the dry shear infusion but if that isn't enough to kill the circulation this area might get dragged east and the dry shear might only be a deterent for a few days in that scenario. They are thinking like the model that brings it in as a sheared mess west of Louisiana in the short run, or landfall east of Louisiana later and stronger.

That is as much as can be analyzed now.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

That would be a pretty rare landfall location for this late in the year, no?

Typically, yes. Most storms that hit around that location are usually a July/August affair. However, this is 2020, so anything goes at this point.

With that being said, 3 of the 4 worst storms to hit or get close to the Brownsville/RGV area have occurred in September (1933 Cuba-Brownsville, 1967 Beulah, and close call with Gilbert in 1988). These are also some of the most notable storms in history, but y'all already knew that.

[Hammy]

A bit old of an example, but could a Josephine 1996 type setup come out of this, where you have a low stall for a few days, develop into a tropical system, and then head towards the coast as a hybrid sort?

[us89]

But this is the only profession where you can be wrong and not lose your job!!!

Sarcasm? Because we all know this is very wrong.

Yes. Hence the multiple exclamation marks and the eye roll smiley.

[Craters]

I’m thinking something like Alex 2010 could be very possible out of this. Hopefully it stays weak!

Now, there's something. The 6,748th Atlantic storm of 2020 being compared to the first one of 2010! Who'da thunk it?

[Craters]

This season has really been crazy 2020 is an unbelievable year. I remember when the Gulf went over a decade without a major hurricane landfall 2005-2017.

I have to say, though, that there are a few million people who were under the heel of Ike (for what seemed like an eternity) who might disagree with the "major landfall" part of that...

[Extratropical94]

70/90

Thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure system located
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has increased in coverage and
organization this morning. In addition, recent satellite-derived
surface wind data indicate that the low has become better defined.
Upper-level winds are expected to gradually become more conducive
for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the next day or so while the low meanders over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the disturbance later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Craters]

High-helicity towers going up.
Didn't I just say this yesterday?

GCANE, every time you start saying stuff like this, nasty things invariably start to happen. Who are you really?...

[ClarCari]

sighhhh...slow, meandering, and almost surely another pain in the @$$ to track.