ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

NHC: raises operational intensity slightly above SFMR readings because of undersampling
The plane that spent over an hour making like 5 consecutive eyewall passes:

The highest SFMR readings on the last pass before plane left were all contaminated when the storm is clearly still intensifying.

[gfsperpendicular]

NHC: raises operational intensity slightly above SFMR readings because of undersampling
The plane that spent over an hour making like 5 consecutive eyewall passes:

The highest SFMR readings on the last pass before plane left were all contaminated when the storm is clearly still intensifying.

No, I think the NHC nailed it. I was just joking about that unusual flight pattern

[aspen]

Just... don't be a Sandy/Fabian hybrid and we good

And you probably just jinxed us all. The malevolent spirit of 2020 watches us all.

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1306690170914250764

[TorSkk]

Very impressive appearance, some CDG too

[aspen]

This is easily the most impressive IR appearance in the Atlantic since Lorenzo.


Looking at the MPI map, it's no wonder why Teddy is going nuclear. The range of <910 mbar MPIs has expanded northward and Teddy is going right through it. Since the region it's in has a much higher potential than originally expected, and given Teddy's current trends and the surrounding dry air potentially keeping an EWRC at bay, a Cat 5 is looking ever more likely. We aren't even exactly at Dmax yet.


Do we know if the upcoming recon flight is low-level or another dropsonde?

[storm4u]

18z ICON is eye opening

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1306690170914250764?s=20

[TheStormExpert]

Does anyone else think we could see a Cat.5 from Teddy or will time run out? Personally I’m going with no, but like last season with Lorenzo in the East-Central Atlantic never say never.

Certainly not impossible if the structure continues to improve. Predicted peak is 150 mph.

It would be something to see a Cat.5 Hurricane in the Atlantic basin five consecutive seasons in a row.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z ICON is eye opening

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1306690170914250764?s=20

I think that’s the euro, but yes the icon is pretty alarming. 945mb right at the tip of Massachusetts

[TheStormExpert]

Well that's some overperformance right there. Go Teddy go.

Just... don't be a Sandy/Fabian hybrid and we good

And to think just last night we were questioning if Teddy would ever become a major hurricane due to it weakening. 2020 is full of surprises!

[TheStormExpert]

Last visible of Teddy before the sun sets.

[storm4u]

That is the Euro quoted it and commented about the Icon

18z ICON is eye opening

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1306690170914250764?s=20

I think that’s the euro, but yes the icon is pretty alarming. 945mb right at the tip of Massachusetts

[RL3AO]

Now it's starting to get some 7.0 vibes.

[ElectricStorm]

Last visible of Teddy before the sun sets.

https://s1.gifyu.com/images/goes16_vis_20L_202009171645.gif

What a monster...

[northjaxpro]

Now it's starting to get some 7.0 vibes.

It sure is RL3AO.

Wow, what an awesome satellite presentation above.

[TheStormExpert]

The wide picture.

[aspen]

Recon is about 3* longitude away from Teddy’s center and within an hour of entering the storm. I’m going to guess the first pass will find 125 kt/940 mbar.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1306707723048845318

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/i/status/1306715405097095174

[northjaxpro]

18Z GFS run very similar to UKMET from earlier today, showing Teddy moving over Eastern Nova Scotia. GFS has it moving in at 138 hours from now (12Z Wednesday)