ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

110kt from Best Track:

20L TEDDY 200917 1800 19.7N 53.7W ATL 110 951

[aspen]

NOAA plane seems to be heading out, AF plane has dropped to 1586 gpm and could be getting ready for a lower-level pass.

[RL3AO]

NOAA plane seems to be heading out, AF plane has dropped to 1586 gpm and could be getting ready for a lower-level pass.

Nah. They won't enter a major cane at 850 mb.

[Nimbus]

So the 12Z HWRF, GFS, and HMON all have Teddy missing Bermuda to the east but Atlantic Canada might still be in the cone?

[northjaxpro]

So the 12Z HWRF, GFS, and HMON all have Teddy missing Bermuda to the east but Atlantic Canada might still be in the cone?

UKMET also has Teddy impacting Nova Scotia by Tuesday.

[aspen]

Dmax should be very interesting. That bit of a convective boost might be enough to get Teddy to 120-125 kt. Pressure-wise, it could rival Laura for the strongest storm of the season so far.

[supercane4867]

Another secondary eyewall is probably beginning to take shape, but still too early for an ERC

[aspen]

The AF plane is getting ready for another pass. Since it’s been a while after the last readings from the center, they could find Teddy slightly stronger, maybe worthy of Cat 4.

[CrazyC83]

NOAA plane seems to be heading out, AF plane has dropped to 1586 gpm and could be getting ready for a lower-level pass.

Nah. They won't enter a major cane at 850 mb.

Usually that level is for tropical storms and sometimes low-end hurricanes. Anything suspected to be higher than a category 1 calls for a flight at 10,000 feet.

[cheezyWXguy]

Another secondary eyewall is probably beginning to take shape, but still too early for an ERC

https://i.imgur.com/V1JTXSp.jpg

Probably will take hold in another 24 hours or so, in my opinion. Concentric eyewalls have been intermittent in this storm's structure since it achieved hurricane status so I agree it will take a while.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1306678191105421314

[Ubuntwo]

Another secondary eyewall is probably beginning to take shape, but still too early for an ERC

https://i.imgur.com/V1JTXSp.jpg

Probably will take hold in another 24 hours or so, in my opinion. Concentric eyewalls have been intermittent in this storm's structure since it achieved hurricane status so I agree it will take a while.

The dry environment has broken up any outer rainbands that have tried to wrap, so I imagine an ERC is still a ways away.

[cheezyWXguy]

Cloud tops have cooled considerably in the last few frames and the eye was warmed and become more round. If they don’t find cat4 winds in the next NE pass, I will be very surprised

[MarioProtVI]

Getting serious Lorenzo flashbacks from Teddy rn, especially that IR.

[supercane4867]

CAT5 is not out of reach.

[Blinhart]

CAT5 is not out of reach.

https://i.imgur.com/UMVuNRL.jpg

Looks like he is going to have a very large stadium eye.

[NotoSans]

According to recon plan, the current AF will leave after completing this NW-SE pass, but there’ll be another NOAA research plane departing at 2100Z.

[MarioProtVI]

130 kt FL, 124 kt SFMR. Making a run for Cat 5.

Edit: was flagged but there is several C4 SFMRs that support 115 kt.

[CrazyC83]

That data suggests 120 kt for the intensity.

[NotoSans]

130kt winds at 700mb and SFMR up to 124kt (but flagged). A blend of these data yields 120kt. Extrap pressure down to 946mb.