ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
Jeez that NE quadrant — 60 mm/hr rain rate, 125 kt FL, 95 kt SFMR.
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Kazmit
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
Looks like it's a borderline cat 4.
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I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
Eye sonde is 952mb/9kt which supports central pressure of 951mb. Looks more like a WPAC wind-pressure relationship.
Last edited by NotoSans on Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
Can't wait for the eye to fully clear out.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
Recon showing a pretty large windfield along with a fairly large eye. It's probably not surprising that 950mb is only producing 105kt.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
Note SATCON is 111kt/950mb and AMSU is 103kt/952mb so another win for remote sensing techniques.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
Eyewall dropsonde found surface winds of 113/114 kt. Is this enough for a Cat 4 upgrade, or will the NHC wait to see what the second NOAA plane pass or first AF pass reveals?
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Kazmit
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
Large hurricane-force wind field.
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
aspen wrote:Eyewall dropsonde found surface winds of 113/114 kt. Is this enough for a Cat 4 upgrade, or will the NHC wait to see what the second NOAA plane pass or first AF pass reveals?
If not now, then probably soon. Given the steady rate of improvement I assume the winds are in the process of catching up to the pressure
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CyclonicFury
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
aspen wrote:Eyewall dropsonde found surface winds of 113/114 kt. Is this enough for a Cat 4 upgrade, or will the NHC wait to see what the second NOAA plane pass or first AF pass reveals?
Probably not. Dropsondes are more representative of gusts than sustained winds.
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CrazyC83
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
Also dropsondes may not necessarily reach the absolute bottom winds and may show it just aloft.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
Probably seeing our next convective burst in the N eyewall.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
Surface splash from dropsonde is more representative of gusts but using the lowest 150m average yields a surface wind estimate of ~104kt.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
That's some wind radius, plane has been going NE from the eye for 30 minutes and still picking up hurricane force flight level winds
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
AF plane decends to make it's first pass.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
Hopefully there is not a boat out there but the AF plane is doing circles.
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Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
The thing I’m seeing is that this is still having some trouble mixing out dry air on the eastern side, of it does this could become a high end cat 4 maybe even a 5 if that happens but right now I see the peak at 140mph
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion
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