ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

[bohai]

This season has really been crazy 2020 is an unbelievable year. I remember when the Gulf went over a decade without a major hurricane landfall 2005-2017.

I have to say, though, that there are a few million people who were under the heel of Ike (for what seemed like an eternity) who might disagree with the "major landfall" part of that...

We lived in Spring (northern suburb of Houston) when Ike hit. We had been in our brand new house for 3 weeks. Took two trees to the roof and we were on the western side of storm. No electricity for 14 days and 13 hrs. Luckily we had installed a whole house generator so at least we had AC. So yes Ike wasn't a major but was a huge storm, and almost wiped every structure from the Bolivar peninsula.

[3090]

90L/Wilfred will likely be meandering in the Western GOM for several days to come as it will be pinned down and blocked by a strong 1037 mb HP building down the U.S. Eastern Seaboard into early next week.

The frontal boundary will get hung up along the deep south gulf coast I have heard and will be a weakness for 90L to follow along.

[northjaxpro]

90L/Wilfred will likely be meandering in the Western GOM for several days to come as it will be pinned down and blocked by a strong 1037 mb HP building down the U.S. Eastern Seaboard into early next week.

The frontal boundary will get hung up along the deep south gulf coast I have heard and will be a weakness for 90L to follow along.

The ridging across the Eastern U.S. at both the surface and upper levels (500 mb) should effectively block soon to be Wilfred., at least up until Tuesday. He will be meandering down there for quite awhile.

[Stormcenter]

This is going to be another very complicated track.

[3090]

90L/Wilfred will likely be meandering in the Western GOM for several days to come as it will be pinned down and blocked by a strong 1037 mb HP building down the U.S. Eastern Seaboard into early next week.

The frontal boundary will get hung up along the deep south gulf coast I have heard and will be a weakness for 90L to follow along.

The ridging across the Eastern U.S. at both the surface and upper levels (500 mb) should effectively block soon to be Wilfred., at least up until Tuesday. He will be meandering down there for quite awhile.

That is what I have been reading. Looks like maybe a dreary overcast pattern along the deep southern gulf coast areas.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

90L/Wilfred will likely be meandering in the Western GOM for several days to come as it will be pinned down and blocked by a strong 1037 mb HP building down the U.S. Eastern Seaboard into early next week.

The frontal boundary will get hung up along the deep south gulf coast I have heard and will be a weakness for 90L to follow along.

The ridging across the Eastern U.S. at both the surface and upper levels (500 mb) should effectively block soon to be Wilfred., at least up until Tuesday. He will be meandering down there for quite awhile.

I'm confused. If there is a strong ridge across the Eastern US and a weak frontal boundary approaching it, wouldn't that make the ridge lift the frontal boundary over itself or would that push the ridge out of the way? Also, if the frontal boundary gets lifted over the ridge, wouldn't that cause for a track between maybe Vermilion Bay & Matagorda Bay?

[tailgater]

Looks like the Euro wants to give the hold Texas coast a good dousing of rain, some way too much.

[MGC]

This is going to be another very complicated track.

Sure will....be interesting to see what track the NHC puts out.....MGC

[Steve]

The frontal boundary will get hung up along the deep south gulf coast I have heard and will be a weakness for 90L to follow along.

The ridging across the Eastern U.S. at both the surface and upper levels (500 mb) should effectively block soon to be Wilfred., at least up until Tuesday. He will be meandering down there for quite awhile.

I'm confused. If there is a strong ridge across the Eastern US and a weak frontal boundary approaching it, wouldn't that make the ridge lift the frontal boundary over itself or would that push the ridge out of the way? Also, if the frontal boundary gets lifted over the ridge, wouldn't that cause for a track between maybe Vermilion Bay & Matagorda Bay?

The front is ahead of the ridge. 3090 said the system would find a weakness as it butted up against it and head out. I don't think that's going to happen at least for this wave. GFS has changed its tune completely and is kind of A Day After Tomorrow run where it takes the first low, brings it up, and moves it toward Texas. A new low forms at the tail end of the front in SWLA and another forms in the Bay of Campeche which looks to become a TD/TS and spins around down in the Bay. Normally I'd say I'm not buying it, but ICON keeps the original low and has it moving NE at 983mb heading toward LA in 7 1/2 days. So it's possible there's just a lot of noise that needs to reconcile.

[Stormcenter]

Another long week ahead if you’re into tracking
storms.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Pretty sure recon is going to find a classifiable system when they get there.

[Blinhart]

Pretty sure recon is going to find a classifiable system when they get there.

I don't know if it will be a TD or TS, but I agree this is a classified system.

[xironman]

Looks about 22n 95.5w

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Looks about 22n 95.5w

https://i.imgur.com/BDa0wyM.gif

Looks like a cyclone

[cycloneye]

Shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little today in
association with an area low pressure system located over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are gradually
becoming more conducive for development, and a tropical depression
or a tropical storm could form within the next day or so. The low
is expected to meander over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through
tonight before moving slowly northward to northeastward on Friday
and Saturday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. For more
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[3090]

The ridging across the Eastern U.S. at both the surface and upper levels (500 mb) should effectively block soon to be Wilfred., at least up until Tuesday. He will be meandering down there for quite awhile.

I'm confused. If there is a strong ridge across the Eastern US and a weak frontal boundary approaching it, wouldn't that make the ridge lift the frontal boundary over itself or would that push the ridge out of the way? Also, if the frontal boundary gets lifted over the ridge, wouldn't that cause for a track between maybe Vermilion Bay & Matagorda Bay?

The front is ahead of the ridge. 3090 said the system would find a weakness as it butted up against it and head out. I don't think that's going to happen at least for this wave. GFS has changed its tune completely and is kind of A Day After Tomorrow run where it takes the first low, brings it up, and moves it toward Texas. A new low forms at the tail end of the front in SWLA and another forms in the Bay of Campeche which looks to become a TD/TS and spins around down in the Bay. Normally I'd say I'm not buying it, but ICON keeps the original low and has it moving NE at 983mb heading toward LA in 7 1/2 days. So it's possible there's just a lot of noise that needs to reconcile.

Here is the issue with the GFS. Plain and simple. It is confused.

“GFS has the parent low lifting north, then turning left, weakening and finding its way into Texas BUT there is more, it leaves more convection over the western Gulf so a new storm is forming off LA Coast while another storm is coming out of the BOC. Safe to say the GFS is struggling with all of these convective feedback problems so it wants to turn every blob into a storm“.

Now back to the normal, very clear and understandable future track of Wilfred.

[lrak]

Looks about 22n 95.5w

https://i.imgur.com/BDa0wyM.gif

looks that way to me also....I feel confident as well they will find a depression or storm. Probably a storm.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

This will probably be a PTC at 5pm

[HurricaneAndre2008]

TXNT24 KNES 171751
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90L)

B. 17/1731Z

C. 22.8N

D. 94.7W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING WAS OBSERVED AROUND THE LLCC WHICH MAKES
THE DT EQUAL TO 1.5. THE MET IS ALSO EQUAL TO 1.5. THE PT IS EQUAL TO
2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO CLOUD FEATURES THAT ARE NOT CLEAR CUT
AROUND THE LLCC.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SAMBUCCI

[captainbarbossa19]

This will probably be a PTC at 5pm

Isn't that if a storm is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to land within 48 hours? I am not sure this system is going to do that anywhere that soon.