ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

[SoupBone]

Beta looks like complete trash right now. And stationary? Bueller?

[jaguars_22]

It’s dead Jim! Going to be nothing but a smoke spin

[Sciencerocks]

Attached to a front?

[jasons2k]

Some of my thoughts this evening: This is a really difficult forecast in terms of intensity, the effect of the dry air, where any training bands set up, and for how long. In the Houston area, we all know that if we have a tropical low to our west or southwest, it doesn't take long for training bands to start causing flooding issues.

I'm not expecting this storm to be a repeat of Don and I don't think this is going to dissipate and totally bust for SE Texas. So far, it reminds me a lot of TS Bill from 2015, but without the north hook after landfall. It's probably going to fight and struggle with that dry air the whole way, which should keep the intensity in check, but we still need to watch out for the potential flooding threat.

I think one of the keys will be whether or not Beta can establish a sustained core overnight into tomorrow morning. If the storm can establish a persistent, circular core and shear drops off, it has a much better chance of fighting off the dry air. If it continues to just pulse up and down into tomorrow, it's gonna run out of time....

[storm_in_a_teacup]

I know a lot of hippies in Texas. It’s going to get their smoke too. Still raining here.

I know a bunch who calls S.TX "California for Free." LOL

They don't surf much anymore though....I wish California surf here

Hoping for the best from this...but Beta reminds me of an old "or Betta Fish" that refuses to die

She hasn't been around THAT long.

Yeah if your betta fish lasts only as long as a tropical storm you probably aren't taking care of it properly.

[wx98]

Second recon fix is slightly NE of the first. Just drifting around...

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1307488276123717639

[TheStormExpert]

Shear and dry air are winning the battle tonight, might not even make it till morning if this keeps up.

[TheStormExpert]

Beta looks like complete trash right now. And stationary? Bueller?

I'm getting Don (2011) vibes with this one!

It's like the front is trying to drag in northeast but it's refusing to do so.

[TheStormExpert]

It’s dead Jim! Going to be nothing but a smoke spin

Too soon for Bones, just yet. Wait until wxman57 sounds the all clear.

[SoupBone]

I'd love to hear a pros thoughts on this getting shredded enough to merge with the front and head on out? ZERO models show anything like this but does this ever happen? I DO NOT think this will happen with Beta but just curious if it does happen?

[captainbarbossa19]

Beta looks like complete trash right now. And stationary? Bueller?

I'm getting Don (2011) vibes with this one!

It's like the front is trying to drag in northeast but it's refusing to do so.

I am getting more Cindy (2017) vibes. That storm had lots of dry air ingested and most of the convection was displaced hundreds of miles east of the center. This could be a repeat of Don, but I am thinking that it will produce about the same amount of rain Cindy did near its center at landfall. I had about 2-3 inches from Cindy if I remember correctly.

[gqhebert]

I'm curious to see what happens when the trough pulls out and the west motion starts...... it isnt moving west yet.

[Steve]

I'd love to hear a pros thoughts on this getting shredded enough to merge with the front and head on out? ZERO models show anything like this but does this ever happen? I DO NOT think this will happen with Beta but just curious if it does happen?

Energy’s been moving up the front all day, but the rain here and low level clouds are all out the east. Lots of times a piece will shear off with or ahead of a front.

[TheStormExpert]

How on earth does Beta still qualify to be a 50kt. TS? It’s a very hot mess.

[TheStormExpert]

Bones is that you?

The air mass behind the old front appears to have won out. Beta's
circulation is embedded in a dry environment of mid-level
relative humidities around 50 percent, and the air mass could
actually become more stable as Beta moves closer to the Texas
coast. On top of that, the moderate southwesterly shear is not
expected to diminish much at all. As a result, the intensity
guidance has continued to trend downward, and the new official
forecast now flatlines Beta's intensity at 50 kt until landfall
soon after 48 hours. This forecast still lies near the top end of
the guidance envelope, closest to the SHIPS model. After 48 hours,
weakening is expected assuming Beta's center remains over land, and
it is now expected to become a remnant low over Louisiana by day 5.

[Steve]

Good forecast by the NHC. Faster, weaker run to the coast. Intensity models mostly keep TS 48-72 hours. Maybe a model promised pulse on the way.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[Stormcenter]

New convection building around center.

[catskillfire51]

New convection building around center.

Something needs to get going or a lot of models will flop. Don't get me wrong that's for the better!

[jaguars_22]

Looks like the center will pass to my East in Victoria tx leaving us dry!!