ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#441 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:29 am

I bet there's a good chance for a special advisory in a few hours
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#442 Postby DestinHurricane » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:29 am

Could teddy briefly attain cat 5 status?
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#443 Postby dukeblue219 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:30 am

First pass - 950.2 extrapolated. 84kt on the SFMR.
Last edited by dukeblue219 on Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#444 Postby plasticup » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:30 am

I'm going to need more plywood.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#445 Postby NotoSans » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:30 am

Extrapolated pressure of 950.2mb so a few mbs lower than NHC's estimate. Need to wait for NE pass to ascertain winds.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#446 Postby RL3AO » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:31 am

DestinHurricane wrote:Could teddy briefly attain cat 5 status?


I wouldn't say it's impossible, but it probably has enough shear to keep it around a 130kt max peak IMO.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#447 Postby plasticup » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:31 am

dukeblue219 wrote:First pass - 950.2 extrapolated.


7 mbar lower than NHC estimate! Hot damn!
Last edited by plasticup on Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#448 Postby wx98 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:31 am

So we are having two low level missions. NOAA plane in there now and AF on the way.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#449 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:32 am

EXTRAP usually always runs a little lower than reality. I would guess Teddy is 953-954mb right now.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#450 Postby dukeblue219 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:33 am

HurricaneEnzo wrote:EXTRAP usually always runs a little lower than reality. I would guess Teddy is 953-954mb right now.

It's actually pretty impressive how close NHC was just from looking at it from space...
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#451 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:33 am

Here is the first pass thru eye from NOAA plane.

Image
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#452 Postby plasticup » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:33 am

What effect will a stronger Teddy have on the forecast track? More east or more west?
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#453 Postby plasticup » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:34 am

dukeblue219 wrote:
HurricaneEnzo wrote:EXTRAP usually always runs a little lower than reality. I would guess Teddy is 953-954mb right now.

It's actually pretty impressive how close NHC was just from looking at it from space...


I guess those lads are pretty good at their jobs! :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#454 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:36 am

If the SW quadrant has 85-90 kt winds, then the NE could be close or at Cat 4 winds.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#455 Postby NotoSans » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:40 am

Flight-level at 125kt but SFMR is surprisingly low at 92kt. Note that the plane is flying at non-standard 750mb so conversion factor would be slightly lower than 0.9. A blend of these data supports 100-105kt.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#456 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:41 am

Overall, I think the current intensity is on track for now.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#457 Postby wx98 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:42 am

Looks like the NHC was right on the money. With pressure still in the 950s, that generally doesn’t support a Cat 4. I’m sure it will be one soon however.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#458 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:42 am

Looks like the NHC nailed it.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#459 Postby RL3AO » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:43 am

Weather Dude wrote:Looks like the NHC nailed it.


They're almost too good at times.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#460 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:43 am

It just need a little more time for winds at surface to catch up.
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