MED: 01M/IANOS (UDINE) - ex-Hurricane

[supercane4867]

Organization has improved through today. It's probably near or at hurricane intensity now.

[us89]

Does CIMSS do Dvorak intensity estimates on Mediterranean tropical cyclones?

[mrbagyo]

There's quite a few ships nearby.
Oil Chemical Tanker FT Nervi @ 37.64502°N, 19.736°E
Bulk Carrier Theresa Jiangshu @ 37.8515°N, 19.63098°E

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

Too sad that ASCAT-A measurement is deficient (only that part of the Mediterranean) and the B, C passes missed the storm...

[Aric Dunn]

I would say we have a deepening Hurricane.

[DanieleItalyRm]

An user reply. Is right for you? :-/
"Latest HRV Imagery shows the wrap around to the "Classic Medicane Structure" which of course is not the same as a typical tropical cyclone as that would first develop a dense CDO feature and then a microwave eye and then on conventional imagery,"..

[doomhaMwx]

Bad weather will prevail in central and southern Greece from the
afternoon of Thursday (17-09-2020) which will start from the
southwest, with the main characteristics of heavy rains and
storms and very stormy winds.

[supercane4867]

An user reply. Is right for you? :-/
"Latest HRV Imagery shows the wrap around to the "Classic Medicane Structure" which of course is not the same as a typical tropical cyclone as that would first develop a dense CDO feature and then a microwave eye and then on conventional imagery,"..

If this is not a tropical cyclone, I honestly don't know what it is. It had a nice CDO yesterday and it has been looking more tropical than Vince or Alex in the open Atlantic.

[Beef Stew]

When we said we thought we'd go greek this year, we didn't mean this...

Sure has a classic look. While these systems aren't frequent and it would be a logistical nightmare, it's times like these that I wish there was a way for recon to check these 'medicanes' out.

[mrbagyo]

Meteosat-11


Meteosat-8

[tomatkins]

When we said we thought we'd go greek this year, we didn't mean this...

Sure has a classic look. While these systems aren't frequent and it would be a logistical nightmare, it's times like these that I wish there was a way for recon to check these 'medicanes' out.

They should have just named this Alpha to confuse the situation more.

[supercane4867]

Very impressive convection activity. I think the current intensity is at least 70kts

[Aric Dunn]

Very impressive convection activity. I think the current intensity is at least 70kts

https://imgur.com/huF8TNQ

This is certainly a full warm core TC. and at least 65 to 70kts.

and looks like it wants to start deepening a little faster shortly..

[KWT]

An user reply. Is right for you? :-/
"Latest HRV Imagery shows the wrap around to the "Classic Medicane Structure" which of course is not the same as a typical tropical cyclone as that would first develop a dense CDO feature and then a microwave eye and then on conventional imagery,"..

Maybe in the deep tropics but more storms north of 35N tend to form like this one than say a MDR type system with a proto eye forming then a small area of deep convection in the eyewall surrounding and feeding around the eye. That tends to be more often seen in systems with cold pools aloft that form a shallower warm core.

If this isn't a tropical storm, then we could probably knock off 3-5 storms off the north Atlantic total every single season...

I suspect something in the 65kts region is right, and thus it should be called what it clearly is...a HURRICANE...

[gfsperpendicular]

Well that latest S2kHC advisory has this at 65 kts so I think the thread title should be changed...

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

An user reply. Is right for you? :-/
"Latest HRV Imagery shows the wrap around to the "Classic Medicane Structure" which of course is not the same as a typical tropical cyclone as that would first develop a dense CDO feature and then a microwave eye and then on conventional imagery,"..

'Curved band pattern' development like this is absolutely normal at the tropical cyclones. It is true, that mostly occure when a tropical cyclone transforming from an extratropical or subtropical low which already have higher vorticity, but sometime cyclones over the deep tropics developing in this way too. The sematical figure of Dvorak pattern also included this way of development: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8d/Dvorak1984DevelopmentalPatterns.png/440px-Dvorak1984DevelopmentalPatterns.png

[doomhaMwx]

This is the first time I've seen WMO mention a medicane. As others have mentioned already in this thread, it's high time they assign an official agency / RSMC to monitor these systems.

 https://twitter.com/WMO/status/1306565612064452610

[Hypercane_Kyle]

No obvious frontal attachment, deep eyewall convection around a banding eye, relatively warm waters.

Really wish they'd call it what it is: a Category 1 hurricane. I guess it doesn't make much of a difference, ultimately.

[KWT]

This is the first time I've seen WMO mention a medicane. As others have mentioned already in this thread, it's high time they assign an official agency / RSMC to monitor these systems.

IMO, politics and tourism concerns have always ensured that this has never been officially noted as a basin. Most of those S.European countries that can get impacted rely real heavily on tourism. Anything that impact that (such as becoming a region that can get hit by hurricane offically) is probably going to get waived away IMO. Perhaps I'm just being cynical.

[us89]

This is the first time I've seen WMO mention a medicane. As others have mentioned already in this thread, it's high time they assign an official agency / RSMC to monitor these systems.

IMO, politics and tourism concerns have always ensured that this has never been officially noted as a basin. Most of those S.European countries that can get impacted rely real heavily on tourism. Anything that impact that (such as becoming a region that can get hit by hurricane offically) is probably going to get waived away IMO. Perhaps I'm just being cynical.

I agree, but I think it's silly - it's not like Florida gets any less tourists because they get hit by hurricanes every so often.

This is on the stronger end of what's possible in the Med, but (sub)tropical storms aren't incredibly rare in this area either. Depending on how strong this ultimately gets, it might be the Med equivalent of the South Atlantic's Hurricane Catarina to get this basin a little bit more recognition. At this point the WMO needs to just designate the SAtl and Med as official basins - there's plenty of documentation for subtropical and occasional fully tropical cyclones in both.