ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#761 Postby Chris90 » Sun Sep 20, 2020 3:17 am

Keldeo1997 wrote:
Chris90 wrote:NHC latest discussion mentions that convective cells were forming inside the outer eyewall and that Teddy may be forming an inner eyewall. Teddy may be performing an “inside out” ERC. Can anyone think of any other storms that built a brand new inner eyewall that forced an outer eyewall to collapse? I can’t think of any. This seems like a potentially rare and unique event. I’m eager to see new microwave passes to see what is going on.

ERCs pretty much always work from the outer eyewall choking off the inner. I’ve seen inner remnants put up a fight and keep firing new convection for awhile, but microwave from a few hours ago suggests the old inner eyewall was completely dead, bones had been called. This seems like a brand new eyewall is forming inside the outer one. This season continues to try to do it all.



Actually a Met in a Discord said that angular cyclones (Which is what Teddy was before everything came crash down) have a specific kind of EWRC where the very large eyewall caves in on itself and forms a smaller more Standard Eyewall. This may have just happened. I think what is confusing people is that Angular cyclones are very rare (Last one I remember in the Atlantic was Isabell) so witnessing something like this is crazy. I'm waiting for a Update to this http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2020_20L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_08.html to confirm. This is going to be studied no doubt


Thank you for posting that info. Interesting. I have some reading to do it seems.
Do you happen to know if this is a phenomenon that occurs with a greater frequency in other basins?
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#762 Postby Keldeo1997 » Sun Sep 20, 2020 3:21 am

Chris90 wrote:
Keldeo1997 wrote:
Chris90 wrote:
Thank you for posting that info. Interesting. I have some reading to do it seems.
Do you happen to know if this is a phenomenon that occurs with a greater frequency in other basins?


I'm not sure. This is the first time i've ever seen it
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#763 Postby StAuggy » Sun Sep 20, 2020 6:50 am

Keldeo1997 wrote:
Chris90 wrote:NHC latest discussion mentions that convective cells were forming inside the outer eyewall and that Teddy may be forming an inner eyewall. Teddy may be performing an “inside out” ERC. Can anyone think of any other storms that built a brand new inner eyewall that forced an outer eyewall to collapse? I can’t think of any. This seems like a potentially rare and unique event. I’m eager to see new microwave passes to see what is going on.

ERCs pretty much always work from the outer eyewall choking off the inner. I’ve seen inner remnants put up a fight and keep firing new convection for awhile, but microwave from a few hours ago suggests the old inner eyewall was completely dead, bones had been called. This seems like a brand new eyewall is forming inside the outer one. This season continues to try to do it all.



Actually a Met in a Discord said that angular cyclones (Which is what Teddy was before everything came crash down) have a specific kind of EWRC where the very large eyewall caves in on itself and forms a smaller more Standard Eyewall. This may have just happened. I think what is confusing people is that Angular cyclones are very rare (Last one I remember in the Atlantic was Isabell) so witnessing something like this is crazy. I'm waiting for a Update to this http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2020_20L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_08.html to confirm. This is going to be studied no doubt


I believe Annular is the term you were referring to... not Angular
Last edited by StAuggy on Sun Sep 20, 2020 7:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#764 Postby Do_For_Love » Sun Sep 20, 2020 6:58 am

Downgraded to a Cat 2 with the 8 am advisory
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#765 Postby wx98 » Sun Sep 20, 2020 7:44 am

At this point, Teddy will be down to a Cat 1.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#766 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:41 am

He looks horrific this morning.

Certainly weakening faster than expected. What a bullet dodged by Nova Scotia.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#767 Postby Kazmit » Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:47 am

Looks like how Sally looked before she intensified. Not good.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#768 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:14 am

Yikes, what happened to Teddy’s core? It was so good last night but started falling apart, and now it looks like a train wreck.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#769 Postby AnnularCane » Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:16 am

Poor Teddy Bear has lost some of his stuffing.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#770 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:56 am

I haven't been able to look at sat loops yet today but is that smoke form the California fires still making it all the way to the Atlantic? If so, it could be acting as a "hurricane killer" this season. It seemed to prevent Paulette from becoming a major and now Teddy has completely fallen apart as it moves further north...
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#771 Postby bob rulz » Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:00 am

PavelGaborik10 wrote:He looks horrific this morning.

Certainly weakening faster than expected. What a bullet dodged by Nova Scotia.


Nova Scotia hasn't dodged anything. It still has time over warm water to stop the bleeding - in fact it looks like convection is starting to re-fire over the core. And with each EWRC it undergoes, the wind field expands. Even if this is tropical storm intensity when it strikes Nova Scotia it could still do damage purely based on its size.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#772 Postby Blinhart » Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:03 am

bob rulz wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:He looks horrific this morning.

Certainly weakening faster than expected. What a bullet dodged by Nova Scotia.


Nova Scotia hasn't dodged anything. It still has time over warm water to stop the bleeding - in fact it looks like convection is starting to re-fire over the core. And with each EWRC it undergoes, the wind field expands. Even if this is tropical storm intensity when it strikes Nova Scotia it could still do damage purely based on its size.


this system is still South of Bermuda, so plenty of time for him to strengthen, especially since he has a chance of going over the Gulf Stream if he goes further West than predicted.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#773 Postby FireRat » Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:18 am

Teddy is not falling apart at all, plus he took.a WNW jog this morning. Wobble watching begins for Bermuda IMO. They may get more out of Teddy than originally thought if he keeps this wnw/nw motion.

It looks like Teddy ditched the supersize eye and is now trying to reform a smaller one under recent deep convection right over the center. Perhaps he did come down to a cat 1 but this is brief, should regain Cat 2 and maybe reach 3 again soon.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#774 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 20, 2020 12:10 pm

Teddy is in Paulette's cold wake right now, so SST's are marginal. But the track seems to be farther west - maybe close to or over Bermuda?

As far as intensity, I would estimate 80 kt (pressure 956 mb).
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#775 Postby Kazmit » Sun Sep 20, 2020 12:43 pm

It now looks much better than it did this morning.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#776 Postby storm4u » Sun Sep 20, 2020 12:57 pm

Bermuda might end up getting this
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#777 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:03 pm


Would this be called an anti-EWRC? I’ve never seen a storm that completes an EWRC, gets its new core destroyed, and then reforms a new smaller eyewall.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#778 Postby tiger_deF » Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:04 pm

Eye wall destruction cycle
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#779 Postby Kazmit » Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:52 pm

Bermuda is getting POUNDED by surf right now, I've seen some crazy footage from relatives.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#780 Postby FireRat » Sun Sep 20, 2020 2:39 pm

aspen wrote:

Would this be called an anti-EWRC? I’ve never seen a storm that completes an EWRC, gets its new core destroyed, and then reforms a new smaller eyewall.


Talk about 2020 Vision!
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