ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

[Shell Mound]

Climatology would suggest that this gets sheared apart while remaining quasi-stationary to the east of the U.S.–Mexico border (mouth of the Rio Grande). Analogs include Inga (1961) and Olga (2019). Given its broad nature, I think that TD Twenty-Two may end up weaker than the NHC expects. I would estimate a peak of 45–50 knots in about two days, followed by weakening as VWS increases. Landfall looks rather unlikely at this stage, given interaction with a frontal boundary, along with dry air. The circulation will get stretched out and gradually perish beyond forty-eight hours.

[ClarCari]

Climatology would suggest that this gets sheared apart while remaining quasi-stationary to the east of the U.S.–Mexico border (mouth of the Rio Grande). Analogs include Inga (1961) and Olga (2019). Given its broad nature, I think that TD Twenty-Two may end up weaker than the NHC expects. I would estimate a peak of 45–50 knots in about two days, followed by weakening as VWS increases. Landfall looks rather unlikely at this stage, given interaction with a frontal boundary, along with dry air. The circulation will get stretched out and gradually perish beyond forty-eight hours.

One thing this won’t do is everything that you said.
I’d argue the climatology of the gulf this year has given breath to storms this year in spite of occasional unfavorable looking conditions. Storms have been forming around unfavorable environments and shifting into favorable ones and booming almost instantly.
I will never again trust the gulf after Sally’s last second ramp up just dozens of miles from landfall.

[chaser1]

Climatology would suggest that this gets sheared apart while remaining quasi-stationary to the east of the U.S.–Mexico border (mouth of the Rio Grande). Analogs include Inga (1961) and Olga (2019). Given its broad nature, I think that TD Twenty-Two may end up weaker than the NHC expects. I would estimate a peak of 45–50 knots in about two days, followed by weakening as VWS increases. Landfall looks rather unlikely at this stage, given interaction with a frontal boundary, along with dry air. The circulation will get stretched out and gradually perish beyond forty-eight hours.

One thing this won’t do is everything that you said.
I’d argue the climatology of the gulf this year has given breath to storms this year in spite of occasional unfavorable looking conditions. Storms have been forming around unfavorable environments and shifting into favorable ones and booming almost instantly.
I will never again trust the gulf after Sally’s last second ramp up just dozens of miles from landfall.

TBH, I'm betting against the house. I actually think that 22 will become Wilfred faster then NHC suggests, and will ramp up to a hurricane within 48 hours. Looks to me like it will actually be a small and fairly tight core system.

[ClarCari]

Climatology would suggest that this gets sheared apart while remaining quasi-stationary to the east of the U.S.–Mexico border (mouth of the Rio Grande). Analogs include Inga (1961) and Olga (2019). Given its broad nature, I think that TD Twenty-Two may end up weaker than the NHC expects. I would estimate a peak of 45–50 knots in about two days, followed by weakening as VWS increases. Landfall looks rather unlikely at this stage, given interaction with a frontal boundary, along with dry air. The circulation will get stretched out and gradually perish beyond forty-eight hours.

One thing this won’t do is everything that you said.
I’d argue the climatology of the gulf this year has given breath to storms this year in spite of occasional unfavorable looking conditions. Storms have been forming around unfavorable environments and shifting into favorable ones and booming almost instantly.
I will never again trust the gulf after Sally’s last second ramp up just dozens of miles from landfall.

TBH, I'm betting against the house. I actually think that 22 will become Wilfred faster then NHC suggests, and will ramp up to a hurricane within 48 hours. Looks to me like it will actually be a small and fairly tight core system.

I agree and the big thing to me is that while weak, the structure of this thing is prettier than Isaias ever was, and I genuinely mean that..like seriously do.
A more solid structure even when weak, will fight against shear and dry air more effectively.

[tolakram]

Climatology is somewhat meaningless in the shorter term. I still remember the year and the user who insisted Texas was closed due to a cold front coming down. Climatology can provide general trends and that's about it.

I think 22 will become a TS fairly quickly and then pulse up and down as dry air is entrained and then pushed out. If it goes far enough west it will end up over land and rain itself out. If it stays over water then I think landfall as a moderate TS over the northern gulf coast somewhere is likely. I'd hate to have to actually forecast this for a living since people only remember when you're wrong.

[SoupBone]

Climatology is somewhat meaningless in the shorter term. I still remember the year and the user who insisted Texas was closed due to a cold front coming down. Climatology can provide general trends and that's about it.

I think 22 will become a TS fairly quickly and then pulse up and down as dry air is entrained and then pushed out. If it goes far enough west it will end up over land and rain itself out. If it stays over water then I think landfall as a moderate TS over the northern gulf coast somewhere is likely. I'd hate to have to actually forecast this for a living since people only remember when you're wrong.

Ehhhh I do like climatology in the sense that it becomes a talking point in regards to rarity. Starting about right now, Texas systems do typically become much rarer. It's why poor Florida ends up starting its nail biting as we move into October. I definitely understand what you're saying though, never say never......especially in 2020.

[toad strangler]

Climatology is somewhat meaningless in the shorter term. I still remember the year and the user who insisted Texas was closed due to a cold front coming down. Climatology can provide general trends and that's about it.

I think 22 will become a TS fairly quickly and then pulse up and down as dry air is entrained and then pushed out. If it goes far enough west it will end up over land and rain itself out. If it stays over water then I think landfall as a moderate TS over the northern gulf coast somewhere is likely. I'd hate to have to actually forecast this for a living since people only remember when you're wrong.

wxman57 posted this same thought today. Being remembered only when wrong isn't owned by meteorologists. The same is true for almost every person who walks this planet. Doctors, pilots, salesman, electricians, police, sports officiating, engineers, Taco Bell drive thru attendants, and on and on that live the same microscope everyday. #life

This is a unique set up that's not seen too often so will be interesting!

[Aric Dunn]

Climatology would suggest that this gets sheared apart while remaining quasi-stationary to the east of the U.S.–Mexico border (mouth of the Rio Grande). Analogs include Inga (1961) and Olga (2019). Given its broad nature, I think that TD Twenty-Two may end up weaker than the NHC expects. I would estimate a peak of 45–50 knots in about two days, followed by weakening as VWS increases. Landfall looks rather unlikely at this stage, given interaction with a frontal boundary, along with dry air. The circulation will get stretched out and gradually perish beyond forty-eight hours.

Lucky for us.. we dont use climatology in forecasting TCs these days

[chaser1]

Climatology is somewhat meaningless in the shorter term. I still remember the year and the user who insisted Texas was closed due to a cold front coming down. Climatology can provide general trends and that's about it.

I think 22 will become a TS fairly quickly and then pulse up and down as dry air is entrained and then pushed out. If it goes far enough west it will end up over land and rain itself out. If it stays over water then I think landfall as a moderate TS over the northern gulf coast somewhere is likely. I'd hate to have to actually forecast this for a living since people only remember when you're wrong.

Sad but true; such is human nature I guess.

[chaser1]

One other question is whether Wilfred will still be around as a T.S. (or stronger) when the "Greek Festival" begins. My guess would be "yes".

[Sciencerocks]

[Stormcenter]

If it were only that easy to write off a potential
TS. I guess we could try to wish it away.

Climatology would suggest that this gets sheared apart while remaining quasi-stationary to the east of the U.S.–Mexico border (mouth of the Rio Grande). Analogs include Inga (1961) and Olga (2019). Given its broad nature, I think that TD Twenty-Two may end up weaker than the NHC expects. I would estimate a peak of 45–50 knots in about two days, followed by weakening as VWS increases. Landfall looks rather unlikely at this stage, given interaction with a frontal boundary, along with dry air. The circulation will get stretched out and gradually perish beyond forty-eight hours.

[Craters]

Levi's latest discussion is up: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/.

[CrazyC83]

Except for Marco, which was sheared to death by Laura, pretty much every storm has intensified up to landfall this year. I'd bet against the house too with a hurricane landfall.

[MGC]

I'm going to have to pull my slide rule out to keep track of all the TC that are developing. Well, something to watch the next week. Getting vibes of Edith in 1971 track in GOM......MGC

[cycloneye]

The 10 PM CDT advisory ups the peak and it goes up to hurricane.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 22.0N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 22.9N 93.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 23.9N 93.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 24.8N 92.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 25.4N 93.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 25.6N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 25.7N 94.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 26.1N 95.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 26.4N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

[ElectricStorm]

I've got a bad feeling about this one. Just like pretty much all the storms in the gulf this year. If there's any good news, it seems for now the NHC is indicating weakening before landfall (finally!) Rainfall threat still big though

[edu2703]

I've got a bad feeling about this one. Just like pretty much all the storms in the gulf this year. If there's any good news, it seems for now the NHC is indicating weakening before landfall (finally!) Rainfall threat still big though

NHC mentions that there is a significant uncertainty in the intensity forecast. I wouldn't make any conclusions yet.

Unfortunately, there is also significant uncertainty in the
intensity forecast. Light-to-moderate southerly to southwesterly
shear is expected to affect the depression for the next couple of
days while it moves over very warm waters of 30-31 degrees Celsius
and in a very moist environment. Things change quickly after 48
hours due to a cold front entering the northern Gulf, and the drier,
more stable air mass behind the front could be entrained into the
cyclone's circulation from day 3 to day 5. The GFS- and ECMWF-based
SHIPS models show the most significant strengthening, bringing the
intensity to 75-80 kt in about 3 days, while many of the other
intensity models don't even raise it to hurricane intensity. As a
compromise between these various solutions, the NHC intensity
forecast shows the cyclone just reaching the hurricane threshold in
2-3 days and then gradually weakening thereafter due to the less
favorable environment. However, it cannot be stressed enough that
this forecast is highly uncertain.

[supercane4867]

This may end up being one of the craziest paths for a gulf system.

[ElectricStorm]

https://i.imgur.com/VrTlcO6.png

I've got a bad feeling about this one. Just like pretty much all the storms in the gulf this year. If there's any good news, it seems for now the NHC is indicating weakening before landfall (finally!) Rainfall threat still big though

NHC mentions that there is a significant uncertainty in the intensity forecast. I wouldn't make any conclusions yet.

Unfortunately, there is also significant uncertainty in the
intensity forecast. Light-to-moderate southerly to southwesterly
shear is expected to affect the depression for the next couple of
days while it moves over very warm waters of 30-31 degrees Celsius
and in a very moist environment. Things change quickly after 48
hours due to a cold front entering the northern Gulf, and the drier,
more stable air mass behind the front could be entrained into the
cyclone's circulation from day 3 to day 5. The GFS- and ECMWF-based
SHIPS models show the most significant strengthening, bringing the
intensity to 75-80 kt in about 3 days, while many of the other
intensity models don't even raise it to hurricane intensity. As a
compromise between these various solutions, the NHC intensity
forecast shows the cyclone just reaching the hurricane threshold in
2-3 days and then gradually weakening thereafter due to the less
favorable environment. However, it cannot be stressed enough that
this forecast is highly uncertain.

Yeah thats why I said for now. Obviously that could change and knowing this season, there's a good chance it will