ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Right on queue
Vortical hot tower with a warm core feature.
Questions?

[Aric Dunn]

just got some fresh model guidance
2 models take it barely over hurricane status..
majority barely gets it over 50 kts


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/22L_intensity_latest.png

Whats your point ?

they did the same thing initially for just about every system this year. Hanna, Laura, Isalsa, Sally, Marco, etc.. models all showed a weak system. and we know how those turned out..

model intensity is especially in the early stages are highly variable and more often than not wrong.

what else do you have ?

early stages? bro the storm is sitting off the coast, its a sheared mess and you know that. It's fighting mid to upper level shear and it's in a highly unfavorable spot right now to develop.

So your saying it does not have plenty of time ? Also it just formed a well defined Circ yesterady and during the overnight. models have not even ingested all the data yet so saying it wont become a hurricane or giving any absolutes in general ...sure doesnt sound like someone with "15 year of tracking" .

[Blinhart]

Here's the real SSTs if anyone is confusedhttps://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/gulfmex.cf.gif

And the water that was cooled from Sally just needs a couple days of sun light to get the temp back up fast. Luckily Beta is causing a lot of cloud cover and the cool front is keeping them from heating up right now.

[GCANE]

Early swirly just got buried in a hurry.

[Aric Dunn]

Here's the real SSTs if anyone is confusedhttps://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/gulfmex.cf.gif

And the water that was cooled from Sally just needs a couple days of sun light to get the temp back up fast. Luckily Beta is causing a lot of cloud cover and the cool front is keeping them from heating up right now.

those waters cooled by Sally are sill 81 plus degrees

[kassi]

Whats your point ?

they did the same thing initially for just about every system this year. Hanna, Laura, Isalsa, Sally, Marco, etc.. models all showed a weak system. and we know how those turned out..

model intensity is especially in the early stages are highly variable and more often than not wrong.

what else do you have ?

early stages? bro the storm is sitting off the coast, its a sheared mess and you know that. It's fighting mid to upper level shear and it's in a highly unfavorable spot right now to develop.

So your saying it does not have plenty of time ? Also it just formed a well defined Circ yesterady and during the overnight. models have not even ingested all the data yet so saying it wont become a hurricane or giving any absolutes in general ...sure doesnt sound like someone with "15 year of tracking" .

Aric.. ignore him. He's a self proclaimed troll. Some of us are looking for real information.

[aspen]

Model guidance has been favoring this stalling inland starting on day 3, so it has roughly 60 hours over water to do something. How strong Beta gets depends on whether or not it’s able to fend off dry air and develop a protective moisture pocket once shear dies down later today. I think anything from a 45-50 mph tropical storm to a borderline Cat 2/3 hurricane is on the table.

[Nimbus]

Shear hasn't removed the plume on this burst yet and recon found the surface pressure down to 995 mb. Should go almost stationary before drifting in a new direction.

[Blinhart]

Here's the real SSTs if anyone is confusedhttps://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/gulfmex.cf.gif

And the water that was cooled from Sally just needs a couple days of sun light to get the temp back up fast. Luckily Beta is causing a lot of cloud cover and the cool front is keeping them from heating up right now.

those waters cooled by Sally are sill 81 plus degrees

I understand that, just bit on the TROLL.

[us89]

just got some fresh model guidance
2 models take it barely over hurricane status..
majority barely gets it over 50 kts


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/22L_intensity_latest.png

Whats your point ?

they did the same thing initially for just about every system this year. Hanna, Laura, Isalsa, Sally, Marco, etc.. models all showed a weak system. and we know how those turned out..

model intensity is especially in the early stages are highly variable and more often than not wrong.

what else do you have ?

early stages? bro the storm is sitting off the coast, its a sheared mess and you know that. It's fighting mid to upper level shear and it's in a highly unfavorable spot right now to develop.

Remember how Michael was supposed to be held back by wind shear? Not saying Beta is going to be another Michael, but this is dangerous thinking.

[Aric Dunn]

Shear hasn't removed the plume on this burst yet and recon found the surface pressure down to 995 mb. Should go almost stationary before drifting in a new direction.

Yeah looks like the mid level shear pulse has passed by. little to no tilt to the column on this burst.

[Texasgulfcoast]

No troll, just not buying the hype and you can all get upset that this will not form into a hurricane.

Potential post that won't age well.... file this one away.

[edu2703]

Please, can we stop the nonsense here ? You are free to give your own opinions. The problem starts the moment you turn your personal opinion into a statement and even starts to say that the NHC is wrong and you're right. And is even worse when it's based on false data.

If you think Beta will continue to be disorganized and dissipate before landfall, I respect. If you think Beta will undergo RI, I respect. But let's keep that as an personal opinion and let the NHC do its job, making it clear that people on the path of this storm rely only on NHC and local authorities to make preparations. While we go back to discussing what this storm is doing now.

Here is not a competition for those who have the most accurate forecast.

[GCANE]

A bit of gravity waves in the cirrus outflow from the tower.
Shear has relaxed quite a bit.
ML to LL stacking process underway.

[setxweathergal64]

What are the key timeframes? When was the west turn supposed to start? I keep hearing west then NE. Is it still on course?

[Horn1991]

From NWS:

...BETA STARTING ITS WESTWARD TURN...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS...

*** A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake
*** A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas
*** A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana
*** A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to Morgan City Louisiana

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by late Sunday or Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Monday or Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the southwestern Louisiana coast as early as tonight, and along the south Texas coast Sunday night.

At 10 a.m. CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located about 305 miles (495 km) east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas. Beta is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected to begin later today, with a slow northwestward motion forecast to begin late Sunday or Sunday night and continue through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will slowly approach the Texas coast into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. Little change in strength is expected today. After that, slow strengthening is forecast to occur, and Beta is expected to be at or near hurricane strength Sunday night or Monday.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
- Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
- Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Port Mansfield, TX...1-3 ft
- Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA incl. Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft

Beta has the potential to produce a long-lived rainfall event along the western Gulf Coast. Today through Tuesday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches beginning Saturday across southern Louisiana and spreading into coastal Texas on Sunday. Flash and urban flooding is likely as well as minor river flooding. Additional heavy rainfall amounts across the western Gulf Coast are possible through late week as Beta is expected to move slowly near the Texas coast.

The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 4 p.m. CDT with an intermdiate advisory at 1 p.m.CDT - www.hurricanes.gov

[GCANE]

Tower pretty much can't get any closer to the CoC than this.

[Aric Dunn]

What are the key timeframes? When was the west turn supposed to start? I keep hearing west then NE. Is it still on course?

In general yes. it should still turn west as the ridge builds in.

then another trough drops down but is supposed to begin to become orientated east to west. although some models show it staying tilted NE-SW.

but this was all when Beta was farther south.. with the reforms 2 degrees farther north overnight... that will likely rule out any landfall farther east late in the forecast.

the NHC track is best logical track at this point.

whats left is will it actuall make landfall in texas or not before turning ene to NE.

[edu2703]

What are the key timeframes? When was the west turn supposed to start? I keep hearing west then NE. Is it still on course?

According to NHC, Beta is already starting the westward turn.

[abk_0710]

Is all of Louisiana in the cone because they are not sure where the center will go in? Or is because we will all feel effects in 5 days?