ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
This Teddy bear is growing up to be a Grizzly right before our eyes
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
Y'all acting like he already isn't a high end category 4
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
Only a cat 2 now according to NHC, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's already a high end cat 3 or low end cat 4 if they would sample it now. When is recon supposed to be there?
Last edited by kevin on Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
kevin wrote:Only a cat 2 now according to NHC, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's already a high end cat 3 or low end cat 4 if they would sample it now. When is recon supposed to be there?
This afternoon.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
SconnieCane wrote:NHC seems pretty set on the recurve scenario, showing it losing longitude at the 120HR point as it nears 40N. Are they discounting the model solutions that show it getting captured and yanked west in a case of "I don't even wanna go there"?
It seems like a fairly low probability outcome and it's a week + away, so maybe they wanna see more evidence/consistency in that possibility before they start generating concern.
Teddy is looking back at you with his pinhole eye on the IR now lol. He looks a little stronger to me than Sally did at landfall, so maybe he is a major now.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
Wow, this thread went from "it probably won't even be a major" to "it's gonna be a C4-C5" real quick.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
Personal Dvorak analysis is T6.0/6.0 (corresponding to 115kt), but convection is a bit asymmetric (probably due to slight VWS) and latest microwave shows eyewall is still slightly open to the southwest.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
A beast.
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I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
I'd love to know how quickly the pressure is dropping during the last few hours. That looks like a soon-to-be 130 knot hurricane to me.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
BYG Jacob wrote:Y'all acting like he already isn't a high end category 4
I mean, it's definitely not.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
plasticup wrote:BYG Jacob wrote:Y'all acting like he already isn't a high end category 4
I mean, it's definitely not.
What kind of hurricane has deep convection like that wrapping around that isn't a category 4?
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
BYG Jacob wrote:plasticup wrote:BYG Jacob wrote:Y'all acting like he already isn't a high end category 4
I mean, it's definitely not.
What kind of hurricane has deep convection like that wrapping around that isn't a category 4?
It probably will be this afternoon. A signature of cat four and especially high end cat 4 is that they have a perfectly spherical eye. Teddy looks a lot more like a high-end 2 or low-end 3 right now based on the eye.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
We are going to see how strong Teddy is this afternoon when AF plane will go. It will be a facinating mission to say the least.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
RL3AO wrote:BYG Jacob wrote:plasticup wrote:
I mean, it's definitely not.
What kind of hurricane has deep convection like that wrapping around that isn't a category 4?
It probably will be this afternoon. A signature of cat four and especially high end cat 4 is that they have a perfectly spherical eye. Teddy looks a lot more like a high-end 2 or low-end 3 right now based on the eye.
Looks like a category 4 clearing out its eye to me.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
Big, bad Teddy imo is definitely a major now and should be Cat 4 when Recon reports this afternoon.
A very impressive tropical cyclone, and imo, has a chance to rival Lorenzo if he keeps organizng in this manner.
A very impressive tropical cyclone, and imo, has a chance to rival Lorenzo if he keeps organizng in this manner.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
BYG Jacob wrote:plasticup wrote:BYG Jacob wrote:Y'all acting like he already isn't a high end category 4
I mean, it's definitely not.
What kind of hurricane has deep convection like that wrapping around that isn't a category 4?
Professional Dvorak estimate is 5.5 which corresponds to a category 3. High end cat 4 would be Dvorak 6.5 which requires a clear eye for starters. Beven made this great guide
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:We are going to see how strong Teddy is this afternoon when AF plane will go. It will be a facinating mission to say the least.
This is the most excited I’ve been for a recon mission since Laura. Is it leaving at 14z or 18z?
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
TXNT21 KNES 171200
TCSNTL
A. 20L (TEDDY)
B. 17/1130Z
C. 19.0N
D. 52.7W
E. ONE/GOES-E
F. T5.5/5.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...A WMG EYE THAT IS SURROUNDED BY B AND EMBEDDED IN DG MAKES
THE DT EQUAL TO 5.5 AFTER AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +1.0 TO THE DT. THE MET
AND PT AGREE AND ARE ALSO EQUAL TO 5.5 BASED ON DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SAMBUCCI
TCSNTL
A. 20L (TEDDY)
B. 17/1130Z
C. 19.0N
D. 52.7W
E. ONE/GOES-E
F. T5.5/5.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...A WMG EYE THAT IS SURROUNDED BY B AND EMBEDDED IN DG MAKES
THE DT EQUAL TO 5.5 AFTER AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +1.0 TO THE DT. THE MET
AND PT AGREE AND ARE ALSO EQUAL TO 5.5 BASED ON DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SAMBUCCI
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