ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

Extrap pressure is lower than last extrap pressure

Barely...

Last extrap pressure was 953 so

Last extrap was about 950, like this one.

[us89]

121 kt FL winds in the southeast quadrant. SFMR still lagging well behind at 76 kt.

[aspen]

There have been Cat 4 FL winds recorded in all but the SW quadrant. Those should be mixing down in the next few hours.

[plasticup]

he's a big boy no doubt

He’s earned his nickname of Titanic Teddy.

Gonna be terrible Teddy if the models keep moving W

Models have been moving east in the last 24 hours.

[aspen]

948.4 mbar extrapolated from the AF plane.

[cycloneye]

948.4

[plasticup]

I bet we'll see a Special Advisory after this AF pass through the NE quadrant.

[Highteeld]

Latest dropsonde reveals 86 knots 1 mb above surface, yet 139 knots at 891 mb. Winds not mixing down.

[us89]

Latest dropsonde reveals 86 knots 1 mb above surface, yet 139 knots at 891 mb. Winds not mixing down.

Getting pretty close though. 114 kt winds just 10 mb (probably 100 m or so) above the surface.

[NotoSans]

123kt reported at 700mb which corresponds to 111kt using standard conversion factor. SFMR is lower at 101kt. So the storm should have slightly intensified but keeping the intensity at 105kt is also justifiable. Not a category 4 yet though.

[Ubuntwo]

Latest dropsonde reveals 86 knots 1 mb above surface, yet 139 knots at 891 mb. Winds not mixing down.

The NE eyewall drop had 113kt at surface though.

[cheezyWXguy]

Latest dropsonde reveals 86 knots 1 mb above surface, yet 139 knots at 891 mb. Winds not mixing down.

The NE eyewall drop had 113kt at surface though.

Dropsonde wind measurements are instantaneous, so it could have been a gust. Not sufficient on its own for an upgrade

[aspen]

~125 kt FL and ~100 kt SFMR from the AF plane’s first pass. Averaged out, that’s 110-115 kt.

I think these last several passes support 948-950 mbar and 110 kt, a high-end Cat 3 on the verge of becoming a Cat 4 once those FL winds mix down (I’m not sure why they haven’t yet, maybe they need some new convective bursts to do so).

[Do_For_Love]

He’s earned his nickname of Titanic Teddy.

Gonna be terrible Teddy if the models keep moving W

Models have been moving east in the last 24 hours.

Not from what I've seen in the models thread - it seems like the GFS has been trending towards to Euro which had a western solution near the US canada border. I'm not an expert on these things by any means, but that seems like reason for increased concern IMO

[cheezyWXguy]

~125 kt FL and ~100 kt SFMR from the AF plane’s first pass. Averaged out, that’s 110-115 kt.

I think these last several passes support 948-950 mbar and 110 kt, a high-end Cat 3 on the verge of becoming a Cat 4 once those FL winds mix down (I’m not sure why they haven’t yet, maybe they need some new convective bursts to do so).

If I had to speculate, I would say it’s probably due to the periodic dry air intrusions. However, the most recent frame on satellite show the core fully walled off with a new tower on the nw side. I think cat4 in the next hour or two is very possible

[Ubuntwo]

Latest dropsonde reveals 86 knots 1 mb above surface, yet 139 knots at 891 mb. Winds not mixing down.

The NE eyewall drop had 113kt at surface though.

Dropsonde wind measurements are instantaneous, so it could have been a gust. Not sufficient on its own for an upgrade

I am well aware, just saying that indicates sufficient mixing in at least part of the storm. (122kt average in the boundary layer reduces to about 104kt)

[CrazyC83]

Most recent data is probably enough for an intensity estimate of 110 kt.

[aspen]

127 kt FL and 105 kt SFMR from that pass in the N quadrant suggests some of the higher winds are starting to mix down better. Averaged out, it supports 115 kt.

[plasticup]

Gonna be terrible Teddy if the models keep moving W

Models have been moving east in the last 24 hours.

Not from what I've seen in the models thread - it seems like the GFS has been trending towards to Euro which had a western solution near the US canada border. I'm not an expert on these things by any means, but that seems like reason for increased concern IMO

Oh, who cares about the 7 day range. GIGO at that range. I am talking about the 4 days Bermuda impacts, which are looking less and less every run as the models trend east.

[CrazyC83]

127 kt FL and 105 kt SFMR from that pass in the N quadrant suggests some of the higher winds are starting to mix down better. Averaged out, it supports 115 kt.

127 kt FL at the surface at that elevation is about 110 kt at the surface.