ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#561 Postby wx98 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:53 pm

There’s your Category 4...
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#562 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:56 pm

wx98 wrote:There’s your Category 4...


That last Recon pass just may have indicated this.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#563 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:58 pm

Almost certainly a Cat 4 based on that last pass. Multiple Cat 4 SFMRs, highest uncontaminated was 114 knots.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#564 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:58 pm

5 PM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#565 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:59 pm

...TEDDY STRENGTHENS TO A POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...LARGE SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THIS WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...
5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 17
Location: 20.1°N 54.1°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 945 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#566 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:59 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Almost certainly a Cat 4 based on that last pass. Multiple Cat 4 SFMRs, highest uncontaminated was 114 knots.



Yeah, I agree. It is a Cat 4 now.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#567 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:01 pm

:uarrow: LOL.. Right on cue
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#568 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:01 pm

Does anyone else think we could see a Cat.5 from Teddy or will time run out? Personally I’m going with no, but like last season with Lorenzo in the East-Central Atlantic never say never.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#569 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:02 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Does anyone else think we could see a Cat.5 from Teddy or will time run out? Personally I’m going with no, but like last season with Lorenzo in the East-Central Atlantic never say never.


Certainly not impossible if the structure continues to improve. Predicted peak is 150 mph.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#570 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:02 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Does anyone else think we could see a Cat.5 from Teddy or will time run out? Personally I’m going with no, but like last season with Lorenzo in the East-Central Atlantic never say never.

With the way things are going right now I think there's a decent chance
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#571 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:03 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Does anyone else think we could see a Cat.5 from Teddy or will time run out? Personally I’m going with no, but like last season with Lorenzo in the East-Central Atlantic never say never.



I think Teddy has a good chance to attain Category 5 within the next 24-48 hours as he passes Bermuda to the east (hopefully)
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#572 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:08 pm

120 kt and 945 mbar for the 5pm update, and still intensifying. Teddy has the chance to surpass Laura’s peak intensity tonight and maybe become a Cat 5. Who would’ve thought such an innocent sounding name would become such a powerful hurricane?
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#573 Postby wx98 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:10 pm

aspen wrote:120 kt and 945 mbar for the 5pm update, and still intensifying. Teddy has the chance to surpass Laura’s peak intensity tonight and maybe become a Cat 5. Who would’ve thought such an innocent sounding name would become such a powerful hurricane?

How much changes in a week. Remember when we thought this would be Sally and ride down close to the islands?
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#574 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:12 pm

120 Kt is official. That was what I initially thought they would go with when that last pass was reported.

Big, BAD Teddy!! My Lord, such an incredible, huge monster of a cyclone! I mentioned this earlier in a post , but I really think he has a shot to really rival Lorenzo when it is all said and done...
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#575 Postby gfsperpendicular » Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:19 pm

NHC: raises operational intensity slightly above SFMR readings because of undersampling
The plane that spent over an hour making like 5 consecutive eyewall passes: :raincloud:
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#576 Postby NotoSans » Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:20 pm

Eye sonde is 947mb/14kt so 946 looks reasonable.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#577 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:23 pm

ADT estimates for Teddy: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt20L.html

Raw Ts are up to 7.1!
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#578 Postby Do_For_Love » Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:24 pm

I think Teddy will make it to 156 and keep the yearly streak that Matthew started alive. I mean cmon, how is 2020 of all years not gonna have a Cat 5?? :P
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#579 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:27 pm

Do_For_Love wrote:I think Teddy will make it to 156 and keep the yearly streak that Matthew started alive. I mean cmon, how is 2020 of all years not gonna have a Cat 5?? :P

Yes indeed, it would be atypical 2020 the way it has turned out that is for sure.

The eye has just about cleared out on both visible and IR imagery. Hell of a storm this Teddy!!
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#580 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:28 pm

Well that's some overperformance right there. Go Teddy go.

Just... don't be a Sandy/Fabian hybrid and we good
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