ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

[us89]

From the discussion:

This ridge should act as a Beta blocker, causing the storm to turn westward toward the western Gulf coast.

[cheezyWXguy]

The Nam looks scary and much stronger folks

It also initializes at 981mb. Classic NAM

[ConvergenceZone]

I’m so glad that the latest NHC discussion is mentioning shear and dry air. We need a break!

[kevin]

From the discussion:

This ridge should act as a Beta blocker, causing the storm to turn westward toward the western Gulf coast.

That has to be the best forecast discussion line I've ever read.

[jasons2k]

From the discussion:

This ridge should act as a Beta blocker, causing the storm to turn westward toward the western Gulf coast.

That has to be the best forecast discussion line I've ever read.

"It is quite possible that little or nothing will be left of Franklin — the storm, not the forecaster — in 2–3 days." A classic gem among many others.

I'm getting concerned about the flooding potential across SE Texas. The trend in the NHC track is not good for the Houston area.

[ElectricStorm]

Beta was the most destructive Greek storm in 2005. Now we wait and see if it continues that here in 2020

[SoupBone]

From the discussion:

This ridge should act as a Beta blocker, causing the storm to turn westward toward the western Gulf coast.

That has to be the best forecast discussion line I've ever read.

"It is quite possible that little or nothing will be left of Franklin — the storm, not the forecaster — in 2–3 days." A classic gem among many others.

I'm getting concerned about the flooding potential across SE Texas. The trend in the NHC track is not good for the Houston area.

It's already seeing dry air intrusion which doesn't seem be letting up. Look at a bunch of its moisture being pushed into Louisiana already. Displacement to its east seems likely with this type of track, especially given the setup that drags it out to the NE. I guess it depends on if shear continues to affect it over the next several days.

[HurricaneBelle]

From the discussion:

This ridge should act as a Beta blocker, causing the storm to turn westward toward the western Gulf coast.

With its projected erratic movement, Beta should be a real test for the NHC.

[aspen]

I’m so glad that the latest NHC discussion is mentioning shear and dry air. We need a break!

I still don’t trust Beta to not do something funny. It’ll be in the Gulf for at least five days, we’ve had three Gulf hurricanes rapidly intensify before landfall, and SSTs are still broiling. Not very calming signs for any new system in the Gulf.

[Hurricane Mike]

Jack Beven is awesome. Met him and interviewed him on multiple occasions.

Here's a 5pm video on Beta and the tropics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2-NDQ6dO5M

[Blinhart]

I’m so glad that the latest NHC discussion is mentioning shear and dry air. We need a break!

I still don’t trust Beta to not do something funny. It’ll be in the Gulf for at least five days, we’ve had three Gulf hurricanes rapidly intensify before landfall, and SSTs are still broiling. Not very calming signs for any new system in the Gulf.

I agree, this is a very scary situation.

[HeeBGBz]

The weather that's over Louisiana is headed north east. Watching the radar.

[ElectricStorm]

I’m so glad that the latest NHC discussion is mentioning shear and dry air. We need a break!

I still don’t trust Beta to not do something funny. It’ll be in the Gulf for at least five days, we’ve had three Gulf hurricanes rapidly intensify before landfall, and SSTs are still broiling. Not very calming signs for any new system in the Gulf.

Yeah. Unfortunately I think Beta will be much stronger than a minimal cat 1 at peak

[edu2703]

Saved loop

[jasons2k]

I'm getting concerned about the flooding potential across SE Texas. The trend in the NHC track is not good for the Houston area.

It's already seeing dry air intrusion which doesn't seem be letting up. Look at a bunch of its moisture being pushed into Louisiana already. Displacement to its east seems likely with this type of track, especially given the setup that drags it out to the NE. I guess it depends on if shear continues to affect it over the next several days.

It may be a lopsided storm for most of its life. But if it's at the NHC forecast point on 1PM Wednesday, the Houston area will be sitting in prime position for incoming training feeder bands. If the center gets nudged north and west some in future forecasts, even more so. Basically what I am seeing now in the NHC forecast track is not a good trend for SE Texas. That may reverse down the road...we have a long way to go with Beta and there is a lot of uncertainty....but the latest shift was towards Texas, not away from it.

[al78]

Let's hope we don't have to come up with a Plan C if the Greek names run out.

Don't worry about it, it's not going to happen.

[al78]

I'm getting concerned about the flooding potential across SE Texas. The trend in the NHC track is not good for the Houston area.

It's already seeing dry air intrusion which doesn't seem be letting up. Look at a bunch of its moisture being pushed into Louisiana already. Displacement to its east seems likely with this type of track, especially given the setup that drags it out to the NE. I guess it depends on if shear continues to affect it over the next several days.

It may be a lopsided storm for most of its life. But if it's at the NHC forecast point on 1PM Wednesday, the Houston area will be sitting in prime position for incoming training feeder bands. If the center gets nudged north and west some in future forecasts, even more so. Basically what I am seeing now in the NHC forecast track is not a good trend for SE Texas. That may reverse down the road...we have a long way to go with Beta and there is a lot of uncertainty....but the latest shift was towards Texas, not away from it.

Do you think this could potentially be one of those storms that doesn't have monstrous winds, but could drop flooding rains?

[setxweathergal64]

From the discussion:

This ridge should act as a Beta blocker, causing the storm to turn westward toward the western Gulf coast.

That has to be the best forecast discussion line I've ever read.

"It is quite possible that little or nothing will be left of Franklin — the storm, not the forecaster — in 2–3 days." A classic gem among many others.

I'm getting concerned about the flooding potential across SE Texas. The trend in the NHC track is not good for the Houston area.

Our local met for Bmt said total 5-10 in. max. I hope he's right.

[jasons2k]

It's already seeing dry air intrusion which doesn't seem be letting up. Look at a bunch of its moisture being pushed into Louisiana already. Displacement to its east seems likely with this type of track, especially given the setup that drags it out to the NE. I guess it depends on if shear continues to affect it over the next several days.

It may be a lopsided storm for most of its life. But if it's at the NHC forecast point on 1PM Wednesday, the Houston area will be sitting in prime position for incoming training feeder bands. If the center gets nudged north and west some in future forecasts, even more so. Basically what I am seeing now in the NHC forecast track is not a good trend for SE Texas. That may reverse down the road...we have a long way to go with Beta and there is a lot of uncertainty....but the latest shift was towards Texas, not away from it.

Do you think this could potentially be one of those storms that doesn't have monstrous winds, but could drop flooding rains?

The potential is there with a stalling scenario forecast. The question is how much gets onshore.

Keep in mind even though the NHC forecast track ends on Wednesday, the storm isn't going to disappear. From there it should still meander NE and dump a lot of rain.

At this time, my primary concern with Beta is flooding. Also, even though storm surge may not be that high, the relentless over-wash will cause a lot of beach erosion too.

[SoupBone]

I think what's in Houston's favor is the forward speed once it starts moving. Unike Harvey, it looks like it would get pushed out. I haven't seen a model yet that stalls it over Houston. Now, Corpus Christi is a different story, and the latest GFS looks really bad for overall rainfall as it sits on top of them for over a day and a half.