ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

Isn’t recon supposed to be going into this at some point?

[ConvergenceZone]

I’m so glad that the latest NHC discussion is mentioning shear and dry air. We need a break!

I still don’t trust Beta to not do something funny. It’ll be in the Gulf for at least five days, we’ve had three Gulf hurricanes rapidly intensify before landfall, and SSTs are still broiling. Not very calming signs for any new system in the Gulf.

True, never say never. But it appears the odds are more in our favor this time, as the vertical shear and dry air appear a bit more prominent than with previous gulf storms this year, even though the shear will lessen a tiny amount over the next couple of days

[ConvergenceZone]

I’m so glad that the latest NHC discussion is mentioning shear and dry air. We need a break!

I still don’t trust Beta to not do something funny. It’ll be in the Gulf for at least five days, we’ve had three Gulf hurricanes rapidly intensify before landfall, and SSTs are still broiling. Not very calming signs for any new system in the Gulf.

Yeah. Unfortunately I think Beta will be much stronger than a minimal cat 1 at peak

Evidence?
Conditions will need to become much improved

[Dean_175]

Why does it seem like the NHC is reluctant to name these northeast subtropical storms? Cool SSTs and climatology saying development there is unlikely? I remember seeing this system on the GFS model run several days ago- but no yellow x on the NHC's tropical weather outlook. Then it was listed as 20/20 until it was suddenly and unexpectedly upgraded to Alpha.

Same thing with the December 2013 subtropical storm. That thing was spinning out in the northeast Atlantic for a couple of days with clear subtropical characteristics but never received a name. It was only recognized in post-season analysis.

EDIT: wrong storm

[ElectricStorm]

I still don’t trust Beta to not do something funny. It’ll be in the Gulf for at least five days, we’ve had three Gulf hurricanes rapidly intensify before landfall, and SSTs are still broiling. Not very calming signs for any new system in the Gulf.

Yeah. Unfortunately I think Beta will be much stronger than a minimal cat 1 at peak

Evidence?
Conditions will need to become much improved

Yes they will. But they also mentioned shear with Sally and it blew up into a borderline major when it hit. Plus most of the storms in the gulf have rapidly intensified this year before landfall. I just don't trust a storm with this much time over water in the gulf after what has happened this year so far

[ConvergenceZone]

Yeah. Unfortunately I think Beta will be much stronger than a minimal cat 1 at peak

Evidence?
Conditions will need to become much improved

Yes they will. But they also mentioned shear with Sally and it blew up into a borderline major when it hit. Plus most of the storms in the gulf have rapidly intensified this year before landfall. I just don't trust a storm with this much time over water in the gulf after what has happened this year so far

I get it, but you can never equate previous storms to the way a current storm will behave. As the Mets said on tv, Sally also caused lots of upwelling in the Eastern Gulf last week, that won’t go away anytime soon. So any strong intensification would make more sense if the storm is heading to Texas. I think the models are sniffing this out as well.

[ElectricStorm]

Evidence?
Conditions will need to become much improved

Yes they will. But they also mentioned shear with Sally and it blew up into a borderline major when it hit. Plus most of the storms in the gulf have rapidly intensified this year before landfall. I just don't trust a storm with this much time over water in the gulf after what has happened this year so far

I get it, but you can never equate previous storms to the way a current storm will behave. As the Mets said on tv, Sally also caused lots of upwelling in the Eastern Gulf last week, that won’t go away anytime soon. So any strong intensification would make more sense if the storm is heading to Texas. I think the models are sniffing this out as well.

Yeah I try not to compare storms to other storms too much. But to me when pretty much every storm in the gulf found a way to intensify before landfall, it will need to be watched. Not saying it will be a Laura or Sally, but I don't trust it with it moving so slow meandering around.

[Hammy]

Evidence?
Conditions will need to become much improved

Yes they will. But they also mentioned shear with Sally and it blew up into a borderline major when it hit. Plus most of the storms in the gulf have rapidly intensified this year before landfall. I just don't trust a storm with this much time over water in the gulf after what has happened this year so far

I get it, but you can never equate previous storms to the way a current storm will behave. As the Mets said on tv, Sally also caused lots of upwelling in the Eastern Gulf last week, that won’t go away anytime soon. So any strong intensification would make more sense if the storm is heading to Texas. I think the models are sniffing this out as well.

Beta is not going to be anywhere even remotely close to where Sally's upwelling was. And you can equate previous storms when referring to model performance--they have consistently under-forecast the Gulf systems this year. From Hanna as an area of cloudiness, to Marco not developing, to Laura as a tropical wave or low end storm, to Sally as a tropical storm.

[xironman]

Isn’t recon supposed to be going into this at some point?

On its way but still an hour out.

Time: 22:32:30Z
Coordinates: 27.250N 91.200W

[bbadon]

Did this thing just reform under the convection? Or is it just that elongated?

[Cpv17]

I think what's in Houston's favor is the forward speed once it starts moving. Unike Harvey, it looks like it would get pushed out. I haven't seen a model yet that stalls it over Houston. Now, Corpus Christi is a different story, and the latest GFS looks really bad for overall rainfall as it sits on top of them for over a day and a half.

There will be rain away from the center. If it goes into Corpus Christi, there will be several bands of rain training across southeast TX. The center of Harvey was never over Houston. It made landfall in Rockport and meandered around that part of the state for 3 or so days. The heaviest rains were over southeast Texas during that timeframe..well away from the center.

[tailgater]

Back to Beta, HH recon finding 45+ mph winds SMFR Already, on its way to the center

[Frank P]

Convection firing back up near and just north of the center... watching the vis sat loops that Beta blocker better put on the brakes really soon!

https://imgur.com/a/nojPshZ

https://imgur.com/a/Ghvq9OS

[ConvergenceZone]

Yes they will. But they also mentioned shear with Sally and it blew up into a borderline major when it hit. Plus most of the storms in the gulf have rapidly intensified this year before landfall. I just don't trust a storm with this much time over water in the gulf after what has happened this year so far

I get it, but you can never equate previous storms to the way a current storm will behave. As the Mets said on tv, Sally also caused lots of upwelling in the Eastern Gulf last week, that won’t go away anytime soon. So any strong intensification would make more sense if the storm is heading to Texas. I think the models are sniffing this out as well.

Beta is not going to be anywhere even remotely close to where Sally's upwelling was. And you can equate previous storms when referring to model performance--they have consistently under-forecast the Gulf systems this year. From Hanna as an area of cloudiness, to Marco not developing, to Laura as a tropical wave or low end storm, to Sally as a tropical storm.

Regardless, this will probably just be a rainmaker as the weather channel is saying. I wouldn’t rule out a hurricane though, even though it’s forecast to weaken below that if it goes further north. Could be a min hurricane if it hits Texas though

[davidiowx]

It may be a lopsided storm for most of its life. But if it's at the NHC forecast point on 1PM Wednesday, the Houston area will be sitting in prime position for incoming training feeder bands. If the center gets nudged north and west some in future forecasts, even more so. Basically what I am seeing now in the NHC forecast track is not a good trend for SE Texas. That may reverse down the road...we have a long way to go with Beta and there is a lot of uncertainty....but the latest shift was towards Texas, not away from it.

Do you think this could potentially be one of those storms that doesn't have monstrous winds, but could drop flooding rains?

The potential is there with a stalling scenario forecast. The question is how much gets onshore.

Keep in mind even though the NHC forecast track ends on Wednesday, the storm isn't going to disappear. From there it should still meander NE and dump a lot of rain.

At this time, my primary concern with Beta is flooding. Also, even though storm surge may not be that high, the relentless over-wash will cause a lot of beach erosion too.

The higher surge will also cause additional issues with runoff. It’s a bad combination all around if the storm ends up dumping copious amounts of rain on land.

Just saw Galveston County is discussing voluntary evacuations for the Bolivar Peninsula already.

[CrazyC83]

Aircraft found winds supporting 50 kt already. Once the center is fixed I'd expect a Special Advisory.

[ElectricStorm]

I get it, but you can never equate previous storms to the way a current storm will behave. As the Mets said on tv, Sally also caused lots of upwelling in the Eastern Gulf last week, that won’t go away anytime soon. So any strong intensification would make more sense if the storm is heading to Texas. I think the models are sniffing this out as well.

Beta is not going to be anywhere even remotely close to where Sally's upwelling was. And you can equate previous storms when referring to model performance--they have consistently under-forecast the Gulf systems this year. From Hanna as an area of cloudiness, to Marco not developing, to Laura as a tropical wave or low end storm, to Sally as a tropical storm.

Regardless, this will probably just be a rainmaker as the weather channel is saying. I wouldn’t rule out a hurricane though, even though it’s forecast to weaken below that

Oh I also should have specified, I don't think landfall will necessarily be higher than a Cat 1. I meant I think it will peak higher than a cat 1 but it could weaken before landfall. Still to early to tell just speculation

[cheezyWXguy]

I get it, but you can never equate previous storms to the way a current storm will behave. As the Mets said on tv, Sally also caused lots of upwelling in the Eastern Gulf last week, that won’t go away anytime soon. So any strong intensification would make more sense if the storm is heading to Texas. I think the models are sniffing this out as well.

Beta is not going to be anywhere even remotely close to where Sally's upwelling was. And you can equate previous storms when referring to model performance--they have consistently under-forecast the Gulf systems this year. From Hanna as an area of cloudiness, to Marco not developing, to Laura as a tropical wave or low end storm, to Sally as a tropical storm.

Regardless, this will probably just be a rainmaker as the weather channel is saying. I wouldn’t rule out a hurricane though, even though it’s forecast to weaken below that

The forecast is highly uncertain, and a system this small will have the potential for quick fluctuations in intensity. The gfs appears to be feeling this out, judging by its intensification on the way to stx, and then again toward final landfall in LA. The potential intensity ceiling is about as high as Sally’s was, even if a lower probability. Don’t sleep on this one

[tailgater]

Aircraft found winds supporting 50 kt already. Once the center is fixed I'd expect a Special Advisory.

I Hope that wind shift isn’t a new coc forming

[Aric Dunn]

50kts per recon. pretty much what I figured.