ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

The eye seems to be improving on visible, but it’s hard to tell with the glitchy GOES data that sometimes has a massive black line right over the eye.

Are we getting any more research flights today, or will recon wait until this gets close to Bermuda?

[tolakram]

No visible glitches here ... https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16.html

You can click on the image and zoom in with the mouse wheel.

https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis/meso2_60.html

[plasticup]

Sadly it looks like the chances of big Bermuda impacts are increasing per the NHC discussion

They wrote that in the discussion but their graphics dropped the probability of hurricane force winds down to 20%

[aspen]

EWRC is coming.

[BYG Jacob]

EWRC is coming.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al20/amsusr89/2020al20_amsusr89_202009180945.gif

Hard to tell if that's a secondary eyewall or banding based on that resolution

[CrazyC83]

EWRC is coming.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al20/amsusr89/2020al20_amsusr89_202009180945.gif

Hard to tell if that's a secondary eyewall or banding based on that resolution

That looks like an EWRC to me.

[BYG Jacob]

EWRC is coming.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al20/amsusr89/2020al20_amsusr89_202009180945.gif

Hard to tell if that's a secondary eyewall or banding based on that resolution

That looks like an EWRC to me.

One huge eye

[TallyTracker]

If that is an ERWC beginning, that will be a massive eye! Maybe the HWRF depictions weren’t on crack after all!

[us89]

Hard to tell if that's a secondary eyewall or banding based on that resolution

That looks like an EWRC to me.

One huge eye

HWRF has been showing the development of a massive eye. If this happens, will be yet another success in modeling storm structure.

[aspen]

Recon is closing in on Teddy. Let’s see if it’s still a Cat 4.

Edit: okay they’re already in Teddy

[aspen]

This is probably back down to a Cat 3. Recon has only occasionally found Cat 4 FL winds, SFMR is 5-10 kt lower than last night, and the pressure has risen to 950-953 mbar.

[ClarCari]

I can’t write Teddy off on getting stronger again since we know how that goes, but daaanngg that eye is gonna be pretty big

[ElectricStorm]

This is probably back down to a Cat 3. Recon has only occasionally found Cat 4 FL winds, SFMR is 5-10 kt lower than last night, and the pressure has risen to 950-953 mbar.

Yeah I agree. His windfield is going to be insane though

[CrazyC83]

As far as current intensity, I would go with 100 kt.

[cheezyWXguy]

That looks like an EWRC to me.

One huge eye

HWRF has been showing the development of a massive eye. If this happens, will be yet another success in modeling storm structure.

I’m a little on the fence here. HWRF backed off on intensity several days ago because it saw the development of the large eye from the start. Teddy developed A more regularly proportional eye, resulting in a higher than expected intensity. HWRF had to be fed the smaller eye yesterday when teddy was a 4. It looks like it could have that large eye eventually though

[CrazyC83]

050
URNT15 KWBC 181900
NOAA2 WE20A TEDDY HDOB 30 20200918
185100 2243N 05631W 7514 02081 9510 +193 +164 156026 028 034 002 00
185130 2241N 05631W 7518 02075 9504 +200 +157 184032 033 034 001 00
185200 2240N 05630W 7525 02070 9508 +197 +158 200036 038 035 002 00
185230 2238N 05629W 7517 02086 9516 +194 +162 202047 052 043 002 00
185300 2237N 05627W 7513 02105 9529 +198 +158 201061 065 057 003 00
185330 2236N 05625W 7514 02118 9545 +196 +160 200071 075 059 003 03
185400 2235N 05626W 7517 02115 9551 +191 +161 197075 077 /// /// 03
185430 2234N 05627W 7519 02104 9542 +190 +162 206066 071 /// /// 03
185500 2235N 05629W 7515 02094 9520 +202 +159 208058 059 /// /// 03
185530 2237N 05630W 7515 02088 9522 +188 +159 202046 050 041 001 03
185600 2239N 05631W 7518 02080 9521 +182 +168 191036 039 036 002 00
185630 2242N 05632W 7520 02074 9509 +192 +165 182035 036 034 002 00
185700 2244N 05632W 7514 02077 9502 +197 +162 175031 032 032 002 00
185730 2246N 05633W 7514 02078 9508 +191 +163 148029 030 031 001 00
185800 2248N 05634W 7518 02076 9513 +187 +167 137033 034 037 001 00
185830 2251N 05634W 7518 02082 9519 +185 +167 124035 037 040 002 00
185900 2253N 05635W 7518 02087 9525 +184 +168 119042 045 047 002 00
185930 2255N 05636W 7518 02095 9537 +180 +169 119052 055 055 004 00
190000 2257N 05636W 7515 02110 9549 +179 +172 116061 066 071 005 00
190030 2259N 05637W 7514 02126 9567 +174 +172 120079 082 090 012 00

Pressure 950 mb.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

NHC going with 110 knots.

Hurricane TEDDY
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 18, 2020:

Location: 22.6°N 56.6°W
Maximum Winds: 110 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 nm
Radius of Maximum wind: 25 nm
64 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:

[CrazyC83]

815
URNT15 KNHC 181915
AF306 0220A TEDDY HDOB 30 20200918
190600 2245N 05639W 6968 02697 9487 +147 +132 124005 009 022 002 00
190630 2243N 05640W 6969 02697 9491 +143 +128 182002 004 019 002 00
190700 2242N 05641W 6968 02701 9498 +138 +132 237007 009 022 002 00
190730 2241N 05642W 6973 02695 9495 +141 +132 257010 011 022 002 03
190800 2241N 05644W 6965 02703 9488 +147 +127 249008 010 /// /// 03
190830 2243N 05643W 6966 02701 9491 +145 +128 230010 011 018 002 03
190900 2243N 05641W 6970 02694 9494 +138 +132 215010 011 022 001 00
190930 2243N 05639W 6966 02692 9484 +141 +130 187009 009 021 001 03
191000 2245N 05639W 6964 02694 9481 +142 +130 121011 012 021 002 00
191030 2246N 05640W 6973 02683 9482 +140 +131 109012 013 020 002 00
191100 2248N 05642W 6967 02688 9481 +140 +135 090013 013 020 001 00
191130 2249N 05643W 6962 02692 9474 +146 +131 076016 018 019 002 03
191200 2249N 05645W 6969 02686 9479 +142 +131 058015 018 /// /// 03
191230 2247N 05645W 6964 02692 9483 +140 +135 055007 013 020 004 00
191300 2245N 05644W 6973 02684 9483 +141 +137 134001 005 023 001 05
191330 2244N 05643W 6971 02684 9482 +141 +135 255007 007 021 001 03
191400 2242N 05644W 6967 02690 9475 +149 +128 269010 011 018 001 00
191430 2241N 05645W 6967 02692 9472 +155 +125 277013 013 019 001 00
191500 2240N 05647W 6967 02696 9467 +164 +122 287016 021 019 001 00
191530 2239N 05648W 6968 02697 9471 +164 +121 299026 027 018 001 00
$$
;

Pressure 947 mb.

[CrazyC83]

Wrong thread.

[ElectricStorm]

815
URNT15 KNHC 181915
AF306 0220A TEDDY HDOB 30 20200918
190600 2245N 05639W 6968 02697 9487 +147 +132 124005 009 022 002 00
190630 2243N 05640W 6969 02697 9491 +143 +128 182002 004 019 002 00
190700 2242N 05641W 6968 02701 9498 +138 +132 237007 009 022 002 00
190730 2241N 05642W 6973 02695 9495 +141 +132 257010 011 022 002 03
190800 2241N 05644W 6965 02703 9488 +147 +127 249008 010 /// /// 03
190830 2243N 05643W 6966 02701 9491 +145 +128 230010 011 018 002 03
190900 2243N 05641W 6970 02694 9494 +138 +132 215010 011 022 001 00
190930 2243N 05639W 6966 02692 9484 +141 +130 187009 009 021 001 03
191000 2245N 05639W 6964 02694 9481 +142 +130 121011 012 021 002 00
191030 2246N 05640W 6973 02683 9482 +140 +131 109012 013 020 002 00
191100 2248N 05642W 6967 02688 9481 +140 +135 090013 013 020 001 00
191130 2249N 05643W 6962 02692 9474 +146 +131 076016 018 019 002 03
191200 2249N 05645W 6969 02686 9479 +142 +131 058015 018 /// /// 03
191230 2247N 05645W 6964 02692 9483 +140 +135 055007 013 020 004 00
191300 2245N 05644W 6973 02684 9483 +141 +137 134001 005 023 001 05
191330 2244N 05643W 6971 02684 9482 +141 +135 255007 007 021 001 03
191400 2242N 05644W 6967 02690 9475 +149 +128 269010 011 018 001 00
191430 2241N 05645W 6967 02692 9472 +155 +125 277013 013 019 001 00
191500 2240N 05647W 6967 02696 9467 +164 +122 287016 021 019 001 00
191530 2239N 05648W 6968 02697 9471 +164 +121 299026 027 018 001 00
$$
;

Pressure 947 mb.

Pressure dropping again. Maybe another round of intensification coming?